CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 12, 2009 07:21 PM UTC
45 Comments
The conservative movement is done.
50% of republicans is insufficient to elect a conservative in which Democrats and independents also vote.
This is the way of the suicide.
Please GOP, I need you to be a credible option for people, because if you are not Democrats win by default and we never have a discussion over actual issues.
In the long run, Dems need a viable opponent, because unopposed parties become corrupt. But for now, I’m not too worried. Many of the people fleeing the Repub party are becoming moderate-conservative Dems (and there are already plenty of moderate-conservative Dems). There will be plenty of arguing and debating among the different branches of the Dem party.
We feel about Snowe the same way you guys felt about Lieberman.
We don’t need a far-right R up there, but we do need an actual R.
And if Snowe is as politically savvy as she appears, she’ll do what Specter did and change party affiliation soon in order to build up enough good will and trust with Democrats to avoid a primary with them.
If she does it now, she has 3 years and loads of political capital. If she waits until HCR passes or worse, she helps filibuster and then switches parties, Dems will punish her big time in 2012.
And only slightly off topic but since we’re talking about Lieberman here, I got into a major dispute on DKos about the New York State Party stripping Dede of her chairmanship as punishment for endorsing Owens. I pointed out that Dems had called for our Party to do the same thing to Lieberman and that is the price you pay for disloyalty. Don’t get me wrong–I’m thrilled she endorsed Owens but when you betray your party the way she and Joe have, you lose the right to your titles and seniority on committees. There have to be consequences for actions.
I did find it amusing that so many Daily Kos posters argued and howled about how horrible it was that the Republican State Party immediately pulled her committee chair but refused to acknowledge that they had called for the exact same action 10 months ago for Lieberman when he openly endorsed and campaigned for McCain.
I kind of admire the NY Republican State Party–no fucking around here. Just boom. Lower the hammer. The Dems could take a lesson from them. They left Lieberman in place and now he’s their biggest obstacle in a filibuster.
but Governor Baldacci is term limited in 2010, and while he would likely nto be able to take Snowe out in a general election, he probably could knock her off in a Democratic primary. Because of this, she’d be better off to go independent.
She’s not switching parties.
Maine is not moving far right.
That didn’t apply in the upstate N.Y. special election last week?
I know you didn’t consider Scozzafava to be an actual “R”, but she was a vote to install Boehner as Speaker. She would also move the Repubs one vote closer majority control of all committees. When all is said and done, isn’t that what matters?
We need to clean house. Any R that’s pro EFCA has got to go. That’s just so against what we’re supposed to be about. I don’t care about the pro choice stuff, and I’m a pro-gay marriage R, but the unions are never going to do anything that’s even remotely good for Republicans.
Pro card check is a ticket out.
Weekends aren’t good for Republicans? Why not?
What year did the unions fight for weekends?
you pro-gay-marriage types. Why is the tent big enough for you but not for Scozzafava?
If they start quoting Leviticus, I ask them if they’ve ever played football.
I approach them from the “keep the government out of my life” angle. Most of the time they just say “Well, I’m just not comfortable with that, but I see where you’re coming from.” and it’s a minority of R’s I interact with.
I also don’t see the venom coming from those folks as much as I see it from the angry left. I think most of them honestly don’t think they know any gay folks (which obviously they do).
I was different when I was young, mostly out of fear and ignorance. But I know so many amazing gay couples that I just adore and have great times with. Their marriage has no effect on the sanctity of mine. FOr God’s sake, I couldn’t imagine not being allowed to see my partner if they were injured, which happened to a good buddy of mine. It’s unconscionable.
Plus, the R’s don’t have a choice but to fucking accept me in their tent. It’s one of the reasons I’m politically active is to stand up to the tiny number of racists and homophobes that make us look so bad. I haven’t really encountered too many of either, to be honest, but I’m not a lunatic, and I don’t hang in lunatic circles.
Except Pols, of course.
On a totally unrelated note, Ted Haggard started his Thursday night prayer service in his home this evening.
http://www.denverpost.com/
I wonder how he’s going to live the rest of his life?
DO you think he’ll come out at some point?
The Post article says, “Haggard, who developed an anti-gay reputation over the years, told KMGH-TV in an interview Wednesday that he has more compassion for gays because of his trials in recent years.”
At the same time, he insists that he’s straight with issues.
Indeed!
I usually disagree with you (I can’t help it, since you’re usually wrong and I’m usually right) but when you hit it, you really do. That was very well said
Snowe represents a blue state. If you primary her, chances are the Dem in the race will beat your candidate.
But Lieberman also represents a blue state. If there’d been a Sore Loser law in Connecticut, Lamont would probably have won.
The smart thinking is to primary people who don’t represent their district/state. The ones who do should be left alone as long as they still vote for the leadership.
I think that most of the people calling for Lieberman to lose his committee positions are not doing so because he endorsed McCain. They are doing so because he is not a Democrat at all; because they worked their butts off to get the party to nominate someone, which the party did, and then he left the party to run against that person. Everything else Lieberman does is basically just an excuse to respond to that.
But in the end, it’s good. If successful it will mean a continuation of the slow landslide in the R party that will see the fringe right get their own fringe party that can’t win national majorities and so ceases to be a viable partner in the two-party system. Something else more moderate and reasonable will come up and take its place. Parties come and go and it happens along the geologic time scale, not the human time scale, but it does happen.
What scares me is the willingness to be violent by those leading the charge. There are certainly enough people on the right willing to force a violent coming to terms over their belief that the U.S. is going in the wrong direction. The question is, will enough currently reasonable people join with them to start what could turn into a modern civil war? Seems very unlikely right now, but seems possible enough to scare the hell out of me.
we then had the Civil War. If the Republican right-wing does slide off into irrelevance, it will do so violently. They were in charge and view themselves as the only “true Americans.” That’s a very volatile combination.
I’m not an expert on Maine politics (or even Colorado politics), but Snowe seems like enough of an institution in the state to win a general as an independent, especially if her GOP opponent is way off to the right.
I don’t know that I’d usually use the phrase “pulling a Lieberman” in a positive light, but I think it just might be applicable to Snowe here.
On the other hand, most of her constituents are for a public option. If she can be knocked off in favor of a Dem, I certainly won’t miss her. When push comes to shove, she still goes with the far right GOP leadership.
Where did all this courting of her one vote so we could call it bi-partisan get us? There just aren’t enough moderate Rs to do any good anymore. Better to let the GOP shrink down to its lowest common denominator core and be done with it for a decade.
From the PPP poll, some numbers:
Her overall approval rating is hovering at 50% which we all know is a red flag, if she drops below that number.
If she was smart, she’d use her political capital to cross over and change parties now and build on her good numbers with Dems. Let the Republicans find a new Republican candidate for 2012. If she waits too long, she very well could be primaried out and that’s the point here. Not how she will do in a general election but how the Republican Party could purge her in a primary.
would be a big red flag in a two-way race. But against a Democrat and conservative Republican at the same time? When she has a 60% approval rating among Dems and a 51% approval rating among independents? Put all my cash on Olympia Snowe.
she could caucus with Ds.
with Rs. I wouldn’t have a problem with that.
And that’s the entire point of the diary and the linked article above. They are trying to get rid of her. The last thing they want to do is align with her, caucus with her or run with her as a candidate in 2012.
and offers to vote with the Republican party procedurally, I’m sure they won’t say no. The real question is what she’s ask for in terms of committee positions, and what either party would offer.
Ask Lincoln Chafee, who was in exactly the same situation in 2006.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talk…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S…
Maine, like most states, has a sore loser law which states that the loser of a primary cannot then go on and run as a member of another party. If Snowe is beaten in the primary, she’s done as a Senator.
The only reason Senator Palpatine was able to do so was because Connecticut is one of the few states without such a law.
This is the reason Specter decided to switch parties before facing Toomey in the Republican primary. Pennsylvania has the same sort of law.
You made it much better than I did. Would you mind if I added your comment at the top to this diary?
Thanks for the info. Middle of the Road has got it right, then – she’d be better off dropping the R tag before a primary, if the conservative base can get a red enough, sane enough, well enough known candidate.
She’ll want to do it soon, for the reasons stated above. If she decides to go the Maine for Snowe route, she can probably wait it out and she’ll probably do okay, though it will be a competitive race with the Democratic candidate.
Thanks, sxp. She can either cross over or declare herself an indie before the primary, though.
And we’ll give the repubs Lieberman in exchange!
Hell, we’ll happily give them Big Joe even if they don’t give us Snowe. 🙂
What’s the big deal about keeping Lieberman in our caucus? We have the majority without him and don’t have 60 with him. He brags about plans to support R candidates against Ds. May have been a reason to put up with the turncoat once but not anymore.
there are 37 seats up in 2010.
34 regularly scheduled expirations, and 3 special elections, 1 in Jan and 2 in Nov.
Of those- I got 11 or 12 as a toss up.
Meaning the D majority 58/40 is at risk. Lose one or two and it makes the 60 harder. Gain one or two and then Senator Palpatine becomes much more irrelevant.
Lose 5 or 6- yikes.
CO, BTW, is in the middle. Outsiders universally see Bennet’s seat in play. 2004 Salazar won 52/48. 2008 Udall did a little better. 2010? I don’t take it for granted- Bennet is in for a tough primary – and if he wins the the nomination, I don’t see any scenario where the general is a walk.
contribute to the 60 on any of the most important issues. He was important when he personally gave us the majority by a whisker which gave us committee leadership. If all the toss ups go to Rs (I don’t believe for a second that will happen) Dems are screwed regardless of Lieberman who does us no good on our core issues anyway.
As has been amply demonstrated, 60 doesn’t necessarily mean 60. It never will unless the administration and Dem Senate leadership get a whole lot tougher and scarier. Independent voting is one thing but as long as conservative Dems feel free to go so far as to filibuster against their own administration and leadership (moderate Rs never dared under R leadership) with impunity, 60 is just a number and Lieberman is just getting away with self aggrandizing murder for no good reason.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
He’s still a total asshole, but not always useless to Democrats.
and not sure what a raging success the package has been to working America. Not that we didn’t need a stimulus and not that certain disasters weren’t averted but so many concessions were made and so little done to fundamentally change anything in a way that might cause the least pain to Wall Street in favor of Main Street.
Just read that the turbines for big new American wind farms are being manufactured in China. Isn’t the new energy economy supposed to create great new jobs here? Shouldn’t we even try to make anything anymore for national security reasons if nothing else?
Still have nothing to prevent the need for more middle class tax payer funded socialism for rich Masters of the Universe in the future. Except of course middle class rage. Maybe next time they tell us we need to pass a stimulus or bust we’ll just say screw it and take as many of the rich corporate bastards down with us as we can.