April 20, 2026 02:18 PM UTC

Could Democrats Actually Win Control of BOTH Chambers of Congress?

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• by: Colorado Pols

President Trump’s approval ratings reach a new low seemingly every week. Democrats are widely expected to take back control of the House of Representatives in November. In races large and small, Democrats have flipped every single competitive election in the country since Trump was re-elected in 2024, often by eyebrow-raising margins.

And yet…even the most optimistic Democrats have been reluctant to say that the U.S. Senate might actually be in play in 2026. Democrats would need to flip a minimum of four seats — two of which are in red states — in order to gain a majority in the Senate. As The New York Times reports today, maybe it’s time to believe:

In today’s polarized era, Democrats would need everything to break their way.

So far, everything is breaking the Democrats’ way. With Mr. Trump’s approval rating falling and inflation rising, along with the uncertainty of a war in the Middle East, it’s not hard to imagine a Democratic tsunami in November. A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured to flip two reliably Republican states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.

In recent polls, Democrats appear tied or ahead in four Republican-controlled seats — the number they would need to take the Senate. These include Maine and North Carolina, where the likely Democratic nominees hold clear leads, as well as Ohio and Alaska, where Democrats have recruited strong candidates in states Mr. Trump won by double digits in 2024. There are also signs that Republicans could be in danger in two more states where Mr. Trump won by double digits: Iowa and Texas.

The Times cites a strong candidate recruitment effort for much of the optimism surrounding 2026 — particularly in Ohio, North Carolina, and Alaska. But just as important is the overall mood of the American electorate after 15 months of broken promises from Trump that have given way to unnecessary foreign conflicts and a sour economy.

As POLITICO reports, the numbers keep getting better for Democrats:

A POLITICO analysis of 229 state and federal elections since Trump’s inauguration shows Democratic candidates outperformed Harris in 193 of them. On average, Democratic candidates overperformed Harris by 5 points. In a handful of special elections, they have pulled more than 20 points to the left.

It is a warning sign for Republicans that has continued to flash across the country every few weeks. Consistent overperformances in special elections have been an indicator of midterm shifts in the past, and the trend over the last 15 months is particularly strong. In the two-year cycle of special elections heading into 2018, margins shifted to the left in about two-thirds of special elections, according to The Downballot. In November of that year, Democrats netted 40 seats…

…The data reveals that Democrats’ improvements are not just a product of partisan voters in deep-blue areas: Most were in districts where Trump beat Harris. The largest gain was in a Trump-won Brooklyn state Senate district where the Democratic candidate improved on Harris’ vote share by 45 percentage points, followed by state legislative races in Rhode Island and Oklahoma that swung 28 and 27 points, respectively.

We’re not quite ready ourselves to proclaim that control of the U.S. Senate is truly on the table in 2026, but we also didn’t think we’d even be talking about such a scenario with seven months to go until Election Day.