January 26, 2012 08:59 PM UTC

Poll: Tipton's Got Sal Pace Right Where Pace Wants Him

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• by: Colorado Pols

The Pueblo Chieftain’s Patrick Malone–known locally as “the good one”–reports:

Public Policy Polling conducted the survey during the past week in battleground districts where Republican incumbents are vulnerable. Overall, the poll showed Democrats hold the upper hand, but voters in the 3rd currently favor Tipton (46 percent) over Pace (39 percent).

The poll forecasts that Pace, a state representative from Pueblo, will gain ground as his name recognition grows. The poll showed Tipton’s approval rating to be 36 percent with 40 percent of voters giving him low marks.

Collectively in the 3rd, 37 percent of voters polled have a favorable opinion of Republicans in the U.S. House, while 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion of them.

As we’ve always said about polls early in the election cycle, the key indicators here are that of favorability and name recognition–and more importantly, the relationship between the two. There’s no question that Democrat Sal Pace has work to do building name recognition, particularly outside his home base in Pueblo. But this poll’s underwater unfavorables for both Rep. Scott Tipton personally and Republicans in the House in general tell us that incumbency has only temporary benefit for Tipton as Pace builds name ID. And those voters in CD-3 tuned in to politics, a number that will only grow, are not real happy with Tipton.

PPP’s Tom Jensen himself noted the poll question that may matter most this early, which for whatever reason Malone of the Chieftain neglected to mention:

In Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, 39% of voters support freshman Scott Tipton for reelection, while 54% think he should be replaced. [Pols emphasis]

Folks, if you care about polls right now at all, you look for imbalances. The gap between Scott Tipton’s unfavorables and Sal Pace’s low name ID will not close in a way favorable to Tipton.