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January 26, 2012 08:59 PM UTC

Poll: Tipton's Got Sal Pace Right Where Pace Wants Him

  • 57 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

The Pueblo Chieftain’s Patrick Malone–known locally as “the good one”–reports:

Public Policy Polling conducted the survey during the past week in battleground districts where Republican incumbents are vulnerable. Overall, the poll showed Democrats hold the upper hand, but voters in the 3rd currently favor Tipton (46 percent) over Pace (39 percent).

The poll forecasts that Pace, a state representative from Pueblo, will gain ground as his name recognition grows. The poll showed Tipton’s approval rating to be 36 percent with 40 percent of voters giving him low marks.

Collectively in the 3rd, 37 percent of voters polled have a favorable opinion of Republicans in the U.S. House, while 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion of them.

As we’ve always said about polls early in the election cycle, the key indicators here are that of favorability and name recognition–and more importantly, the relationship between the two. There’s no question that Democrat Sal Pace has work to do building name recognition, particularly outside his home base in Pueblo. But this poll’s underwater unfavorables for both Rep. Scott Tipton personally and Republicans in the House in general tell us that incumbency has only temporary benefit for Tipton as Pace builds name ID. And those voters in CD-3 tuned in to politics, a number that will only grow, are not real happy with Tipton.

PPP’s Tom Jensen himself noted the poll question that may matter most this early, which for whatever reason Malone of the Chieftain neglected to mention:

In Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, 39% of voters support freshman Scott Tipton for reelection, while 54% think he should be replaced. [Pols emphasis]

Folks, if you care about polls right now at all, you look for imbalances. The gap between Scott Tipton’s unfavorables and Sal Pace’s low name ID will not close in a way favorable to Tipton.

Comments

57 thoughts on “Poll: Tipton’s Got Sal Pace Right Where Pace Wants Him

    1. It’s a significant number of people who Tipton must convince he deserves reelection according to this Democrat poll. I would say some of those who say Tipton should not be reelected will become Pace supporters, and that will indeed make this a close race. That’s what Pols is saying and I basically agree.

      What you’re saying is that Pace needs to grow positive ID, and that’s going to be a problem for him once the good people of the western slope learn about Pace’s disgusting criminal record. Breaking and entering, public urination. That’s name ID Pace doesn’t need, and Pols may not be accounting for that.

      1. It was a West Slope Republican, then-Representative Steve “Hollywood” King, who ran HB10-1334, the bill that decriminalized pissing on a tree.

        Out here in the hinterlands, most of us have to do it from time to time.  It doesn’t upset anyone except the people who write your talking points for you.

        1. In the forest, on a tree, I completely agree, is one thing.

          Repeatedly on east Colfax because you’re too drunk to find a bathroom is quite another, my friend. I’m amused but also a little grossed out that you don’t see the difference.

          1. in spite of all he has done, you can’t really begrudge anyone for supporting Sal Pace.  

            Very selective outrage going on there, but predictable.

              1. Then I certainly understand your need to go negative.

                By now, with an incumbent, a campaign ought to be stressing his accomplishments.

                Unfortunately for Tipton, that list is nonexistent.

              2. I remember the article about politicians with police records. The urination happened when he was 18, and when half the male denizens of Capitol Hill also pissed in the alleyways on a regular basis.

                I guess if you have to lie instead of talk about the issues, you must be in real trouble.

                1. http://www.coloradopeakpolitic

                  August 15, 2003 Pace was arrested for public urination, his second charge for public urination. He pled guilty.

                  April 20, 1996 Pace was arrested for obscene conduct, which Pace has confirmed was for public urination.

                  October 5, 1995 Pace was arrested and jailed for felony burglary in the 3rd degree and larceny, which Pace has said was for attempting to steal from his dorm’s vending machine.

                  In 2003, eight years after his arrest at 18 for burglary, and while employed as an aide to Rep. John Salazar, Pace pled guilty to public urination.

                  Please correct your false statements.

                    1. The Denver Post did a write up last year about candidates that had past records. They reported on the first two incidents which occurred in 1995. Westword gave a nod to CPP for discovering the 3rd incident which occurred in 2003.

                      Sal’s last arrest was in August 2003 and the Court issued a warrant for failure to appear on August 29th, 2003.

                    2. and it doesn’t mention the second incident.

                      Anyway, you can see what I said in response to Ed Rollins on the matter. But thank you.

                  1. Guess a smear from a two-bit hit-piece blog was the best he could find. Funny, since A-BOT is always going on and on calling stories here “hit pieces.”

                    To me, it is truly fascinating how Republicans always accuse others of the crimes they commit routinely. This is just one more example.

                    1. Wasn’t he part of the Democratic leadership in the house?

                      What kind of legislation did he introduce that got enacted?

                    2. This is certainly more substantial… but not the most damning thing I’ve ever read. Especially since it comes from CPP’s server – can we trust that everything’s on the level?

                      Well, never mind. He peed in public again at age 26 – something that was not covered by the big Post article, which certainly brings up questions about why it didn’t merit mention when his earlier troubles did.

                      Mea culpa, A-BOT. It appears that you’ve got this one bit factually correct.

                      But let’s talk about what this means for a minute. You frothed yourself up calling this “disgusting,” but several actual CD-3 residents have given you a big yawn so far.

                      I haven’t lived in that district, but I can relate a story about its residents. I briefly dated a girl from Fruita in the 90s. She told me that her dad moved there because, in his words, he wanted to live “someplace where I can piss from the front porch if I want to.”

                      Fruita is just one town in CD-3, so take that for what it’s worth. But a pattern of disinterest in the matter of public urination, perhaps even an embrace of it, among the residents of CD-2 is emerging.

                      So, once again, A-BOT, good luck. The early resort to character assassination rather than substantive debate about qualifications speaks volumes to the GOP’s nervousness about this race.

                    3. Liam Neeson is a serial pants wetter, at least once when he had to stop pissing on a building when the photogs showed up. I’m sure his new movie will open to empty theaters in CD4. Who wants to pay to see a guy who pees outside?!

                      http://scallywagandvagabond.co

                      http://videogum.com/414162/lia

                      I’d love to put a line in here about how movie stars and politicians are different, but it would be about how way more people know who Neeson is than either candidate…

                    4. is that Pace masturbated in high school.  A-BOT will probably have a list of the number of times and sperm count.

                      Amazing how an amateur blogger has such detailed information so readily available.  Gosh you don’t think that he is being feed Republican opposition research do you?

                    5. If that was a really long way of saying “you’re right, I’m sorry for being wrong,” I accept.

                      I agree that there will be more substantial things to debate than Sal Pace’s criminal record, as long as you agree there may be more apprehension to public urinating on the western slope than three anonymous liberals who say they’re from that region can yellowwash.

                      I have a sense of humor! If you’re going to lose arguments as often as you do, you should develop one.

                    6. Not “anonymous,” dippy.

                      Take our words any way you want to – just keep in mind that they’re the experiences of people who either live there or know people who did; you likely live in a gated community, where such behavior is scandalous! Scandalous, I tell you! As bad as planting the petunias next to the marigolds!

                      I wouldn’t do any victory laps just yet. I’m sure it’s a tremendous rush, but your record of spin and dishonesty wasn’t erased by using a single fact on one occasion. If you think you’re ready to keep rolling, you’ll have to make a habit of telling the truth, and using facts to bolster your arguments. I’m not sure you’re up to it… See, below you’re already going after gertie and demanding apologies, when you gave Phoenix Rising a bunch of undeserved shit yesterday.

                      I’d say I’m bloodied but unbowed, but it’s just a scratch.

          1. because they don’t have any accomplishments to talk about.  We’ll see if the voters in CD 3 care about Tipton’s dismal record and support for tainted water from fracking or whether they are concerned about character issues from the past.

            It shouldn’t be any different from any previous race.  Republicans go negative because they don’t have anything positive to talk about.  Yawn.

          2. the Western Slope. Or Western Slope guys.

            Pace’s record won’t be the big thing you seem to think it is.

            That said, he needs to get his butt over here, and generate some publicity when he’s here.

            1. I just want to note that you people first denied the facts, then switched to “it won’t matter” when you couldn’t deny the facts any more.

              I believe you accuse Republicans of behaving that way all the time.

              Mea culpa?

              1. why Tipton’s unfavorable rating is so high?

                54% of the people surveyed don’t think he deserves to go back to Congress.  For a toady who loves smelling Republican assholes, you never offered a reason why so many people think he sucks at being a Congressman.  I’d say it was simply poor performance by someone who has no clue what a sustainable job looks like.

                1. acting like a fool while drunk, sounds like it could be Tipton.  But I’m sure ArapGoon has nothing to offer on why Tipton, without such problems in his record, suffers such high disapproval and low approval ratings. Could it be he’s doing a lousy job for his constituents?  

                  1.  but ‘pubs don’t usually worry about job performance by their anointed. When you add it to the fact that he is a revolving asshole, it takes it over the top…even for the enlightened republican community of CD3.  

        1. Piss in the backyard.  Especially on poker night. In fact I predict that in approximately 5 hours, I will do so again.

          I am not all the way on the west slope, but know more than one person who purchased the home they did so they could go for a walk and piss when the moment struck them right.

          I do agree that the great outdoors is different than a street corner in Lodo, but I also am guilty (but never caught) of relieving myself on the way back from the bar in downtown Denver, or other urban areas I have occasion to visit.  Not worried about pollution; after that quantity, it is pretty well diluted.

          I don’t hold that against Sal, and wish I could vote for him.  But, still stuck with Lamebrain until he gets caught with a suitcase of coke and a gay hooker.

          1. multilevel parking lots are good. But, not as satisfying as one’s yard or driveway. Have you noticed that your urine oxidizes faster than your dog’s?

  1. But a minus 4 net favorability rating for an incumbent is bad. Any time it’s below 50% it’s not great, but 36% is miserable. The minus 12 rating for Congressional Republicans is very poor as well.

    Some things to keep in mind:

    • Tipton’s negatives have been fairly widely reported, whereas Pace’s negatives are very easily exploited and haven’t been reported as widely as Tipton’s. They’re out there, but when they start popping up in mailers, they will not help him. You can make the argument about youthful indiscretions, but it’s going to hurt.
    • The margin of error means that Tipton is ahead by no more than 11.5 points and no less than 3.5 points. 7 points down is nothing to write home about, but if Pace can work up his name rec–which he undoubtedly should be able to, given that his fundraising is the best of the three state legislators running for Congress–then he can definitely make this one close.
    • Of the two competitive races with potential to flip towards the Dems, this one looks to be the most winnable. It shouldn’t be, but there are a lot of factors that make CD-3 look like the better shot for the D-trip than CD-6.

    And for people who are questioning PPP as a legitimate pollster, I would disagree. They are highly accurate. There are several partisan pollsters, some are less accurate than others, but it’s not really based on being partisan. People don’t pay good money for a race to be polled so that they can hear pleasant sounding lies. They want accuracy.

    1. It may have people who lean Democratic at the top, but unlike Strategic Vision or Research 2000, which were caught faking data, or Rasmussen, whose early polls last time around were at least statistically suspect, no-one that I know has reported any anomalies about PPP’s results.

      Daily Kos, which is one of PPP’s clients, insists on fully open data sets from PPP because they were burned by R2K, and they are on the lookout for any issues, down to and including bias and inaccuracy.

      Of course, it’s all a talking point from AGOP anyway – we’ve been over this ground before.

  2. dollar job creator project for buses to Aspen?

    I remember he was having a hissy fit over $9,000 wi-fi systems on the buses so people could check their email on the ride to work but I don’t remember seeing if it was killed outright.

  3. This is typical Republican BS – but Democrats are also to blame when they let it happen:

    The article is about bad news for Tipton. But ArapaGOP posts a response early on mentioning that Sal Pace was arrested for taking a leak in public nearly a decade ago, and suddenly that’s what everyone is talking about – at length.

    It’s a very effective strategy, and ArapaGOP does it over and over again: he lobs one early post, a feint as it were, and all his Democratic opponents fall all over themselves chasing it.

    It’s too late to undo the damage on this post, but beware ArapaGOP’s tactics on future ones.

    1. but part of the fun of posting here is the back and forth smack talking.

      It is obvious the guy has talking points prepared for him to use but it is also fun to see the replies.  Beej and H-man were similar operatives and the new ones they hire will follow the same pattern.

      I wouldn’t be too concerned about him hijacking threads.  You have to poke fun at the asshole you have not the ones you wish you had.

      1. In the end, I still prefer someone like beej*, who was really speaking for himself, over someone like H-man or A-BOT, who let themselves be used by their superiors.

        * Beej is a poseur – he wanted (and still wants) to be an important player in a campaign, but he lacks the discipline shown by guys like A-BOT to stick with a message, not give back the abuse he takes, etc. Also, Beej WANTS everyone to know who he is. Ops have to be psudonymous and not give away whom they work for.

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