September 07, 2010 09:35 PM UTC

Forget the Trends - It's Still About Candidate Matchups

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• by: Colorado Pols

It’s no secret that national polling has shown Republicans with a big advantage over Democrats in a generic preference matchup, and that advantage should lead Republicans to pick up more seats than Democrats in races around the country. National and local media outlets have gone gaga repeating this news over and over again. But we say “should” for good reason, because national polls have also shown that while voters don’t really like Democrats, they don’t like Republicans, either (hence the big third-party advantage in the most recent Colorado poll).

What this all points to is the same thing we’ve been discussing here for months: At the end of the day, the most important question is still how “Candidate A” compares to “Candidate B.” National trends and general anger/unease are important, but voters still have to pick between two (or more) names on their ballot.

There’s a great example of this than in Texas, where Democrat Bill White is running neck-and-neck with Republican Governor Rick Perry, according to a Republican poll:

A statewide public opinion survey conducted by Republican polling firm Hill Research Consultants on behalf of the Texas Watch Foundation reveals an electorate divided between incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry (42%) and Democratic challenger Bill White (41%), with a significant bloc of voters (14%) still uncommitted to either candidate.

Texas voters haven’t elected a Democrat for governor or U.S. Senate in 20 years (Gov. Ann Richards). They haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988 (Sen. Lloyd Bentsen). In the 2008 Presidential election, nearly 1 million more people voted for Republican John McCain than Democrat Barack Obama. Yet in 2010, a Democrat is in a dead-heat with a Republican incumbent for governor. If the Texas gubernatorial race was between “Generic Republican” and “Generic Democrat,” then the Republicans would win in a landslide. But it’s not. Voters still have to pick a name on their ballot.

We won’t deny that there is a Republican advantage in 2010, and perhaps a significant one at that. But as we’ve said time and again, which is reflected in The Big Line, none of these generic trends matter once voters have their ballots in front of them.