Ted Harvey, We Hardly Knew Ye

Ted in the race

Who does he take voted from if he hangs on just to stay in the race?

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by: Coloradobaywatch @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 17:33:53 PM UTC

It's just my guess

with no data to back it up, but I suspect Harvey would draw disproportionately from Armstrong.  Coffman, the best known of the three, has a unique standing as a citizen-soldier and I think his appeal to veterans and other national security Republicans makes his base more solid than either of his rivals.  

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by: bob ewegen @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 18:25:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He is a ...

person that only cares about himself.

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by: guesswho @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 21:00:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ted Can Win

Mike Coffman cannot go one week without a negative news story.

Will Armstrong has never held a real job. Armstrong has neither the brains nor the passion for winning that his Father had and still has.

Steve Ward may not get enough petition signatures to even make the ballot.

Ted Harvey is the principled conservative in this race. The only true principled conservative. Ted Harvey talks the talk and walks the walk. Ted Harvey could be the surprise upset winner. Even if he is outspent Harvey can let Armstrong and Coffman destroy each other while he stays on message. Harvey does need to raise more money. Harvey will never compete with the others dollar for dollar but he doesn't have to.  

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by: Unbiased Observer @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 20:40:20 PM UTC

Harvey's fundraising is more pathetic than

Ward painting himself as a democrat. Harvey may do well among delegates in Douglas County. However, to do well among the 75,000 likely primary voters, he will need money to boost his poor name id and tighten the polls. He will not raise enough money to be a serious contender. Fortunately, he will remain in the state senate.  

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by: samsnead @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 20:50:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly

At this rate, Harvey won't be able to go on TV. If Coffman and Armstrong are both on TV, and Harvey is not, then he has no chance.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 20:52:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

'Uneducated' Observer

First of all, Ward is going through the assembly.  It's ironic that you say Armstrong has never 'held a real job.'

Coffman will do whatever he can to hold on to public office.  Even run for congress twice before only to pull out when it looked too tough.  Then run for SOS.  What courage.

And now he's bailing out on Republicans and giving the SOS to Romanoff/Gordon.  Can't say he ever did anything FOR the party, but at least he can say he did something TO the party.

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by: Scissorhands @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 19:47:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why is it ironic

that Armstrong has never held a real job? Most republicans politicians never held (by your standards) "real jobs."

I happen to think being a public servant takes courage and is an extremely difficult job.  

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

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by: Go Blue @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 21:28:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Coffman certainly could self-destruct.

But that doesn't mean that Ted wins.

The average contribution per Republican donor in CD-6 probably doesn't differ all that much from candidate to candidate.

While it is only a rough proxy, dollars contributed is a proxy for the number of active supporters a candidate has beating the bushes for him.

Coffman and Armstrong each have about five times as many active supporters as Harvey.

There is a natural tendency for primary votes to be divided more equally than campaign money (if for no reason other than random guesses by uninformed primary voters) but the relative levels of contributions are usually roughly in line with relative primary support.

Even if Coffman dropped out and Harvey won half of Coffman's supporters, Armstrong would probably cruise to victory in the primary.  Harvey would need the vast majority of Coffman supporters in the event of an implosion to win.

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by: ohwilleke @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 21:09:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looks like

George Costanza's crystal ball may have been a little fuzzy when he decided to get in this race. Maybe next time he will consult Miss Cleo first.  

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by: jimmypilgrim @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 20:54:42 PM UTC

turnout will be low and that benefits Ted

Turnout will be under 50,000. If Harvey can pick up his campaign the base he has with conservative voters might be enough to win, no pun intended by a hair,  

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by: Unbiased Observer @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 20:58:28 PM UTC

Why would turnout be low?

This is the first big primary CD-5 has had in a decade.

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by: Colorado Pols @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 21:16:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

CD-6 Maybe

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by: jetblue @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 21:37:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wishing won't make it so

I'm sorry Unbiased Observer but the fact that you and 5 others think he has a chance will not translate into more than 5 votes.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 21:40:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You r not unbiased

To say that turnout for CD 6 would be below 50,000 is nonsense. First off this is a Presidential year. Secondly, this is the first time there has been a competitive primary in over 10 years for this district. Lastly, the clerks in the 3 biggest counties for this district(Douglas,Jeffco,Arapahoe)are mailing out early voting forms to all Registered Republicans.  

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by: samsnead @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:09:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

compare

Look at turnout in the Musgrave primary win in 2002 the Tancredo primary win in 1996 and the turnout in this Congressional District in the Schaffer vs. Coors primary in 2004. There are no presidential candidates on the August 12 ballot. There is no way based on past history that turnout will exceed 50,000. 35,000 to 40,000 is more likely. Low turnout benefits Ted Harvey.

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by: Unbiased Observer @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:23:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's got a point

There's no "top of the ticket" races (at this point) to help turnout on our side.  The only thing that I could see happening is if Romney supporters somehow get his name on the ballot and there is a race between McCain and Romney.  But that's highly unlikely.  Every other state race will be a rubber stamp.

Having said that though, CD-5 managed over 50k for turnout last cycle...

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by: Haners @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 16:07:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Life at fertilization

I sort of thought that was being used almost solely as a poll pull.

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by: shrubsrock @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 16:34:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From what I've heard

It may not even get on the ballot.  And that would be the general election ballot, not the primary one

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by: Haners @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 18:33:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Coffman is the clear favorite

No way did I think Coffman would out raise Armstrong 2 quarters in a row. The fact that he has only demonstrates broad support from the donors throughout the state. At this rate I don't see how anyone else is a realistic threat.  

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by: fathawk @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:13:44 PM UTC

I think turn out will be in the 65K - 75k range

Even at 50k Coffman will win by 10-15% over his nearest rival which I think is Harvey. Sen. Harvey is the only other candidate who has ever been on the ballot and has a base of supporters.
I have been surprised Coffman has been able to  out raise Armstrong.That fact along with his name ID and coupled with voters in the district have seen his name on the ballot 3 times before should give him a nice victory.

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by: WashParkPoet @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 04:33:50 AM UTC

Turnout

will be high.  But even a low turnout would help Ted in this case.  He can only win at the assembly.  No one else has neither heard of him nor will they because he doesn't have the money to talk to them.

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by: Scissorhands @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 19:43:36 PM UTC

But even a low turnout would help Ted

did you mean "wouldn't" help Ted? It seems more in keeping with the rest of your analysis.  

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by: bob ewegen @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 23:30:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

anyone else see Ted Harvey's latest brain fart of a legislative proposal?

...he wants to amend the state constitution to prohibit DAs from offering illegal immigrants plea bargains to agricultural trespass (Senate Concurrent Resolution 08-004).
  Reason people can argue the pros and cons of limiting plea bargain and sentencing discretion.  We have plenty of statutes that limit charge and sentence concession, like in DUI and domestic violence.  But they're statutes, not constitutional amendments!
 With his piddley $21,000 in the bank, this guy must be really desperate for some free media attention.

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by: One Queer Dude @ Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 01:49:42 AM UTC

Price

This sounds like it would break the budget, or would require extreme cuts in Education, Health Care and Transportation to fund it. This is probably more of campaign strategy rather than good public policy.

Harvey has always been a fringe republican who has accomplished... well I can't think of anything he's done for this state which might be a good thing!

"Suddenly, it may be cool to be American again" - William J. Kole

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by: Go Blue @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 21:32:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]