Tancredo Won't Run for CD-6 Re-Election

Oh happy day...

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 13:30:37 PM UTC

Could a moderate beat the Repulsive Republican Radicals?

If enough social radicals run, maybe a real Republican could win the nomination. Is there such a candidate?

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by: Another skeptic @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 17:07:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Candy Figa, Lynn Cottrell,

Figa can't get elected to the legislature. Lynn's never run for office that I know. She's a great volunteer.

I just don't know any of these people who are considered leading candidates.

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by: Another skeptic @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 17:11:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

props to Bill Winter

.
for doing his civic duty.
.

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by: Barron X @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 13:40:19 PM UTC

let's not pop the champagne corks yet....

  This could turn out to be like his term-limits pledge....another broken promise.
  If he goes through with retiring, it'll be great.  An 18-way primary in C.D. 6 will suck up lots of money.  Between the GOP primary in C.D. 6 and the grudge re-match in C.D. 5, the Republican legislative leadership and B.S. will be struggling for money!
  As for whom the Dems should run in C.D. 6, any chance newly-minted Democratic state Rep. Debbie Stafford will step up to the plate?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 15:14:50 PM UTC

Stafford is NOT a Democrat!

She just doesn't want to be a Repuke anymore.

She didn't even show up to her HD40 Democratic monthly meeting last week.

I'm confident that she won't run for anything in '08.

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by: MileHighDaredevil @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 16:02:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She didn't even show up to her HD40 Democratic monthly meeting last week

  Did the H.D. 40 Dems even tell her the time, place and date of the meeting?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 03:31:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think this promise will be kept

This promise will be too difficult for him to undo. Tom Wiens et al. would absolutely go nuts.

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by: Tancredo Watch @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 18:49:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

if they're smart, they'll start announcing TODAY......

.....and lining up commitments from GOP precinct people, office holders, etc. before Tank changes his mind.

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by: One Queer Dude @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 19:05:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ritter won this district

I believe that Ritter won CD-6 last cycle.
As an open seat, this is a better Dem pick-up opportunity than incumbent held CD4.

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by: TakeBackTheHouse @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 15:17:30 PM UTC

then maybe the Dems need to run Ritter in C.D. 6

Are any of his kids over 25, and look/sound like Dad?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 15:28:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It will be interesting to see

I live on the edge of CD-6 (safely over the line in CD-1) and spend a lot of time there and it's interesting to see how it's changing. Definitely more Dems and liberals live there, and just down the street from Tommy T's district office is a lively Hispanic enclave. It wasn't long ago that you could count the number of minorities living there by hand. (Yes, I know they're not a safe Democratic vote, but Tommy's like isn't exactly appealing to the nonwhite crowd.) In short, CD-6 is undergoing the same shift that affected Jeffco.

That said, I think CD-6 is still pretty solidly conservative and the GOP nominee, whoever it is, will come out on top by a comfortable margin. Maybe not by the margins Tank enjoyed or the one that Lamborn had (remember how excited we all were in that race), but I don't think it will be a truly competitive margin either. But we'll see.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

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by: Aristotle @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 15:48:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Really??

Does Tauer even live in the District?  Not that it matters.  As for a Democrat, no chance, no way, won't happen, don't waste your money.  Whatever part of this district you're looking at is just a small sliver.  Remember Centennial, remember South Jeffco and especially remember Douglas County.  The only part of Aurora in the District is the far southern part.  Most of it is in Perlmutter's District.  If Jesus himself ran in this district as a Democrat, he wouldn't win.  This is why I haven't become a Democrat.  They are too stupid politically for their own good.  This pipe dream that they could win this seat has been going on for decades.  They've run their best.  Remember Martha Ezzard?  Got 40%.  Remember Joan FitzGerald?  Got 40%.  Remember Joanna Conti?  Raised over a million bucks and what?  Got 40%  Winter did worse in a very Democratic year.  I'm in favor of the 50 state strategy, but, really.  I told Joanna and I will tell any Democrat.  Run, but run for the right reasons.  Don't have any notion that you are going to win.  Run to party build, to rub the "uncomforatble Republicans" nose in what a disaster their party has become.  If you run to win, you won't do anything except spend a lot of useless time, get your friends and volunteers hopes up and not spread your message.  Any Democratic candidate in this District needs to be an absolute bomb-thrower and not worried about losing, because s/he ain't going to win.  Speaking from hard experience here and as a resident of the District.

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by: Craig @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 16:26:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

agreed on all counts

No, CD-6's burbs aren't where CD-7's are, but I think it's going that way. Well, not totally - the new GOP strongholds are the exurbs which mostly are growing in CD-4 (and thus will help Musgrave keep her seat) but are also found in abundance in CD-6. (Not to mention Greenwood Village, which has no equivalent in CD-7.)

You're right, I'm mostly looking at Littleton, but I lived in Centennial for a few months with my in-laws and still visit there a lot, and I work in Highlands Ranch, and shop in South Jeffco and downtown Littleton. Littleton's the only place where the demographic changes are apparent, but it wasn't long ago that all the suburbs were conservative WASP enclaves.

My prediction is that more and more traditionally Democratic and/or liberal people will move to these suburbs like they already have into CD-7 and the district will become a place where a Dem might actually go to Congress. But it's years behind the CD-7 burbs, if not a decade or more.

I hope the Dems do as you suggest.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

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by: Aristotle @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 16:42:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Henry Strauss was something of mild-mannered bomb thrower when he ran in '98

  He I.D.'d what Tancredo was and called Tank's supporters to task for being racists, didn't spend much money, and got about 43% of the vote......better than JFG, Ken Toltz and Joanne Conti.
  Sometimes less is more.

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by: One Queer Dude @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 16:44:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does Tauer even live in the District?

Are one or more members of the Tauer family thinking of running for that seat?  If so, which one(s)?

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by: One Queer Dude @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 16:45:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have actually considered it

I have from time to time thought about running for congress in a district that I didn't have any chance of winning, just for the reasons you mentioned. I offered to run in CD4 in 2004 for the entertainment value of having a gay man run against MM.

My biggest fear is that some fluke would happen and I would actually win and then have to live and work in DC (ick!!!!).

Retirement in action does not equal retirement of beliefs.

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by: Dan Willis @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 16:48:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Worries.

If you think you can win then you shouldn't run, because you can't win and you'll only ruin yourself and spend lots of money others could spend better.  But really, run for the reasons I stated above.  There are damn few people who have the balls to do that and hopefully you are one.

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by: Craig @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 19:14:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dem chances in CD-6

More purple every cycle...B. Winter received 40% of vote with almost 0% name recognition.

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by: boulder18 @ Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 00:22:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Unserious?

Glad to see you changed "unserious" to "unseasoned," with respect to Bill Winter in '06. Unserious was an ill-considered choice of words, and did not reflect all the hard work and long hours Bill and all of his volunteers and staff put in on that campaign.

Bill has said he is not running again, but I for one would like to see him reconsider if Three Term Tommy really isn't going to run.

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by: nbcouch @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 15:23:27 PM UTC

Bill Winter is a good man, a smart man and a moral man

I don't know him well, but I like what I've seen.  I wish he would run again.  He likes his job though so I don't see it happening.  I think he felt a little burned by the party that they didn't help him out a little or at least warn him he was just a sacrificial lamb.

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by: Danny the Red (hair) @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 16:26:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sadly

CD6 has been so safe an R seat (nothing but Rs elected to congress from the time CD6 was created) there is little chance that the Dem party would target (pour a lot of money into) this CD any time soon. Winter really wasn't "burned" any more than any other candidate running for a seat  considered very safe for the other party and his campaign was mess.  Both targeting and a candidate in the mold of HD38's Joe Rice (and yes, both Ritter and Salazar won here, too) in addition to an open seat and a great campaign would be required for a Dem win.  That's a lot of requirements, probably a few too many for 2008.

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by: BlueCat @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 19:22:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Goodbye, Mr. Tancredo

Tom Tancredo will cease being my representative in January 2009, and perhaps my district will finally, after ten years of being represented by an ineffective political outcast, obtain representation by a sober, mature and effective Congressman or Congresswoman.

Tancredo's replacement will almost surely be a Republican. This is a heavily Republican district. Tancredo's replacement may even share his views on many issues, including illegal immigration. But it is to be hoped that Tancredo's replacement will exhibit the highest personal ethics, including keeping any and all solemn, oft-repeated campaign promises.

Tancredo's presidential campaign will likely fizzle out in the next several weeks or months, perhaps even before the Iowa and New Hampshire votes. (The Teamtancredo.org website has a new, rather "going out of business sale" look to it.) Tancredo will definitely depart from Congress with a very hefty pension.

I promised that if and when Tom Tancredo kept his promise not to seek re-election, I would stop blogging about him. Despite what those extremists who drove up my block with a huge Confederate flag may have thought, my main beef with Tom Tancredo wasn't his stance on illegal immigration. Respectable, honest people like Duncan Hunter and others have taken similar views as Tancredo's on that issue: in fact, Tancredo has been largely co-opted by other Republican presidential candidates on the subject - to the likely detriment of the party in 2008 and beyond.

No, my major quarrels with Tancredo were in two areas: first, his unnecessarily vindictive, shrill, bullying, nativist and most of all profoundly naive approach to the issue of illegal immigration, which caused the man to be embraced by extremist, racist fringe groups regardless of how much Tancredo insisted he was not a racist. Tancredo had an incredible knack for using terminology that tended to depersonalize and even demonize American citizens and well-wishers alike who happened to be of different colors or faiths than most Americans, and in particular good, hard-working people whose only crime has been to try to obtain a better life for their loved ones through amazing personal sacrifices.

Is illegal immigration wrong? Yes, it is: and better border enforcement is a key element of a responsible solution to the problem. Claiming, as Tancredo did, that illegal immigrants were coming across the border to kill you and me, and that Miami was a "third world country," and similar stunts were amazingly short-sighted and mean-spirited exercises in rank hyperbole. Tancredo actually harmed his cause more than he helped it, when all is said and done.

But the main problem I had with Tancredo, and the reason I started my blog at http://tancredowatch... as well as the companion http://www.tomtancre... site that I will also no longer be updating after today, was his lack of personal ethics and integrity in making a solemn term-limits vow, not once but on numerous occasions, and after having served as Colorado's main spokesperson for the cause of term limits, and then breaking that vow when he found it politically expedient to do so. In a gesture of class, Tancredo in his press release announcing his decision not to seek another term in Congress acknowledges if not quite apologizes for admittedly breaking his promise on term limits.

I have said before that I think Tom Tancredo is a funny individual, and would no doubt be a lot of fun at any social gathering. He is also intelligent and articulate. Here's wishing him and his family well in his future endeavors now that he has belatedly kept his promise to his constituents.

Finally, thanks to the many people who have posted comments on the blog, whether they were for or against Tancredo. Thank God that we live in a democracy that allows citizens to speak their minds! The blog has almost assuredly had zero influence on people's thoughts about Tancredo, let alone on Tancredo himself, but it's important for citizens to keep their representatives accountable any way they can.

Here's to integrity and truth in government! With best wishes to all, this is TancredoWatch signing off. I'll be coming up with a new ColoradoPols moniker now. 

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by: Tancredo Watch @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 18:47:59 PM UTC

Will you be known?

Will you inform us as to your future self?  Will you become known as "The Blogger Formerly Known As Tancredo Watch" (TBFKATW - quite the monicker...)?  Regardless, here's to one less thing that needs watching.

"We're below sharks and contract killers." -- Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), speaking on Congress's 9% approval rating

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by: Phoenix Rising @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 18:59:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

how about

"Not Watching Tancredo Anymore?" Or NWTA for short. That works for me...

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

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by: Aristotle @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 21:15:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More Colorado GOP money for infighting

and less for fighting Democrats in Colorado seems a likely short term consequence.  This could, for example, help Udall's Senate run, and close races like the open state house race in Colorado Springs.  If there is a primary in CD-5 as well, money suck could be quite severe.

This is also the best shot the Dems are ever going to get in the near future to grab this seat, as it is open in a year when the Republican political wave ebbing for the moment.

Of course, medium to long term, the GOP may benefit from having someone more effective than Tancredo in this seat.

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by: ohwilleke @ Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 23:49:38 PM UTC