May 29, 2012 05:55 PM UTC

Keating/PNA Poll: Obama 48%, Romney 44% in Colorado

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• by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Will somebody let Dick Wadhams know that Politico is now referring to Colorado as “The Boulder State?” Wadhams should have a unique appreciation for this nickname change.

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Politico’s Maggie Haberman this morning:

As Mitt Romney heads to battleground Colorado this week, the Democratic-leaning firm Project New America is out with a poll showing President Obama with a slight edge in the Boulder State, [?–Pols] leading 48 percent to 44 percent.

The survey of 601 likely voters taken over three days last week also give Obama a big lead among registered unaffiliated voters, 57 percent to 30 percent for Romney.

From Project New America’s poll memo:

“A 27-point margin for the President among Unaffiliated voters is surprising,” said Jill Hanauer, President of Project New America. “Colorado elections are won among Unaffiliated voters, mostly in the suburbs of Denver. Mitt Romney has a steep hill to climb with this group.”

Obama also holds a commanding lead among the state’s fastest-growing demographic, Hispanic voters, among whom he leads 67-24.  Jason Leon, PNA’s Director of National Outreach, said, “Colorado Hispanics have been hit hard by the recession, but these numbers suggest that Mitt Romney’s economic message is not resonating. We’ve seen a significant movement from “undecided” towards Obama in the past year.”

The “gender gap” that fueled Senator Michael Bennet to a narrow victory in 2010 is relevant today, with Obama leading 51-40 among women.

Pollster Chris Keating said, “These numbers show it will be difficult for Romney to win Colorado, especially if Obama continues to appeal to women.”

The unaffiliated and Hispanic spreads, as well as the persistent “Ken Buck gap” in women’s support for the abortion hard-line Republican candidate, are key bellwethers to watch and are indeed looking good for President Barack Obama if this poll is accurate. Politico is right to note, though, that Obama’s overall margin over Mitt Romney is right at the poll’s margin of error.

So needless to say, nobody gets to relax–most likely not until the second week of November.