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New Polling Shows Bennet, Norton Ahead, GOP Gov. Tossup

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 11:19:12 AM MDT


New polling out this morning from Public Policy Polling has some interesting numbers across the board in the three top-ticket Primaries in Colorado:

U.S. Senate (Democrats)
Michael Bennet: 49%
Andrew Romanoff: 43%
Undecided: 9%

U.S. Senate (Republicans)
Jane Norton: 45%
Ken Buck: 43%
Undecided: 12%

Governor (Republicans)
Scott McInnis: 41%
Dan Maes: 40%
Undecided: 19%

It looks like all of these races are going to come down to the turnout numbers, with higher turnout favoring Bennet, Norton and McInnis (because these three have the highest name ID in their respective races). The Secretary of State's office will release the latest turnout figures after 3:00 p.m. today, so check back here for that update.
Colorado Pols :: New Polling Shows Bennet, Norton Ahead, GOP Gov. Tossup
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New Polling Shows Bennet, Norton Ahead, GOP Gov. Tossup | 110 comments
As predicted
And seniors at a 3rd.  Interesting.

Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too
The "likely to vote" question
was a self-identification.

I don't think that number is out of line at all.  Seniors vote.  Especially in a mail-ballot election.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
Everyone knows
Seniors vote in a higher percentage in off-year elections, which means these percentages seems right.

Worth pointing out that in cross tabs, Bennet wins three of four age groups.

This is a shallow argument Stryker.

[ Parent ]
you're welcome to whatever opinion you like
if you're so sure, might I recommend going and cracking a cold one now and just waiting for the returns tomorrow.

Regardless, my diary yesterday was accurate in its predictions.

Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too

[ Parent ]
By what standard was your diary accurate?


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
several ways
1) the poll came out today.  That wasn't exactly known prior.

2) it showed Bennet up by 6 (I said probably 5, just outside the 4.3 margin).

3) it shows a heavy weighting on seniors, but uses vague language to justify (might be as high as a 3rd)

I am curious to read through it more about their geographic weighting if that's available.

Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too

[ Parent ]
additionally, no weighting is given
I read through everything available on PPP's site -- they offer absolutely no information on weighting of any sort.

Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too
[ Parent ]
Just back from lunch with some insiders
Much to my shock they reported out that Romanoff will go down to Bennet, they have access to various committee polling, certain relationships and a history of many election cycles.

I threw the kitchen sink at them as to why Romanoff would win. They explained their read, which I understood. Maybe I'm giving way to much weight to the yard signs, ARs field prowess and GOTV efforts.

In the end these mail-in ballots have changed their game. They said the only way AR wins is if the polls are maniputlated somehow.

[ Parent ]
LOL
OK, that made me laugh. Be sure to give us your stock picks while you're at it. And if you loved us, you would include their picks for Superbowl and World Series too.
[ Parent ]
The real question not being asked
if this race is basically within the margin of error, why did Obama decide not to come to campaign this weekend or today for Bennet
as reported he would?

Bill Clinton is making calls to voters today  for Andrew Romanoff - which was expected -
but Obama is nowhere to be found.
Why?
The Bennet Campaign must have wanted and requested Obama to be doing everything possible to help him win.

Could it be that the White House is distancing itself from a possible loss as they did in Pennsylvania with Specter, days before the primary?

Or worse, could the White House be distancing itself from the potential fallout from the recently announced bi-partisan audit called for to investigate Michael Bennet's bank swap with DPS?

one or both reasons look to be the case.

[ Parent ]
Obvious answer, Wade
But you can't remove your shill hat long enough to see it.

It's too late to move a significant number of voters.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
Wait a darned minute, Wade
Who reported that Obama would be coming out this weekend? Because this whole weekend was taken up with birthday activities, which were widely reported.

I'm serious, Wade; you're basically making crap up. Post a link to a reputable news source saying Obama would be coming out here (and you or any other diary doesn't count).

Ad astra, per aspera // keep calm & carry on

[ Parent ]
What Raf said
Nobody ever reported that Obama was going to come to Colorado. In fact, we'd never even heard rumors about it.
[ Parent ]
He DID do a telephone town hall
Perhaps Wade wasn't invited?

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo...

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
it was circulating


Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too
[ Parent ]
Where?
Seriously -- and we're not saying this with any snark -- where was this rumor about Obama coming to Colorado circulating? It most definitely was not published/reported by anyone as news, or even as rumor.
[ Parent ]
Again, by who?
People just circulating random stories is not the same as fact. When I was stationed in Iraq, all kinds of stories circled around - didn't mean they were true, and 99% of the time, they weren't.

I realize that you & Wade are trying to paint a narrative, which is fair. What isn't fair is making crap up, and then defending it by saying, "well, it was circulating".  

Ad astra, per aspera // keep calm & carry on

[ Parent ]
Which is worse - the fog of war, or the fog of campaigns in the final 36 hours?


"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
That's why honk-and-waves were invented


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
You know, I've always wondered if......
they make a damned bit of difference.

Would love to see some data on THAT!

(jeez if you love honkus.)

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
They get the candidate out of headquarters
And give the staff something to curse about.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
and something for volunteers to do
every campaign has those people who come in saying "I'll do anything you need...except phone calls, canvassing, data entry, or fundraising"


Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too
[ Parent ]
You mean the ones who show up for the first time
At the victory party?

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
Reason enuf to keep doin' them then!


"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
lol. sl

[ Parent ]
Heard it from KKZN's Los Angeles Liar ...
... Mario Solis-Marich was stroking the rumor last week.  No creedence coming from a talentless, hack talker based in L.A. but to Wade's defense, it was on air for the couple of hundred Mario fans (true Prog sadists) that listen to the L.A. liar.    
[ Parent ]
Well, I like Mario
So I wouldn't call him a hack, or a liar.

That said, thanks.

Ad astra, per aspera // keep calm & carry on

[ Parent ]
A winner!
Correct answer: Mario planted the rumor at the behest of Romanoff's campaign so they could talk trash when it didn't happen. They are pulling out every dirty trick in the book, this is no surprise.

Raf, your faith in Mario is misplaced. He has gone 100% hack since this primary heated up.

[ Parent ]
Obama is polling below 40% in Colorado
He's an anchor to a non swimmer. It will be interesting to see how much/where Obama stumps this fall.

For example, what would be the voter impact of a highly covered Sept/Oct media event with The President, Hickenlooper, Bennet, Markey, Polis et. al?

I think The President's capital account is to low to benefit your toss-up and lean races. Hell, it could even backfire.

[ Parent ]
This is a dem primary Libby
So Obama has a great deal of stroke.

You might be right about the fall.  We'll see.

Remember, Al Gore's refusal to use the Big Dog when he was perceived to be an albatross around the neck was what cost him the election.  There will be places this fall where Obama can stump and do some good.  Maybe here, maybe not.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
But you are kind of cute Libby
trying to pretend that McInnis isn't a huge albatross on state Republican hopes to be seen as fielding qualified candidates.
[ Parent ]
The GOP's biggest problem is Maes/MInnis
there's no doubt there
[ Parent ]
Acrtually, Libby
Their biggest problem is having shitty candidates across the board.

You can try to narrow that to the Gubernatorial race, as you have done.

But it's much worse than that.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
They have outstanding candidates
Just as the Dems do for the most part. Why are you so bitter?
[ Parent ]
LOL@bitter


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
Don't you get a little dizzy, wade?
from all that spinning?  And if Bill Clinton really is calling today, which I doubt highly, why were you guys so dumb as to wait until the last possible day to mail in ballots?  
  Just as a possibility, maybe the poll is accurate?  Maybe your lack of a GOTV effort, which I addressed before, means you will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?
  Or maybe we all just wait about 32 hours and stop spinning and start counting?
[ Parent ]
Clinton did a robo-call
He's not making personal calls  
[ Parent ]
I suspect any personal calls that The former President makes
involve very little dialing and numbers north of $500k.

No one has ever explained this whole Clinton-Romanoff thing - why did The former counter The President?

[ Parent ]
Because Andrew supported Hillary
The Big Dog is just returning a favor.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
IMO, Clinton owed him
Goes back to Romanoff's DLC days. Not a real rift in the party, just Clinton patting his old friend on the back.
[ Parent ]
Kinda like a Lewinski that doesn't 'go bad' on you

[ Parent ]
But the numbers aren't valid
because the shill doesn't like them!
[ Parent ]
All the races are close
I expect the people in the lead now will win but it may be well into the night before we know for sure who is winning.

I do think that Romanoff is a bit closer than that but the late push by Bennet may have gotten him up to that number.

Scott still wins and Norton will win because Buck has destroyed himself this last 2 weeks by talking.  If he had just been quiet he would have won.

The only good news for Romanoff
Is the 9 percent undecided.  In races involving an incumbent, undecideds tend to break late in favor of the challenger.

How many are left and how much they break are the questions.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
I couldn't tell...
was this only D likely voters. I've been phone banking and knocking on doors a lot recently and getting quite a few Us who were going to switch to vote Romanoff in the primary. Are thes3 accounted for here?
[ Parent ]
I have the same question
Since I'm a "U" who switched to vote, and answered "Other" on the party affiliation question.

I'm going to phone up the contact listed in the PDF.  I'll post what I find out.


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
cool!
Thanks Ralphie. I'll keep an eye out for your post.
[ Parent ]
Not answering his extension, I'll try back in about an hour.


Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
OK JPS
I've called five times.

Tried all the extensions.

I left a message.

But I'll keep trying, because I want to know.  I also want to know how many self-identified as "other."

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
Giving up now
They don't want to talk to lowly bloggers.

I left another voicemail message after work.

Called again first thing this AM.

Screw them.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
I suspect a chunk of the undecideds just didn't want to say I probably won't bother

[ Parent ]
Actually, he made the "dumbass" comment
a long time ago, but the Dems held onto it to create the perception that he was making a bunch of gaffes all at once.

"...energy shouldn't be in the market." - Aristotle
[ Parent ]
True
But the intended effect has hurt him too much too close to the election I think.
[ Parent ]
He also had to walk back his Tancredo comments
and make up for a moment of rationality.
[ Parent ]
I just think you are wrong.
This is a mail ballot. Most of the ballots have already been counted and will be reported shortly after 7 pm.  I predict this will all be over by 8 pm.  Further, these later polls are totally worthless.  2/3's of the vote has already been cast.  9% undecided?  Those are non-voters now.  They have to deliver their ballots to the few drop locations that exist.  Can't even mail them.
[ Parent ]
Bingo!
I am so looking forward to a good analysis of voting behavior after this primary.
[ Parent ]
Agree
and some analysis on the damage to Bennet caused by AR's truthful field campaign would be interesting too.

I'd say the same about Buck, but I think he can only win with a late and coordinated surge.

Did Palin ever back or signal backing in the US Senate race?

[ Parent ]
The problem with mail-in ballots, is who knows when the outcome can be influenced?
I believe that Romanoff was trying to get his vote in early...god knows I got enough calls telling me to mail the ballot in...which I had already done....

The negative media on the Romanoff ads may well have hurt Romanoff last weekend when more people may have not yet voted....where as the NYT article and all the subsequent discussion I think hurt Bennet....but most people who were going to vote had already voted...

 For politics, geezers are golden.
by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 19:19:14 PM MDT

[ Parent ]
You can buy lists of who voted and when they voted
Then you put together a curve, and set your media strategy accordingly.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
That is true, if you can control the media and the stories.
The NYT story broke on last Friday, and I think that the Romaoff campaign had been doing GOTV for a week.  I do not believe that the Romanoff campaign or any campaign can control the timing of independent media stories, such as the  NYT story....if romanoff could have , it would have broken two weeks before or instead of his infamous ads...and
an earlier story and the ensuing discussion might well have clinched the race for AR.  Now...I don't know.

I think that the reemergence of the Bennet girls was probably based on internal polling and focus groups and reflected the strategy you suggest.

 For politics, geezers are golden.
by: BlueCat @ Tue Aug 16, 2011 at 19:19:14 PM MDT

[ Parent ]
You can't control the media
And they get pissed off if you try.

You have to have your own communication strategy and stay on message, no matter who tries to put you off.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
At this stage
This late in the race it makes most sense to look at which way polls are trending, especially in races that are within the MOE/undecided span.

AKA, bad news for Bennet.  

I disagree (slightly) Aggie
Bennet's favorables are well over 50 percent.  As an incumbent, that's where you want to be.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
Trending doesn't quite say as much
With only one day left, if Bennet is indeed up 6 trends won't make that up.  Its going to be that 9% undecided.  As Ralphie said its about how much they break.  Bennet is pretty happy with this position a day before the election.  
[ Parent ]
Huh?
Last week a Survey USA poll had Romanoff up four, while a Bennet internal poll released to the media had Bennet ahead by 4. This poll has Bennet ahead by 6. By your logic, Aggie, this would be good news for Bennet. In fact, Bennet is the only one of the three leaders in this poll that is outside the margin of error (+/- 4.6%).

But as we said above, these races are all going to come down to turnout.  

[ Parent ]
With Bennet's Favs at or above 50%
The final turnout can't influence the fact that Senator Bennet will win his first election.

It looks like Romanoff's Bennet voter education effort couldn't engage the majority to vote for against the Senator.

[ Parent ]
To be clear...
If the margin of error is 4.6, and the margin between Bennet and Romanoff is 6, that is WITHIN the margin of error.  (In other words, if you adjust Romo up 4.6, and Bennet down 4.6, Romo is ahead -- that's what a MOE means.)
[ Parent ]
good call!
I always thought it was the other way too! thanks for the little tutorial and motivation to Google it.

:)

[ Parent ]
But
It's the MOE at the 95 percent confidence level.  It's a bell-shaped curve.  Numbers are the extremes of the MOE have a very low probability of occurring.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
good spinning, but
it's just as likely that Bennet is 15.2 percent ahead.   You can play that adjustment both ways.  Also, as Ralphie noted, these numbers are at the 95 five percent confidence level.  Thus, there is only one chance in 20 that AR is 4.6 percent higher -- and another 1 in 20 that Bennet is 4.6 lower.  For both AR to be up 4.6 and Bennet down 4.6, the chance is just one in 400  -- the same 1 in 400 chance that Bennet has to be up 15.2 pct.
   
[ Parent ]
pols is right
As I predicted, I think Bennet's counterattack, based on the Denver Post editorial slamming Romanoff for politics at its most cynical, triggered a backlash of anti AR votes.  Assuming all three polls were accurate, you see Romanoff gaining 20 points in five weeks based on a strident negative campaign, then dropping about 10 points as Bennet counterattacks.
  Trend is to Bennet.  Turnout is high, which helps Bennet.  Bennet seems to have a much more effective GOTV (my wife was contacted 6 times by Bennet , zippo by AR.)
  We'll know soon enough, but right now, the Romanoff campaign seems headed straight down Mike Miles Boulevard.  
[ Parent ]
Come on CPols...
can you honestly say that the polls aren't trending in Romanoff's direction?  While this survey shows a little push-back from the previous Survey USA poll, the trend is clearly in Romanoff's favor.  

And FWIW, this comment really isnt some sort of spin, just some commentary.  

[ Parent ]
Really
That might have been true if everyone was voting tomorrow, but the reality is that 2/3' of voters have already voted.  These late polls mean nothing and the undecided's are people who aren't going to vote for the most part.
[ Parent ]
The mail-ins will be 75% of votes cast
The next questions are:

Will the DSCC deliver Bennet the chips he needs to compete or has AR done LT damage?

What AR going to do follow Middleton to a mystery job in Cali?

[ Parent ]
So many variables that it seems like the race is a toss-up ...
1. How does the mail-in vote factor here? How many people haven't voted? Of those who have voted already, who is in the lead (MB or AR)?

2. On undecided voters ... given that people have had ballots for a couple of weeks, it seems to me that undecided voters are probably just not going to vote at all, so I don't see them breaking one way or the other. But I am obviously just guessing.

3. Name recognition right at the end. This also seems like a toss-up in that I don't think either candidate can claim name recognition as a strength.

This poll doesn't seem to really hurt either candidate, so I am kind of glad that it looks like it's up to GOTV to decide the primary.

Let's hope the Bennet:Romanoff #s are spot-on. As for the Gub
primary - 1 in 5 GOP primary voters still undecided?

'Wow' if true! Esp this late in the mail-in voting....

Sounds like a high level of (understandable) GOP in-house disgust. Suppose those folks will mostly not vote.  

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

I'm with you on the Dem senate race State Line
It is possible that mainstream Democrats are holding for Bennet and still support the Obama administration.  The end of combat operations in Iraq August 1st went without notice but it is another indication that we're making progress and need to stay the course.

The Republican rank and file know that their votes don't count so why bother.  McInnis has probably already printed up the lottery tickets for his spot.  Nothing like making a profit turning over the bridge of the Titanic.

[ Parent ]
31 August is the formal date for the so-called
'end of combat operations' in Iraq. But your point still stands: things in-country are better now than they were a year ago, better than 2 years ago too.

We'll likely still take some casualties between now and December 2011 when all US forces are slated to be out of Iraq - a date that may also slip, but maybe not.

Bottom line is: Obama's extricating us from W's Excellent Adventure in a methodical manner.

No easy task, given a still-high level of internal violence, and Iraq's ever-lurching politics (which makes Colorado politics look utterly paradisical in contrast).

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the correction State Line
I read where they were shipping tanks and equipment back as early as last fall.

The Iraqi politics are not good with Maliki stonewalling Allawi over a transition in governments but we can only hope at this point that they can peacefully resolve their differences.  You look at the arc of this countries fortunes and it took a big nose dive after the invasion.  Clearing away the rubble of Republican misrule has been a difficult task with enormous risks.  It is kind of like the Gulf spill where the best you can do is try to contain the damage and work on restoration.  What an unnecessary waste.

[ Parent ]
Takes forever to move that volume of materiel.
As for Iraq's post-election jockeying for power, it's not unlike what typically happens in a number of western European multiparty parliamentary polities, such as Belgium and Italy. (Or Israel, for that matter.)

In which it can take many months after an election before a new gov't is formed via a protracted coalition building process.

In Iraq's case of course, the instability consequences of such dithering are far more severe.

That said, warts and all, it's still the most nearly democratic of any Arab country.

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
McInnis has a name ID edge.
I seriously doubt that Bennet does.  This is a man that wasn't in Colorado politics in a visible way two years ago, and his service in the Senate has not been particularly flashy.

Norton probably does have a name recognition edge over Buck (with voters having real trouble recalling which Norton in Colorado politics is which).

But, the large number of undecided voters in the Republican U.S. Senate primary really shows how lukewarm support is for both candidates, and the McInnis-Maes numbers likewise indicate intense mutual disgust with both candidates.

It is already clear that turnout will be high this year (probably as much due to the predominance of mail-in ballots as the heat of the primary races themselves).  But, it isn't obvious to me that the increased turnout does much to favor one candidate or the other.

The real challenge now for the candidates is identifying supporters and getting them to vote.  This GOTV ground game matters more than absolute turnout levels.

What planet are you on?
Dude, have you been following the numbers? There ain't much vote left to get out...

Here is the votes returned as reported here last Friday:
*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned
Republicans: 269,646/ 855,667/ 32%

Compare to historic levels:
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTING HISTORY
2008: 239,212 votes case (Bob Schaffer, Senate)
2006: 193,804 votes cast (Bob Beauprez, Governor)
2004: 335,431 votes cast (Pete Coors/Bob Schaffer, U.S. Senate)

Most of the votes are already in ohwilleke. GOTV won't mean a thing in influencing tomorrow's vote. Why don't you go out and do a honk-n-wave for Scotty. It will make you feel better.

[ Parent ]
Depends on where you are...
While the vast majority of the state is all-mail ballot, there are still significant pockets where this is a traditional election.  Specifically, according to the SOS, this is NOT a mail ballot in Weld (Vote Center) and El Paso (Polling Place), as well as several smaller and mid-size counties (Summit, Pitkin, etc.).

Check out the map here: http://www.sos.state.co.us/pub...  

[ Parent ]
"Traditional Election"
Changes every year.  Each year, an increasing number of people request to be put on the "permanent mail ballot" list.  Even vote-center and polling-place counties have early voting.

There are people left to vote, to be sure, but people have enough options so the number is likely to be fairly small.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

[ Parent ]
Undervote
Yes, 32% have voted. But I think it will be fascinating to look for the possible undervote at the TOP of the Republican ticket.
[ Parent ]
Norton over Buck - fascinating!
I've kept hearing how Norton has been five to nine points behind Buck for weeks now. And this poll has her a little bit ahead? Seems odd.

Then again, PPP is light years more reliable than Rasmussen.

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

maybe people do like a candidate in heels?
or maybe it shows some oddities in the poll on a larger level?  This shows Bennet/Norton better than expected -- both the DC choice for candidate.

Well I suppose we can continue navel gazing -- but we will know tomorrow night regardless.

Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too

[ Parent ]
Year right,
Like they like a candidate without balls which is essentially what Norton said in her commercials.  The most sexist damn shit I've seen in years.  A pox on both their houses.
[ Parent ]
it was a joke
because of her TV ads...

Sorry Michael Bennet, but I'm a real person too
[ Parent ]
If Michael B. has no balls, as has been alleged - but Andrew R. wears heels,-
also alleged.....for whom would you vote?

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
That's easy
Triguardian.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno
[ Parent ]
2 points makes it more like
Norton neck and neck with Buck. Which pretty much reflects my preference as a Dem.    
[ Parent ]
closer than I expected, that';s for sure
I'm rooting for Norton, predicting Buck.
[ Parent ]
I hope Buck wins - the fringier the better for Dems in November


"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
I'm friends with Jane
and also regard her as more moderate.  But the reality is that the Congressional Rs are so in thrall to the drown gummint in a bathtub types that she'd vote with McConnell on everything important, just like Buck.  So, maybe its best to have the R who is on record stating that the birthers are dumbasses.
[ Parent ]
I don't really feel there IS such a thing as a 'moderate'
Republican anymore.

The Dems run the gamut from Ben Nelson to Anthony Weiner.  While the Rs run from Jim DeMint to Sarah Palin (to Basil Marceaux, lest we forget).

It's too bad, actually.

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
Well, there is Snowe, Collins
and Richard Lugar.  On Kagan, we also had Lindsay Graham.  But the shame is that on key stuff, even Snow and Collins followed Tea Party orders.  They have now become, to update the 20s leftist jibe,
   "A pacifist between wars and a vegetarian between meals."
   
[ Parent ]
Okay, but....
first off, I'd say Lindsay G. hardly qualifies as a 'moderate', just a (slightly)less rabid conservative than the R Senate caucus as a whole.

As for Lugar, Snowe & Collins, on how many votes this Congress have they split from McConnell & Co?

Fewer than 1% maybe? That's what it takes to qualify as a 'moderate' Republican these days?

You see FAR more Dem Senate divergence from Leader Reid's preferences than on the R side. Ditto in the House.

Think my broader point stands: Dems span a FAR broader ideological spectrum than do Rs.  

Like the quote, it's a good one.

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
Agree completely
Hell, voting for Kagan was meaningless, once the Rs agreed not to filibuster.  I shame for Snowe/Collins is that they've upheld so many shameful filibusters including, iirc, not extending unemployment benefits, etc.
  I'd rather have a flat out Jim DeMint type, who makes no bones about being a neanderthal.
[ Parent ]
Hmmmm.......something is clearly fouled up if
you and I are in agreement.  ;)

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
Lie die, take two aspirin, and in the morning
we'll be back to swapping insults...
seriously, I'm sorry I snarked you the other day.  I was just a bit warn out by fighting off the Shill Tide from JO, probably the most notorious shill on the board (now that Sharon Hanson is in semi-retirement.)    
[ Parent ]
egad, shud have said "lie down" not lie die.
We need more federal funding into brain fart research...
[ Parent ]
Snark apology accepted, no worries!


"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head."  - sxp151

[ Parent ]
GOTV
AR's campaign is damned if they do and damned if they don't.
Don't quite know what you mean, reubenesp.
The GOTV in question isn't generic.  You canvass, by foot or phone, to identify those who support you or are at least neutral.  Those who lean to or definitely support your foe, you leave strictly alone.  Then, you make sure you get your leaners and suppoorters to cast their vote.   the notion is that a higher overall turnout helps Bennet...maybe it does.  But clearly getting Romo people out to vote helps Romo and Bennet people to vote helps Bennet.  
  That's different from november efforts like Rockthe vote, etc., that just try to increase generic turnout.
  Again, I'm using a small sample -- our own household.  But we've been buzzed six times by Bennet and not at all by AR, which therefore doesnt even have the list of me and my wife down as Bennet folks that they would have if they had made the initial contact.
[ Parent ]
I rec'd 6 contacts from
MB teams vs. 1 call from AR side (Clinton robo call). Rec'd two calls from 527's supporting MB. Seems like MB has a strong GOTV effort and contacting all "undecided's".
[ Parent ]
We got 1 MB, 0 AR calls here
And we have 2 residents who are undecided and haven't voted. (They probably won't vote.)

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!
[ Parent ]
Jane Norton has no class.
Jane  had not only disgraced herself  but also has  tarnished herself as a  dirty woman. She has lied about Ken Buck's position on Illegal immigration. It is unfortunate that she has associated herself with the big RINO MAVERICK who had crafted a BIG AMNESTY BILL.

She will betray Colorado even if she gets elected. She will carry the blood of the innocent for the rest of her life. Shame on Jane and the RINO MCCain

Somehow, inchoate,
I think you will carry the hangover of too much gin and too little vermouth with you to your next militia meeting.  Don't get too close to the cross burning, I wouldn't want to see your blue hair singed.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't get to close to him either
He probably thought Deliverance was one of those How To videos.
[ Parent ]
New Polling Shows Bennet, Norton Ahead, GOP Gov. Tossup | 110 comments
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