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The Most Important Number Until the Primary: Turnout

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 15:56:07 PM MDT

FRIDAY UPDATE: Here are the turnout numbers as of 2:45 p.m. today. It looks like a lot of voters are still holding onto their ballots:

*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned
Democrats: 245,477/ 817,458/ 30%
Republicans: 269,646/ 855,667/ 32%
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Previous updates and original post after the jump

Colorado Pols :: The Most Important Number Until the Primary: Turnout

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WEDNESDAY UPDATE: The Secretary of State's office has updated the ballot return numbers. Here they are as of about 4:00 p.m. today:

*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned
Democrats: 210,201/ 817,458/ 26%
Republicans: 222,938/ 855,667/ 26%

Democrats have already voted in significantly higher numbers than in 2008 (see after the jump for more), while Republicans are almost there. There's still a lot of ballots to go for either Party to surpass the 335,431 votes cast the last time Colorado had a competitive top-ballot Primary (Pete Coors/Bob Schaffer in 2004).
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In the last couple of weeks, polls for both the Democratic and Republican Senate races, as well as the Republican Governor's race, have showed results that are all over the map. Those changing numbers lead us to believe that all three races are going to be relatively close.

With that in mind, the most important number for the next 8 days is going to be turnout. The general rule of thumb is that a higher turnout benefits the candidates with the best name ID -- Sen. Michael Bennet on the Democratic side, and Jane Norton (Senate) and Scott McInnis (Governor) on the Republican ticket -- because a larger number of voters usually means a larger number of uninformed voters, for whom name ID is really the most important issue.

As of this afternoon, here are the turnout results from the Secretary of State's office. We'll update these numbers on Wednesday afternoon and again on Friday afternoon (special thanks to the SOS Communications Staff for the timely updates):

*Party/ Ballots Returned Thus Far/ Total Active Voters/ Percent Returned
Democrats: 164,878/ 817,458/ 20%
Republicans: 171,236/ 855,667/ 20%

In 2006, overall primary turnout was 23%, while in 2008, overall primary turnout was 21.95%. It would appear as though we are well on our way to higher than normal turnout, which makes sense since we haven't seen a contested statewide primary in Colorado (at the top of the ticket) since the 2004 Republican Senate race between Pete Coors and Bob Schaffer.

To give those numbers some perspective, here are the numbers for ballots cast for the top ticket race in 2008, 2006 and 2004. Pay particular attention to the 2004 Republican Senate race, which as we said above was the last competitive top-ticket Primary in Colorado:

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTING HISTORY
2008: 194,227 votes cast (Mark Udall, Senate)
2006: 142,586 votes cast (Bill Ritter, Governor)
2004: 237,140 votes cast (Ken Salazar/Mike Miles, U.S. Senate)

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTING HISTORY
2008: 239,212 votes case (Bob Schaffer, Senate)
2006: 193,804 votes cast (Bob Beauprez, Governor)
2004: 335,431 votes cast (Pete Coors/Bob Schaffer, U.S. Senate)

Tags: scott mcinnis, dan maes, ken buck, jane norton, Michael Bennet, andrew romanoff, (All Tags)

The Most Important Number Until the Primary: Turnout | 43 comments

And some nice graphs

http://www.coloradopols.com/di...

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 22:10:07 PM UTC

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On the DEM side

I interpret this as 85+% of the votes are in.

by: davebarnes @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 22:10:29 PM UTC

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It's not that high

Mail-in voting has two peaks -- in the first week ballots drop, and in the last few days before Election Day. If we had to throw out a number, we'd say probably 30% of the votes on both sides will come in this week.

by: Colorado Pols @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 22:14:09 PM UTC

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Latest data from The City & County of Denver

PDF - http://www.denvergov.org/Porta...

51K of 206K have returned ballots.
So, this is a 25% voting rate as of today.

Either:
1. Turnout will be really high (relatively speaking)
2. This election is over.

Fascinated by the data.

by: davebarnes @ Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 02:35:28 AM UTC

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You're way underestimating

the eventual turnout.

A leader on the battlefield can be a leader in Congress. -- redstateblues

by: RedGreen @ Wed Aug 04, 2010 at 23:00:46 PM UTC

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You are correct about underestimating

Vote by mail changes everything.

Overall: higher turnout.
But, your chances of affecting the election decline day-by-day.

I am looking forward to some good analysis of this as I sure don't intend to perform that analysis.

I still say that John's appearance for Jane on Saturday is meaningless.

by: davebarnes @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 01:16:44 AM UTC

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I predict with the New York Times story

the remaining votes go 3 to 1 for Romanoff.

by: wade norris @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 01:09:48 AM UTC

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You're so wrong so often

Why would you want to stop now?

This is serious, you commie dolt --davebarnes, 2012.

by: Ralphie @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 01:10:47 AM UTC

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just like all the Bennet supporters

were wrong about his involvement in the DPS swap?

by: wade norris @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 01:25:42 AM UTC

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just like all the Bennet supporters

were wrong about his involvement in the DPS swap?

by: wade norris @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 01:25:42 AM UTC

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Saying it twice doesn't mean a thing, expecially when you're wrong both times.

Your post was about the course of the election over the last three days.

It must be really hard to be you, Wade.

This is serious, you commie dolt --davebarnes, 2012.

by: Ralphie @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 01:28:44 AM UTC

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You guys crack me up - you're so deep in the weeds....

drinkin' the Kool-Aid and all that good stuf.

good GAWD, I can't wait until Wednesday!

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head." - sxp151

by: State Line @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 01:59:20 AM UTC

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I second that!

"Well, you can do what you you want to us, but we're not going to sit here and listen to you badmouth the United States of America. Gentlemen!" Otter

by: TimothyTribbett @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 02:37:02 AM UTC

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That's a pretty specific prediction. But, exactly what percentage of late voters do you suppose

are sitting around reading the NYT on a Friday - lord knows you they won't find it in the unmentionable #1 Colorado paper. Waiting for an article there to help them make up their minds who to vote for??

No offense, but you need to get out more often, man.

Maybe have a beer with that guy whose company already made its monthly sales quota....

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head." - sxp151

by: State Line @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 02:05:53 AM UTC

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I have o disagree

The data is in quesion wih an accounting firm.

Mos people in Colorado don't read the NY Times

My phone banking has shown that most of the undecided are put off heavily by the Romjue acknowledgement that the anti pac mania has been a ruse.

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric

by: Ray Springfield @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 06:47:52 AM UTC

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What remaining votes?

Outside of El Paso County, the vast majority of the remaining ballots are already in the mail and on their way to the county clerks. There will still be a lot of ballots coming in between now and Tuesday, but almost all of them will have been filled out by Thursday or Friday.

by: Leonard Smalls @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 13:54:38 PM UTC

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The 2006/2008 numbers posted

Is that what they were at this many days in advance, or total? If total that would put this likely to be 50% over 2008 which strikes me as high.

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 22:14:40 PM UTC

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Total

But 2010 should be significantly higher, because neither 2006 nor 2008 had a Primary at the top of the ticket.

by: Colorado Pols @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 22:17:04 PM UTC

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Oh yeah - president ends at the assembly

I keep forgetting that.

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 22:37:09 PM UTC

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I wonder if that applies in a primary election vs a general election

"The general rule of thumb is that a higher turnout benefits the candidates with the best name ID -- Sen. Michael Bennet on the Democratic side, and Jane Norton (Senate) and Scott McInnis (Governor) on the Republican ticket -- because a larger number of voters usually means a larger number of uninformed voters, for whom name ID is really the most important issue."

Seems to me people wouldn't bother to vote in a party primary unless they were relatively informed and equally motivated....It's possible the ease of mail-in voting makes that marginally less so, however.

Also not sure that Bennet has a higher name ID than Romanoff at this point in time. Maybe. Any data out there to support your suppostion?

"The graveyards of the world are filled with indispensable men."
- Charles deGaulle

"It's hard to balance on a woman's head." - sxp151

by: State Line @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 22:49:13 PM UTC

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I would expect AR to have better name recognition amongst...

... regular primary voters. These people tend to be a little more party-aware than non-primary voters. AR has been party involved a lot longer than MB

MB has been working really hard to increase his name ID, and the real question will be how many non-primary voters will vote this time and who have they latched onto. I don't know and I would expect no one can really know until the votes are all counted.

Retirement in action does not equal retirement of beliefs.

by: Dan Willis @ Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 01:19:34 AM UTC

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I think that would be a wrong expectation

The majority of primary voters aren't as tuned in as you think. I know. I've been phone banking targeted lists. These are people with a primary voting record and the general picture is not one of particularly high info voters who have given this much thought until very recently.

A sitting Senator who has been mentioned throughout the various media over time has higher name rec. Then the TV ads,the mother of all name rec and negatives, kick in. Most primary voters have never paid much, if any, attention to the state legislature. Don't confuse the universe of caucus goers with the universe of primary voters.

by: BlueCat @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 16:04:28 PM UTC

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Latest (03AUG2010) Denver turnout results

(Warning: PDF)
http://www.denvergov.org/Porta...

Tick, tick.

I am really interested (being the nerd that I am) to see this chart at the end. It is going to tell us a lot about mail-in elections.

by: davebarnes @ Wed Aug 04, 2010 at 02:44:57 AM UTC

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The more uninformed voters, the better Michael does!

I know it's true, but lmao.

by: stadt @ Wed Aug 04, 2010 at 22:59:02 PM UTC

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Way to go, Stadt

I'm sure that insulting people is going to work really well to get your candidate elected.

I have been involved in election campaigns for 22 years. Never once have I found it necessary to insult people to get them to vote my way. As a matter of fact, I don't think that insulting people works for anything other than driving off voters.

Whatever Romanoff is paying you, you should probably try to get Bennet to pay you 2x more instead. That's how effective you are at driving votes the other way.

I have now gotten through three paragraphs without a personal insult. That's over the limit for me, so let me tell you that you are an asshole.

Want my vote? Don't insult me.

This is serious, you commie dolt --davebarnes, 2012.

by: Ralphie @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 00:47:07 AM UTC

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Putz.

A leader on the battlefield can be a leader in Congress. -- redstateblues

by: RedGreen @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 00:51:57 AM UTC

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Putz or not

Insulting me is not the way to get what you want.

Neither is calling me a putz, but I don't really care about that.

This is serious, you commie dolt --davebarnes, 2012.

by: Ralphie @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 00:55:22 AM UTC

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I think RG was joking, Ralphie.

by: Voyageur @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 00:36:22 AM UTC

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I hope so

Because Yiddish insults are the worst of all.

This is serious, you commie dolt --davebarnes, 2012.

by: Ralphie @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 00:38:09 AM UTC

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Seriously?

Come on, now, it's pretty much a given that everyone commenting on this site is considered an "informed voter" and definitely not stupid. I'm just saying it's funny that Bennet is depending on uninformed voters :) On one hand it could be that informed voters are more likely party activists and therefore more likely to be loyal to Andrew. On the other hand it could be that, in the AGGREGATE, the more the average voter knows about more candidates, the more likely they are to vote Andrew. It's probably the former.

So loosen up. And I'm not trying to get your vote. At this late stage of the game. On this site. And I'm certainly not paid. (Wish I were!)

by: stadt @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 01:51:22 AM UTC

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The more I know about Andrew

The less likely I am to vote for him.

You're probably best off to rely on uninformed voters. Informed voters know that Andrew's campaign is a campaign of lies.

This is serious, you commie dolt --davebarnes, 2012.

by: Ralphie @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 02:04:41 AM UTC

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FINE.

All I was saying is the article made me laugh when it said that. Not trying to personally offend anyone.

by: stadt @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 02:07:22 AM UTC

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This is true

,

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric

by: Ray Springfield @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 06:50:55 AM UTC

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So that's why you keep insulting me...

...you want me to vote for Romanoff :)

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 03:02:53 AM UTC

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I haven't insulted you

I just don't understand your thought process.

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric

by: Ray Springfield @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 06:51:59 AM UTC

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not on thread but way cool, Chris Cilizza at the WashPost has a poll on Wadhams

http://blog.washingtonpost.com...

by: Interlocken Loop @ Wed Aug 04, 2010 at 23:31:32 PM UTC

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I want Wadhams to stay here

He's the best thing we Dems have going for us.

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 03:04:45 AM UTC

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The difference between R's and D's is small

Despite Republicans having several statewide primaries to the Democrats' one, they don't have a huge advantage on returns, and it's narrowing--as it usually does...Republicans tend to a larger early return surge before the return rates even out.

Hopefully that pokes a few hole in the media narrative about the all-powerful tea party causing voter excitement on the right to be sky high while it's dead on the left.

A campaigner type on Maddow tonight spoke to what I think is closer to reality--the teabaggers are revved up, and nobody else is. The far right of the far right is excited, but the rest of the far right, right, center-right, and the rest of us are similarly low energy, something that is quite common in non-presidential years.

Non impediti ratione cogitationis.

BTW, I "adduced" this all by myself, you total fucking assclown.
-Laughing Boy

by: ThillyWabbit @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 07:48:31 AM UTC

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I think it's also hard for us on the left

Because we're fighting hard to return a Congress that does a mediocre job. Hard to get jazzed up over that even though Repubs would be worse.

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by: DavidThi808 @ Thu Aug 05, 2010 at 14:55:34 PM UTC

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Curious about El Paso County...

Anyone out there with a guess of how El Paso will come in? Since they're not all-mail.

by: It's Me @ Fri Aug 06, 2010 at 21:13:32 PM UTC

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Why no last-minute polls?

Whazzup with that? I would expect some juicy Rasmussen polls showing the Tanc leading the Hick, Maes way ahead of McInnis, Obama the lowest-rated president in history: you know, the usual totally reliable Rasmussen poll results.

"Why not do the right thing for the American people, even though it's not exactly what we want." - Speaker Boehner

by: Half Glass Full @ Sat Aug 07, 2010 at 05:33:45 AM UTC

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I am not see the surge here people

Warning: PDF
http://www.denvergov.org/Porta...

by: davebarnes @ Sun Aug 08, 2010 at 02:14:30 AM UTC

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Questions for people smarter than me

With this being an all mail in ballot primary, how has that affected the election?

Looking at the data, voters turn in ballots at the beginning and near the end of the mail in cycle. How does this affect 1) the candidates/campaigns, 2) the reporting, 3)the GOTV?

Since there have been moves in the last years to move Colorado to an all mail in voting state, I'm curious how this primary and this election will influence those conversations in the future.

by: Car 31 @ Mon Aug 09, 2010 at 21:45:46 PM UTC

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The Most Important Number Until the Primary: Turnout | 43 comments