Survey USA Poll: Hick Beats McInnis, Maes with or without Tanc

Wadhams

will get on the phone after the primary and find high paying, no work jobs for Tancredo and the GOP winner and get them to bow out and get the GOP to appoint a new nominee. Owens redux? Coffman? Chlouber? Loser of Buck/Norton? Suthers? Ali? Heather Lemon?

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by: Gray in Mountains @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 13:44:31 PM UTC

What universe are you living in????

n/t

If you're not upset, you haven't been paying attention.  Mike Littwin

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by: Ellie @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:11:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

quote

Wadhams
will get on the phone after the primary and find high paying, no work jobs...

If you're not upset, you haven't been paying attention.  Mike Littwin

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by: Ellie @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:13:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Hasan foundation? n/t

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by: Poindexter @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:26:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks Tancredo

now the big question is - will Norton or Buck drop out of the Senate race to run for the Governor's race?
I believe Norton will try to deal with Tancredo to drop out with the provision that she'll get McInnis and Maes to quit.

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by: wade norris @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:44:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Right, Tancredo...

... could be offered the Chairmanship of a new "Colorado Commission on Illegal Immigration" created by the Atty General (the sole Republican officeholder the party could hit up to create such a commission, however unofficial). That's what I'd do if I were the R party now. You're welcome for the free advice, D-Wad.

AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."

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by: raymond1 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 15:02:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which of the above

would not be a stronger candidate? Only Heather and Ali.

You don't think those high pay/no work jobs are available to any of those 3? Now that is possible, that none of the usual suspects would want them on their letterhead.

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by: Gray in the mountains @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:58:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Someone suggested

putting "unnamed Republican" on the Governor Line, and I agree: That candidate would have a better chance that any of the three stooges currently lined up against Hick. Worst case scenario for Dems is that McInnis wins the primary, agrees to step aside (in exchange for a cushy job), and the 'Pubs pick a strong candidate to replace him. Hick still has the advantage, but that scenario could leave the 'Pubs better off than they would have been in the absence of McInnis's meltdown.

We're all in this story together: Let's make sure that we write it well.
http://www.steveharveyforcolor...

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by: Steve Harvey @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 13:54:56 PM UTC

Dream on...

It was suggested by someone (David I think) yesterday that primaries make you tough for a general election.  It that's the case and after all the attacks Scott still wins the primary, then I don't think your golden boy Hick is going to get off quite as easy as you hope.

If you're not upset, you haven't been paying attention.  Mike Littwin

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by: Ellie @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:15:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree Ellie that McInnis has to beat Maes first

In a direct match up with Hick, according to this poll, McInnis does better than Maes.  With the Tanc in, however, that changes substantially.  

I also think that if McInnis gets the nod, many of the Maes voters will seriously consider a vote for Tanc.

Is the(in this poll) 5-point spread between Hick/McInnis (with Looney Tunes Tancredo NOT in the race) impossible for Scooter to make up? No, but I think you overstate the case in saying that the attacks have been fierce against McInnis--it's nothing yet, one 527/c4 ad, some bad press (including from his hometown paper) and editorializing that he should drop out, and the Denver Past, and other papers across the state...

But if McInnis gets the nod, then you'll see the real attacks.  My prediction: McInnis is toast.

But time will tell.

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

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by: ClubTwitty @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:34:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why respond?

When your sig line says what you think of my opinion.

If you're not upset, you haven't been paying attention.  Mike Littwin

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by: Ellie @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:36:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually its someone else's quote

And it nowhere implies that all who support Scooter have 'half a brain' only that McInnis appeals to those who do.  If you want to take a sig line personally (I thought the quote was hilarious, myself) then feel free.  

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

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by: ClubTwitty @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:38:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You would (think it's hillarious)

and I think you might be surprised how often we agree on an issue if you weren't such a "Twit" about those that support a different candidate.

Is it personal?  Of course it is if you take your politics seriously.

If you're not upset, you haven't been paying attention.  Mike Littwin

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by: Ellie @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:45:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I take my politics seriously

But I don't take offense at people's silly sig lines.  

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

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by: ClubTwitty @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:49:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ellie

I am baffled as to why you suppport McInnis after what he did.  I just don't get it - how can you support a person like that ?

"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead". - Thomas Paine

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by: Fidel's dirt nap @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:52:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Stockholm Syndrome?

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 17:34:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why wouldn't we respond

to your Pollyanna portrayal of Colorado's own Blagojevich.

McInnis is another retread Republican from the Tom Delay era along with Beauprez and Schaffer.

The fact that Tancredo offers an alternative to McInnis for Maes supporters can't be discounted particularly when people see McInnis as an untrustworthy liar.

You can heap sarcasm on Hickenlooper but he looks a hell of a lot more trustworthy than "Get the old guy to cop a plea" McInnis.

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:42:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree w/ Ellie:

Hick leading McInnis by 5 in a head-to-head shows (a) McInnis's bleeding has a limit, and (b) Hick is in for a close one if Tanc's support tanks.

AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."

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by: raymond1 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 15:04:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

McInnis

will keep sinking.

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by: wade norris @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 15:06:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I dunno, the plagiarism coverage...

... has been pretty intense, will only decrease; if he wins the primary, the story could be "he survived" like Bill Clinton '92 after the Gennifer flowers scandal. But I hope you're right!

AraraGOP said Romney will win the nomination and "I don't see how he can survive the next year of withering attacks."

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by: raymond1 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:49:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You assume that Hickenlooper will remain on the sidelines

and not spend any money campaigning.

What happens if Hickenlooper has say a million dollars and decides to spend a bunch of it in the coming months?  The fact that he is up without any visible campaigning says that he has a big upside when he turns on the commercials.

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 17:38:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And, as I recall

those commercials are already paid for

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by: Gray in the mountains @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 17:43:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And he looks darn cute riding a moped

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 18:56:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree with Raymond/Ellie

5 points is an easy margin to make up especially since nothing has come out on Hick.  It will in the General and that will make 5 points easy to make up.

People will get tired of the plagiarism, maybe not on Pols but the average person who is not politically savvy will tire of it and move on.

Tanc is the one problem, with him in the race it is over for the Republicans because of the votes he will take away.  If his support falls off though it could still be doable for a Republican candidate but still tough.

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by: TCU2011 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 19:57:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I suspect the oppo teams have more good stuff on Scooter too

Should he survive a take down by the underfunded grafter, my guess is there is more to come...

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

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by: ClubTwitty @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 20:03:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think so

I think that at this point in the race it would have already come out.  Dems knew from the start that McInnis was the only candidate that could beat Hickenlooper so why take the chance of letting his stay around.  I think we have seen what they have of McInnis and with the polls out it seems that he has stopped the bleeding so to speak.

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by: TCU2011 @ Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 05:03:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK...

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'  

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by: ClubTwitty @ Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 12:55:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

just in from pravda

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_1...

whom ever republicans put up...
it becomes
Governor Hickenlooper.

"Fake but accurate!" ~GOPwarrior "infrastructure,whatever that is." ~bjwilson83 "You leftist DICK!" ~ Laughing Boy
See you at the polls you dumb bastard.~Libertad  

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by: Froward69 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 15:37:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Scott is a plagiarist and a fraud

and you would do well to drop him as a friend.

"Thank you for putting your rank political motives on display." - ArapaGOP

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by: Aristotle @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:34:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That act

"putting "unnamed Republican" on the Governor Line"

is akin to the way the Republican Caucus likes to do legislation.


"The modern conservative is engaged in one of mans' oldest exercises in moral philosophy, that is the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."    John Kenneth Galbraith

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by: dukeco1 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:27:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Would Norton

be strong for Guv - since she was a Lt. Guv?

if she is truly down by 10 compared to Buck - maybe she will switch.

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by: wade norris @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:56:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She can't switch at this point

The primary ballots are set. But if she loses to Buck and McInnis wins his primary and then steps down (which he is denying will happen), she'd be a good substitute candidate for the reason you said.

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by: RedGreen @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 18:48:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Norton would be an awful candidate

But as a Dem I'm all in favor of her being the replacement.

Jane Norton would be awful for the same reason she lost her primary, she's viewed as a tool of the top Republicans and lobbyists in D.C. And that's toxic this year in an election.

I know most of the politically active people like here personally and that speaks well of her as a human being. But it doesn't translate into votes.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

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by: DavidThi808 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 23:06:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fat Lady Singing at McInnis' camp?

For someone fighting for political survival, McInnis' campaign has been surprisingly low-key during this Republican primary. One would think Scooter would use this time to rebuild his image, but his TV ad buys and campaign mailers are not in scale with the seriousness of his lagging poll numbers.

Either McDrill's campaign is over-confident of his success in the primary; or, they never planned for a contentious primary until it too late to gear up the campaign for the fight. Or...they have written the race off.

No doubt, his campaign never planned for this plagiarism scandal. If this small "skeleton in the closet" caused such a large uproar, imagine what the bigger bones -- still waiting to be exhumed -- will do to Scooter's gubernatorial campaign. (Something caused him to drop out of the US Senate race two years ago.)

If McInnis loses the primary, in a way, he still retains some viability as a king-maker in the Republican Party because of his war chest and association with oil-and-gas fueled PACs and 527s. That was his role in the 2008 elections, both in local and state races, and it may be all he's useful for in the future.

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by: WestSloper @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 14:16:04 PM UTC

I agree with your comment that there may very well be "bigger bones -- still to be exhumed"

For example, we haven't heard the last word yet about his donation of elk meat to a poor family. Mr. McInnis said he took an elk a few years ago, had the meat cured, and donated it to a poor family. This raises a few quesitons:

1. Who cured the meat for him;
2. Who did he donate the meat to; and
3. Most importantly, do the records at the Division of Wildlife show he had an elk license and did he tag an elk?

If he didn't have a license then he is a poacher and if he did, then it will show whether he actually took an elk. This may be a relatively unimportant matter but Mr. McInnis has shown a proclivity to say things to enhance his image that later turn out not to be true.

Also, he needs to turn over copies of his income taxes to establish his claim he has donated a lot of money to charity. I'm betting when we finally see his returns he has donated virtually nothing to charity.

It is time for Mr. McInnis to come clean.

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by: Republican 36 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:50:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My fear

The three way race between Hick, Tanc, and McMaes shows what we all expect, 50-25-25 respectively. Some time late in the game, maybe early October, Tanc drops out and throws all of his support and money behind McMaes, unifying the party again and creating an upset situation. Hick may have to split his money to fend off both candidates. A late game-changer like Tanc dropping out could be the best strategy the Pubs have now.

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by: jW @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:17:30 PM UTC

You assume the undecided will break for Republicans

and that Tancredo will defer to never run for elected office ever Maes, the guy who lives down by the river in his van eating government cheese.

If Tancredo drops out then he alienates his Tea Party supporters and if he does that then he might have to go get a real job instead of banking all that money so he can perpetually run for office.  He didn't do much except run for office as a Congressman so why would he change his stripes now?  Tanks in it for the money and it sets him up for his next campaign.  No way Tancredo drops out.

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by: Gilpin Guy @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:50:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope you're right

But Tanc has said repeatedly that he will drop out if and when the primary winner drops out. This tells me that he's not serious and he is just making a point. I'm worried that he just put himself in a very powerful king-maker position.

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by: jW @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 17:46:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oh, Jeez, I just had a scary thought...

 Gov.Tancredo/ Lt. Gov. Penry?

Eeeewwww. Creepy.

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of mans' oldest exercises in moral philosophy, that is the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."    John Kenneth Galbraith

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by: dukeco1 @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 18:09:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's called

"Life Insurance"

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same.  Which one will it be?  --Joseph V. Paterno

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by: Ralphie @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 18:24:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does Tancredo have a day job?

History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme.  (Mark Twain)

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by: PERA hopeful @ Tue Aug 03, 2010 at 16:11:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Plurality??

With all the fiscal problems the State will be facing the next 3 fiscal years, the last thing we need is a Governor elected by a plurality.

We need the perception of strength and leadership and notwithstanding Hickenlooper's skills and personal ability, a plurality win will make him look weak.

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by: abraham @ Mon Aug 02, 2010 at 16:44:56 PM UTC