Survey USA Poll: Hick Beats McInnis, Maes with or without Tanc

RealClearPolitics.com is reporting from the Survey USA poll:

SurveyUSA conducted the poll for 9News/Denver Post  and found Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper leading Republicans Scott McInnis by 5 points and Dan Maes by 9 points when Tancredo was not included. With Tancredo inserted to make it a three-way race, Hickenlooper takes 44% to 26% for Tancredo and 25% for McInnis; against Maes, Hickenlooper leads with 46%, with Maes and Tancredo taking 24% apiece.

In the Gubernatorial race (or Gubinatorial for Tancrediacs) voters get to choose between a successful businessman and popular mayor, an egotistical xenophobe, or from one of two flavors of cheaters.

Hick–according to the poll–skates to victory even if the Tanc hits a trap or busts a tread along the way.

Meanwhile, Maes has pulled ahead of McInnis in the Primary (within the MOE), according to The State Column:

Of the 588 likely and actual Republican primary voters surveyed in the poll, 43 percent said they plan on supporting Dan Maes, while only 39 percent say they favor of Mr. McInnis.

Surprisingly, 18 percent say they remain undecided. Colorado’s primary election is now less than two weeks away.

In June, a similar poll showed Mr. McInnis with a thumping Mr. Maes with a 57 to 29 percentage lead.

As I have noted before, even in a ‘Republican year’ Democrats have the fortune of running against actual people, not ‘generic’ Republicans.  And as I have also noted, the Tea Party fervor might well peak in just over a week–as GOP voters send Dan on to the General and certain defeat.  

 

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  1. Gray in Mountains says:

    will get on the phone after the primary and find high paying, no work jobs for Tancredo and the GOP winner and get them to bow out and get the GOP to appoint a new nominee. Owens redux? Coffman? Chlouber? Loser of Buck/Norton? Suthers? Ali? Heather Lemon?

  2. Steve Harvey says:

    putting “unnamed Republican” on the Governor Line, and I agree: That candidate would have a better chance that any of the three stooges currently lined up against Hick. Worst case scenario for Dems is that McInnis wins the primary, agrees to step aside (in exchange for a cushy job), and the ‘Pubs pick a strong candidate to replace him. Hick still has the advantage, but that scenario could leave the ‘Pubs better off than they would have been in the absence of McInnis’s meltdown.

    • Ellie says:

      It was suggested by someone (David I think) yesterday that primaries make you tough for a general election.  It that’s the case and after all the attacks Scott still wins the primary, then I don’t think your golden boy Hick is going to get off quite as easy as you hope.

      • ClubTwitty says:

        In a direct match up with Hick, according to this poll, McInnis does better than Maes.  With the Tanc in, however, that changes substantially.  

        I also think that if McInnis gets the nod, many of the Maes voters will seriously consider a vote for Tanc.

        Is the(in this poll) 5-point spread between Hick/McInnis (with Looney Tunes Tancredo NOT in the race) impossible for Scooter to make up? No, but I think you overstate the case in saying that the attacks have been fierce against McInnis–it’s nothing yet, one 527/c4 ad, some bad press (including from his hometown paper) and editorializing that he should drop out, and the Denver Past, and other papers across the state…

        But if McInnis gets the nod, then you’ll see the real attacks.  My prediction: McInnis is toast.

        But time will tell.

      • raymond1 says:

        Hick leading McInnis by 5 in a head-to-head shows (a) McInnis’s bleeding has a limit, and (b) Hick is in for a close one if Tanc’s support tanks.

      • Froward69 says:

        http://www.denverpost.com/ci_1

        whom ever republicans put up…

        it becomes

        Governor Hickenlooper.

      • AristotleAristotle says:

        and you would do well to drop him as a friend.

    • Duke Coxdukeco1 says:

      “putting “unnamed Republican” on the Governor Line”

      is akin to the way the Republican Caucus likes to do legislation.

    • wade norris says:

      be strong for Guv – since she was a Lt. Guv?

      if she is truly down by 10 compared to Buck – maybe she will switch.

      • RedGreenRedGreen says:

        The primary ballots are set. But if she loses to Buck and McInnis wins his primary and then steps down (which he is denying will happen), she’d be a good substitute candidate for the reason you said.

        • DavidThi808DavidThi808 says:

          But as a Dem I’m all in favor of her being the replacement.

          Jane Norton would be awful for the same reason she lost her primary, she’s viewed as a tool of the top Republicans and lobbyists in D.C. And that’s toxic this year in an election.

          I know most of the politically active people like here personally and that speaks well of her as a human being. But it doesn’t translate into votes.

  3. WestSloper says:

    For someone fighting for political survival, McInnis’ campaign has been surprisingly low-key during this Republican primary. One would think Scooter would use this time to rebuild his image, but his TV ad buys and campaign mailers are not in scale with the seriousness of his lagging poll numbers.

    Either McDrill’s campaign is over-confident of his success in the primary; or, they never planned for a contentious primary until it too late to gear up the campaign for the fight. Or…they have written the race off.

    No doubt, his campaign never planned for this plagiarism scandal. If this small “skeleton in the closet” caused such a large uproar, imagine what the bigger bones — still waiting to be exhumed — will do to Scooter’s gubernatorial campaign. (Something caused him to drop out of the US Senate race two years ago.)

    If McInnis loses the primary, in a way, he still retains some viability as a king-maker in the Republican Party because of his war chest and association with oil-and-gas fueled PACs and 527s. That was his role in the 2008 elections, both in local and state races, and it may be all he’s useful for in the future.

    • Republican 36 says:

      For example, we haven’t heard the last word yet about his donation of elk meat to a poor family. Mr. McInnis said he took an elk a few years ago, had the meat cured, and donated it to a poor family. This raises a few quesitons:

      1. Who cured the meat for him;

      2. Who did he donate the meat to; and

      3. Most importantly, do the records at the Division of Wildlife show he had an elk license and did he tag an elk?

      If he didn’t have a license then he is a poacher and if he did, then it will show whether he actually took an elk. This may be a relatively unimportant matter but Mr. McInnis has shown a proclivity to say things to enhance his image that later turn out not to be true.

      Also, he needs to turn over copies of his income taxes to establish his claim he has donated a lot of money to charity. I’m betting when we finally see his returns he has donated virtually nothing to charity.

      It is time for Mr. McInnis to come clean.

  4. jW says:

    The three way race between Hick, Tanc, and McMaes shows what we all expect, 50-25-25 respectively. Some time late in the game, maybe early October, Tanc drops out and throws all of his support and money behind McMaes, unifying the party again and creating an upset situation. Hick may have to split his money to fend off both candidates. A late game-changer like Tanc dropping out could be the best strategy the Pubs have now.

  5. abraham says:

    With all the fiscal problems the State will be facing the next 3 fiscal years, the last thing we need is a Governor elected by a plurality.

    We need the perception of strength and leadership and notwithstanding Hickenlooper’s skills and personal ability, a plurality win will make him look weak.

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