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Spend It If You've Got It

by: Colorado Pols

Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 12:01:53 PM MDT

According to "Hotline" (subscription required), Sen. Michael Bennet had one of the hottest burn rates in the country in Q1:

Spent Most In 1stQ
McMahon ($4.82M), McCAIN ($3.06M), LINCOLN ($2.00M), Rubio ($1.83M), Fiorina ($1.66M), Lowden ($1.58M), Binnie ($1.54M), BENNET ($1.31M) [Pols emphasis], REID ($1.03M), Toomey ($1.03M)

Ordinarily we'd tell a cautionary tale about spending so much money so early in a race, but like anything else involving fundraising, a burn rate is all relative compared to what's happening with your opponents.

Bennet spent more money in Q1 than anyone else in the race (except for Jane Norton) has raised in total. That's the luxury you have when you put in the time and effort required for raising money. Bennet still has about $3 million more in his warchest than anyone else; hell, you could add up the cash on hand amounts of the other four candidates combined and still not come close to what Bennet has in the bank.

Bennet's burn rate is so high in large part because he's already gone up on TV with three different commercials, so he's not exactly pulling a Scott Gessler and pissing it all away (although Bennet's commercials haven't exactly been genius-level, either).

Bennet's fundraising has afforded his campaign the luxury of being on TV when the rest of the field has to be saving every dollar for July, and that is part of a point we have been making here for months: It's not necessary for the other candidates to raise more money than Bennet in order to beat him, but they still need to stay in the general vicinity. And that hasn't happened just yet.

Colorado Pols :: Spend It If You've Got It

Tags: ken buck, jane norton, tom wiens, andrew romanoff, Michael Bennet, (All Tags)

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Spend It If You've Got It | 36 comments

Good thing...

...he spent it on those totally awesome and effective TV commercials.

Keep 'em coming, Michael - they ROCK!

by: Laughing Boy @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:04:19 PM UTC

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Jane Norton's were pretty effective

Considering that awesome caucus night performance.

by: redstateblues @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:07:42 PM UTC

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Caucus Shmawcus. n/t

by: Laughing Boy @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:08:33 PM UTC

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per Rasmussen poll

which the Bennet camp normally doesn't like, they are working.

If Rasmussen is within 4, then the race is probably a dead heat in more centrist or liberal polls.

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric

by: Ray Springfield @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:54:17 PM UTC

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As you oght to know LB

The purpose of TV is to build name recognition. Knocking on doors as a volunteer for various campaigns, I soon realized how common it was for people to have no idea who their reps and senators were, even among those who had voted in the past several elections, much less the names of those who were running in the election at hand. The reason there is such a strong correlation between spending and success in high office elections is because of the cost of TV and the fact that lots of TV means your name will at least ring a bell come election time.

Bennet's ads may be dull but so far haven't featured any out of state peaks, the wrong end of a horse in close proximity to the candidates face or anything that has made headlines for being blatantly false or offensive. Therefore, they are helping to get the job done and there can be plenty more, including some that might have a bit more pizzazz, because of Bennet's fundraising prowess. I'd put a hold on the happy dancing if I were you.

by: BlueCat @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:35:51 PM UTC

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I have to admit the BWB horse's rear ad

has got to be one of the best most enjoyable self-inflicted wounds in recent electoral memory. Its so sad that it cannot be found on You Tube...

"There are a lot of reasons not to elect me." Mitt Romney in a moment of clarity

"I'm Mitt Romney and yes, Wolf, that's also my first name," Willard Mitt Romney demonstrating 'policy flexibility.'

by: ClubTwitty @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 00:35:54 AM UTC

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But I managed to grab a screenshot

Too bad it's a still...

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 00:41:20 AM UTC

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How much of it is new spending?

In all of 2009, Bennet spent a total of $1.3 million, and still had an ending COH of $3.2 million.

http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureS...

So, if he raised $1.4 million, but spent $1.3, that still puts him at over what he had in COH ending 2009.

Ergo, NBD.

by: redstateblues @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:26:11 PM UTC

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Spending not just for the primary...

but also for the general. Bennet needs to generate higher level name i.d. and I suspect his current commercials have a two-fold purpose. That'd be shoring things up as much as possible for the caucuses and the state assembly (where I'd be surprised if Romanoff doesn't get top line), but also raising name i.d. for the long haul. So the "burn rate" is not just for the primary and local events leading up to it if you accept that view.

"No snowflake in an avalance ever feels responsible." Voltaire

by: Outrider @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:42:32 PM UTC

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Well put, Outrider

Bennet has never attacked Romanoff in his ads or done anything that will hurt in November. Thus, his ads not only help him in the primary, they build toward November. If you have the cash, that's the way to spend it.

by: Voyageur @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 19:01:53 PM UTC

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None of Bennet's ads

Have really appeared to be targeted at primary election voters. They have all been more general, "get to know you" type of ads.

by: Colorado Pols @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 19:18:34 PM UTC

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how much was really TV?

I know it seems easy to say that Bennet is spending all this on TV, but his ads didn't start running until after caucus. That might be a few hundred thousand he spent before April 1st on TV, but that would be about a million that he spent otherwise. A million dollars to lose the caucus?

I remember some Bennet supporters on here saying there was no way he spent over a million q1, and now this comes out showing he actually spent quite a bit more.

In other words, Bennet spent almost every penny he raised in Q1.

by: Reality Czech @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:52:36 PM UTC

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tell your boss to release his 1st quarter numbers

.

judge elected officials by their actions, not by their rhetoric

by: Ray Springfield @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 18:55:25 PM UTC

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given that my boss isn't running for office

that might not be very interesting. You got a rebuttal to something I said, you post a counter argument. Your attacks don't do the candidate you support justice.

by: Reality Czech @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 19:13:34 PM UTC

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I believe to be precise,

since you have a habit of disingenuously restating comments, that I said I don't believe he spent $1 million of caucus. And I still don't. He's got the bigger picture in mind and that's getting to a wider audience before August.

"I wouldn't characterize caloric intake as "professional development." c rork

by: Middle of the Road @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 19:16:39 PM UTC

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When the $ was spent is different than when the ad appeared

For example, Bennet's first ad began running the day after the caucus on March 17. But the money to produce the ad and to purchase the air time had to come first. In other words, the check for that ad was written weeks beforehand, most likely.

It's also highly probable that they did the production for all three ads at about the same time, so the upfront costs there happened well before they first showed up on TV.

And as we said in other comment, none of Bennet's ads seem to be targeted toward primary voters -- they have all been more general messaging. Now, we didn't think the ads were all that great, but the target is clearly the average voter, not the activist.

by: Colorado Pols @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 19:23:32 PM UTC

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agreed on first point

In fact I said that. He probably spent a few hundred thousand on his first TV buy. That still leaves roughly 1 million dollars he spent elsewhere. Just how expensive are their fundraising consultants? And better yet, how effective are they?

The point still remains that Bennet spent almost everything he raised, and he spent a lot of it going after a caucus win (direct mail, staff, paid phones, robocalls, etc) and lost it. That's not a good investment.

by: Reality Czech @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 20:08:24 PM UTC

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Who says...

...He was going after a caucus win?

They always conceded Romanoff had the party activists, but they were shooting for a respectable showing and the 30% needed to make the ballot.

Mission accomplished

A woman's health decisions are a private matter between her priest and her husband.

by: DaftPunk @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 21:57:27 PM UTC

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Do I detect the odor of sour grapes? N/T

by: Voyageur @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 21:57:38 PM UTC

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Oh for pity's sake!

The Bennet campaign knew he was not going to "win" caucus. They worked for a strong second and they certainly got it. They increased candidate recognition, made it clear they were in the race for the final in Nov. and finished better than any Romanoff supporter thought they would. I doubt they regret the "investment."

"These are the values inspiring those brave workers in Poland ... They remind us that where free unions and collective bargaining are forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

by: Rainidog @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 23:03:59 PM UTC

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When the FEC posts the quarterly reports

We'll all be able to see where the money went. That's the fun part.

by: redstateblues @ Mon Apr 19, 2010 at 22:44:18 PM UTC

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And until the FEC does

We all get to wonder what the fuck Romanoff is hiding.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 00:33:56 AM UTC

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Yes

Well, I was under the impression we'd be hearing about them before the FEC publishes them. Is it "next week" yet?

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 00:42:37 AM UTC

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No date certain

Until then, we get to gossip.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 00:45:16 AM UTC

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Not to mention

Speculate and insinuate!

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 00:52:04 AM UTC

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That too

n/t

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 00:56:31 AM UTC

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Like others on this site..

...except that I don't have the political experience from which to expound, I'm starting to think that AR is setting up a big announcement of a big $$ quarter! I'm not sure where the game of expectations lies at this point....

by: Earnest @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 01:00:42 AM UTC

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That's some fine speculatin'

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 01:02:00 AM UTC

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Thank you.

I'm still working on my speculatin' in the mirror. It's not quite where I want it yet, but I thought I'd give it a whirl!

by: Earnest @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 01:12:37 AM UTC

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When speculatin',

always remember to smile and watch your posture.

"The modern conservative is engaged in one of mans' oldest exercises in moral philosophy, that is the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." John Kenneth Galbraith

by: dukeco1 @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 02:03:50 AM UTC

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After seeing ....

..AR's actual numbers, I think I need to re-double my practicing.

by: Earnest @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 12:28:48 PM UTC

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No, no!

You see, it's like the Heisenberg uncertainty principle--the mere speculation on the numbers changed them! They were spectacular, but when we started our insinuations and speculations, they dropped significantly.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 16:36:15 PM UTC

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Oh my land!

I didn't know my speculations had such powers. I speculate that I will be more careful next time.

by: Earnest @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 23:10:46 PM UTC

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In the absence of real information, we're all entitled to speculate

That's certainly a possibility.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 01:02:04 AM UTC

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As a novice speculator...

....I find that real information gets in the way.

:-)

by: Earnest @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 01:13:41 AM UTC

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Does it make sense?

It wouldn't make any sense to hold off on reporting a great quarter of fundraising, but you can speculate. Others have talked about AR's pooly run campaign.

by: bud @ Tue Apr 20, 2010 at 02:22:53 AM UTC

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Spend It If You've Got It | 36 comments