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Big Numbers for Wiens, Not for Buck

by: Colorado Pols

Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 11:36:36 AM MST

As The Denver Post reports today, Colorado's candidates for U.S. Senate will report vastly different results from the Q4 fundraising period:

U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet raised more than $1.1 million last quarter, nearly 3 1/2 times more than his Democratic opponent, Andrew Romanoff.
On the Republican side for the U.S. Senate seat, Jane Norton collected more than $550,000.
The campaign for Tom Wiens, the newest Republican candidate for the Senate, said it raised more than $725,000 but declined to give any details or say how much of the money came from the candidate...
...On the Republican side, Norton's donations last quarter were nearly 14 times more than those of Ken Buck, whose campaign netted about $40,000, according to federal filings...
...Wiens' campaign did not elaborate on the $725,000 besides saying it had about $550,000 on hand. Detailed contribution records for the period are not yet available.
"Those are the only two figures I have," said campaign spokesman John Ransom.
Walt Klein, adviser to Buck's campaign, said the low totals were the result of the splash Norton made when she entered the race last fall.
"It was a disappointment but not one that was unexpected," Klein said. The campaign has more than $276,000 on hand.

Wiens has said before that he is prepared to put $500k into his own campaign, so it will be interesting to see how much of the $725,000 his campaign is reporting having raised came from the candidate himself. But whether Wiens dipped into his own bank account, raised the money or had it delivered by a magical fairy, $725,000 is still a lot of money. This result pretty much can't help but put a few dents in Jane Norton's 'aura of inevitability.'

The biggest news from Q4 on the Republican side is the anemic $40,000 raised by Buck, whose spokesman termed it "a disappointment." We wouldn't call it a disappointment so much as a "disaster," since most of Colorado's congressional candidates pulled in much more than that in Q4.

While Buck does have the support of outside groups, we hear that Republicans who are supportive of Buck as a candidate are now starting to encourage him to run in CD-4. If Buck can only net $40,000 in a quarter, then he's not ready to be a candidate for U.S. Senate, although he has shown the chops to be a strong candidate for another office.

Given the fact that Republican Cory Gardner continues to make stupid mistakes and has been weak to this point in his campaign against Democrat Betsy Markey, it's no surprise that many Republicans view Buck as a better choice for that seat anyway. Buck has a natural base in Greeley, which is a major population center in the district, and his relatively weak fundraising would be less of an issue in a congressional race than a Senate primary with two big money opponents. Democrats would probably prefer that Buck stay in the Senate primary and make Wiens and Jane Norton spend every last penny that they raise, but we can't disagree that it would make sense for a lot of reasons for Buck to switch gears.

Colorado Pols :: Big Numbers for Wiens, Not for Buck

Tags: andrew romanoff, Michael Bennet, jane norton, ken buck, tom wiens, (All Tags)

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Big Numbers for Wiens, Not for Buck | 34 comments

Buck is toast unless

the campaign figures out right now that acknowledging your opponent sucked all the air out of your campaign is not the kind of explanation that makes it look like you can remain viable.

OTOH, he could now renounce donations since money is bad and corrupting.

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?" sufimarie Feb 2010

by: BICora @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 18:49:31 PM UTC

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butter & jam, please.

by: MADCO @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 21:19:43 PM UTC

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My take on this

If not for those outside groups I'd say Buck is definitely toast. With those outside groups, I still don't see a way forward for Buck.

But if the outside groups continue to pour money in, then maybe. John McCain brought his campaign back from the dead. But the odds suck.

On Tom Weins, keep in mind that Jared raised over 1 mil in addition to his self funding. The dollars raised from outside of donations is the key metric. If Weins is not telling - that's a pretty good indicator.

With that said, I think Weins has a glass jaw so I don't see him being a serious contender.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:01:35 PM UTC

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I think Weins has a glass jaw

Based on what?

by: RedGreen @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:05:41 PM UTC

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Had an interview set up

They wanted to do it and we were good to go for a week. Then the day before I asked here for questions and a couple of nasty suggestions were posted.

A couple of hours after that, less than 12 hours before the interview, he suddenly couldn't make the interview because of "travel plans." And since then, no reply to further requests.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 20:51:30 PM UTC

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so, based on nothing

I'm not as sweet as I used to be.

by: Jambalaya @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 23:52:43 PM UTC

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Wiens hasn't talked to anybody

since he announced. I wouldn't take it personal, Dave.

by: RedGreen @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 23:57:17 PM UTC

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If he'd brushed me off from the beginning

I would agree. But he wanted the interview, it was set, and it was hours after the questions were suggested and the day before the interview. And it was a very generic excuse.

It could have been something else, but Occam's Razor points to this.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 00:51:35 AM UTC

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Just a suggestion here, and I might be wrong

But maybe you aren't quite as important as you think you are.

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 01:40:29 AM UTC

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Shhhh!

It's a secret.

I'm not as sweet as I used to be.

by: Jambalaya @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 02:00:48 AM UTC

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I don't think it's that an interview with me is important

I base it on the timing of how it played out. And how it went from we really want to do this to who are you.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 02:45:11 AM UTC

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Glass jaw

Could he be coached past that?
If he has cash, he could hire advisors and staff. But that only helps if he will follow thier guidance.

"Why do Republicans get to be stupid and win while whenever we're stupid, we're just stupid?" sufimarie Feb 2010

by: BICora @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:06:18 PM UTC

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Glass Jaw, Really?

You have met Weins right????

by: Aggie @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:41:39 PM UTC

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You'd Have to Spell it Right, First

It's "Wiens". :)

ITLDUSO
Honk hello when you see my license plate!

by: caroman @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 20:08:43 PM UTC

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Campaign for Liberty

Campaign for Liberty has done a cable ad buy for Buck. Very weak ads that are hard to decipher.

If Buck runs for Congress he will win.

If he stays in the Senate race he might win the primary as Jane Norton is a pathetic candidate. With primary turnout generally under 20% in contested GOP races anything can happen.

by: Born To Run @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:04:13 PM UTC

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cable ad buy for Buck

You must not watch local broadcast. Those ads have been on all the time on Denver channels, at least. $350,000 buys a lot of spots.

by: RedGreen @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:06:53 PM UTC

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I stand corrected

A pretty amateurish ad for such a large buy

by: Born To Run @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:51:40 PM UTC

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Gardener is sweating Buck getting into this race

Gardner can raise cash, but he has no natural base among the 90% of voters NOT on the eastern plains. Buck's base of support is in the most critical county to CD-4: Weld. Also, Buck has been railing against the so-called anointed candidates. The NRSC's pick is Norton. The NRCC's pick is Gardner. He has an opportunity to harness the Tea Party energy and turn more republicans against the establishment in Washington. I think Buck would destroy Markey in Weld county, which would easily win him the seat.

by: zia205 @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:09:06 PM UTC

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Agree

Ken Buck could turn the Tea Party crowd against "Washington's Sweethearts" and beat Betsy Markey badly in Weld County.

by: rennes @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:15:22 PM UTC

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Tom Wiens carries some serious baggage

Tom Wiens is personally wealthy but has two bankruptcies and a lot of lawsuits in his past.
If he wins the nomination Bennet or Romanoff will just dust off the ads attacking Angie Paccione in 2006 for her personal financial troubles.

by: Born To Run @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:06:17 PM UTC

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Maybe

But $750,000 is still $750,000. Right now it's all about who can be the most competitive in the primary. Grassroots Republican activists are desperate for someone other than Norton to vote for.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 20:06:00 PM UTC

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Correction

$725,000.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 20:06:22 PM UTC

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Depends on how much of it is his own money

n/t

Today, you're either going to get better or you're going to get worse, but you're never going to be the same. Which one will it be? --Joseph V. Paterno

by: Ralphie @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 20:49:23 PM UTC

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Does it?

Jared Polis would beg to differ. I know it's not the same but, in the scheme of things, how much different is a dollar raised from a supporter than a dollar thrown in by a candidate?

I'm oversimplifying of course, and I'm sure Wiens wishes he could raise that kind of money from people rather than from his bank account, but if he can buy the air time, and gather some name rec... who knows.

I still think Tea Partiers and GOP activists are so desperate for a non-Norton candidate that they will throw their support behind whoever looks like they have the best shot at beating her. If Wiens has the cash, then maybe he doesn't need the money to be coming form anyone other than him.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 20:55:53 PM UTC

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Jared rasied over 1 mil

If you look at candidates who are self funded (not additional, but primarily) - they almost always lose.

Where all the cool kids will be on Saturday - Code War!

by: DavidThi808 @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 21:07:09 PM UTC

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I realize that

But he still contributed $6 million of his own money.

by: redstateblues @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 21:14:15 PM UTC

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So, it is 2 bankruptcies

I had been unable to remember. One of them was when he was running an insurance company. I can't recall the other.

Then there was the difficulty he had with the vets nonprofit.

Do you know if he ever repaid any of those creditors that he owed once he got well financially?

by: Gray in Mountains @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 20:54:45 PM UTC

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Poor Buck;

The guy should bow out while there's still time to do so in a partially-graceful manner. At this point, running a severely lethargic campaign only hurts Republicans in the Fall by splitting funds. It is indeed time for him to switch gears.

Wiens would be the best thing to ever happen to Bennet and the Dems; he's rife with baggage, whether it be bankruptcies, legal issues, or mismanaging (to put it lightly) charities. All of it is fodder for some touchy campaign ads. Being ambiguous about how much of your fundraising came from outside your pockets doesn't help either.
Because of Bennet's fundraising prowess, the longer the CO GOP waits to coalesce, the more time Bennet has to unify his primary situation.

by: SheepskinStrutt @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 19:53:10 PM UTC

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Wouldn't vote for Wiens...

I've worked for Wiens and I've witnessed his handling of his own company finances and how he treats people...I'll pass on him, thank you.

by: concernedjaneco @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 21:22:10 PM UTC

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Buck and Wiens are good for Dems

Bennet would love for Wiens to win this primary. His campaign would be a disaster and it is already showing. The electorate is already suspicous of politicians, and the fact that Wiens has not disclosed the source of the money he raised doesn't help either.

by: scobb99 @ Tue Feb 02, 2010 at 21:36:35 PM UTC

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Wiens kicked in $540K

of the $728K reported for Q4 fundraising, in what his campaign is calling a "candidate-provided loan."

by: RedGreen @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 07:01:47 AM UTC

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toast money.

He can self fund- but that doesn't generally lead to victory.

by: MADCO @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 21:20:43 PM UTC

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Jared Polis blah blah blah

blah blah blah Polis blah blah didn't matter blah blah studies show blah blah blah. Blah blah blah blah.

Since David's off writing code or something, I thought someone needed to make that point.

by: RedGreen @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 22:03:48 PM UTC

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Time will tell.

I would like to see the details on fundraising. Did Wiens just commit suicide by throwing out a number that seems quite suspicious? Buck's similar grassroots campaign reports much smaller results. If I were a betting man I would say some people are really digging into Wiens figures right now. I would prefer to be in Buck's position with his truthful paltry numbers than the alternative. Norton's fund raising was impressive, but it is expected since she is the RNC choice. The problem with all that RNC money is it does not reflect Colorado's choice. This is turning into a great race.

by: colawman @ Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 13:46:51 PM UTC

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Big Numbers for Wiens, Not for Buck | 34 comments