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I’m late getting to this, but I’ve been hearing conservatives trying to make themselves feel better about their election collapse by saying they successfully cut the gender gap in Colorado.

I’m thinking they might have scanned every word in The Denver Post, searching for something good, and found this sentence in a Nov. 6 article:

Although many polls nationally predicted a significant gender gap, Colorado exit polls showed women and men split equally.

Later, Democratic consultant Craig Hughes tweeted:

Craig Hughes@CraigHughesinCO

Dear Media: The Colorado exit polls are simply not accurate. Trust them at your own risk. Thank you. #copolitics

I asked Hughes to amplify, and he sent me these thoughts in an email.

First, we know the exits originally said that Colorado was tied at 48% for each candidate – when final results are tallied, Obama will carry Colorado by over 5%, so that’s a significant miss.  Second, the exits show that Obama’s Colorado margin was bigger among men (+5%) than women (+3%) which runs contrary to every single public and private poll conducted over the past two years.  In reality, Obama almost certainly carried women with a double digit margin.  Third, the exits list “NA” for voters aged 18-29, even though they make up 20% of the electorate, a larger portion than voters 65+.  Given those sample sizes, how is it they are unable to show results for voters aged 18-29?

Fourth, there are also exit poll results published by Latino Decisions that show Obama received 87% of the Latino vote, while the networks survey shows 75%.  I’d say 75% seems about right, but that’s a pretty big discrepancy.

If people want a look at what the electorate likely was, I’d suggest looking at the poll by Keating Research conducted just prior to the election that showed Obama +4%.  His numbers are more reliable to me than anything I have seen out of the exit polls in this, or previous, cycles (again, ask President Kerry about exit poll reliability).

So if you happen to be one of those Republicans who was feeling good because of those 18 encouraging words in the Denver Post, about women liking you more than before, I’m sorry I had to be the one, with the help of Hughes, to set the record straight.

( – promoted by Colorado Pols) Denver Post reporters like to think of themselves as evidence-based folk. That’s what sets professional journalists apart from the rest of us, right? So if you’re a clever headline writer at The Post, why would you put the following headline atop a story comparing a new Post Poll showing […]

With Wednesday’s debate on economic policy at the University of Denver coming up, the Washington Post’s Philip Rucker asks an important question of GOP candidate Mitt Romney: …[Romney] said that 47 percent of Americans will support Obama’s reelection and are government freeloaders who pay no income taxes, see themselves as “victims” and can’t be persuaded […]

( – promoted by Colorado Pols) With the 2012 Democratic National Convention having come to a close last night, pollsters like me turn to the public poll results to see what kind of bump in support each candidate has received.  Last week, I noted that the GOP convention failed to give Romney any kind of […]

(Part of the diary is moved below the fold for space considerations.   – promoted by ClubTwitty) It’s been fun to watch politicos jumping up and down to catch the attention of  Hispanic media outlets, when there was a time not long ago when such outlets were ignored and ignored again. Hence, in May, President […]

(Quick Poll of critical state and national importance.  Happy Holiday all–Be Safe!   – promoted by ClubTwitty) I Love Summer! But there is controversy even there.  My family is divided on how to eat corn on the cob.  Please help settle the proper way to devour corn on the cob.

( – promoted by Colorado Pols) Last month, after Rep. Mike Coffman said he didn’t know whether President Obama was an American “in his heart,” KNUS morning show host Steve Kelley wanted to talk to Coffman. He told his listeners May 25 that, maybe, Coffman’s comments weren’t “worthy of a major apology,” and he wanted […]