July 24, 2009 06:14 PM UTC

New Big Line

•  
• by: Colorado Pols

We’ve updated The Big Line. More on the changes we’ve made after the jump.

GOVERNOR

The race for Governor is close to a crapshoot, but we still give Bill Ritter the edge because he doesn’t have to worry about a primary. We’re still hesitant as to whether Josh Penry can raise the big bucks that he’ll need to win both a primary and a general election; for all Scott McInnis’ problems, raising money is not likely to be one of them.

U.S. SENATE

We’ve always doubted that a city council member (no matter the city) could make the ginormous jump to U.S. Senate, but supporters of Ryan Frazier had been insisting that he’s a special candidate.

Well, he’s not.

With an unimpressive first fundraising report in which he raised only about a third of what Weld County D.A. Ken Buck pulled down, Frazier showed that he’s taking too big a bite from the political apple. Your first report is vital when you are an unknown entity like Frazier, and he failed that test.

The GOP primary is now Buck’s to lose, but that’s only the booby prize. Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet now has $2.5 million in the bank, and if he keeps up his torrid fundraising pace, this race will be over by next Spring.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Republican John Suthers is the only statewide incumbent without an announced challenger. Democrats need to find a strong candidate soon in order to start laying the financial groundwork, but the longer they take the safer Suthers becomes.

TREASURER

The race for the GOP nomination between Walker Roberts Stapleton and J.J. Ament could be one of the more expensive in Colorado history. Stapleton raised an impressive amount of money in Q2, but few doubt that Ament can catch up. Meanwhile, Democrat Cary Kennedy continues to plug along with decent fundraising figures and will be sitting pretty while Stapleton and Ament beat the hell out of each other.

SECRETARY OF STATE

Incumbent Democrat Bernie Buescher is in good shape here. Republican Scott Gessler had an awful Q2, raising just $12,800 but spending more than $21,000. This shows two things: 1) Gessler really can’t raise money, and 2) Gessler has no idea what he is doing. You can’t piss away money if you aren’t raising enough to cover those losses.

CD-2

We’re not saying that Democrat Jared Polis is in trouble by any means, but sticking his head into the health care reform debate angered a lot of Democrats and made him look like he wasn’t representing the district he serves. If health care reform fails, Polis will be at the top of the list of those who get the blame on the Democratic side, which would open him up to devastating attacks in 2010 by a potential primary challenger.

Again, we’re not saying that this is going to happen or is even close to happening, but two weeks ago we saw no scenario whereby Polis would not be reelected in 2010. That’s not the case anymore.

CD-3

Republican Martin Beeson didn’t make any attempt to have an impressive first fundraising report, in part because he was late to file. But if he wasn’t ready to start off with a bang, he should have waited to file until Q3 – all of which shows that his candidacy isn’t really planned out. Incumbent Democratic Rep. John Salazar was never really in trouble anyway.

CD-4

The second fundraising quarter did a lot to clear up the outlook of this race. Incumbent Democrat Betsy Markey has raised a half-million dollars so far in 2009, and a crowded GOP primary will let her hold onto most of her warchest until the fall of 2010.

On the Republican side, Cory Gardner’s strong fundraising in Q2 has him firmly at the top of the list. Ft. Collins City Council member Diggs Brown is still the best theoretical candidate in the race (he has a good base in the most populous part of the district and a cool military background), but while he’s away on National Guard duty his staff is pillaging his campaign. Meanwhile, CU Regent Tom Lucero has proved in two straight quarters that he can’t raise money and won’t likely be a real challenger.

CD-6

Neither Democrat David Canter nor John Flerlage looks likely to even be competitive in 2010 against incumbent Republican Mike Coffman. Money is the name of the game early in these races, and Canter and Flerlage barely have two nickels to rub together between them.

CD-7

Incumbent Democrat Ed Perlmutter doesn’t even have a likely opponent yet, but he continues to put up huge fundraising quarters. With more than $800,000 in the bank already, no serious Republican candidate will likely even consider challenging Perlmutter.

Now, tell us why we’re wrong…