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November 08, 2016 06:37 AM UTC

Election Day 2016 Open Thread #1

  • 48 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“When I despair, I remember that the way of truth and love has always won. There may be tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they can seem invincible, but in the end, they always fall. Think of it: always.”

–Ben Kingsley, from Gandhi

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48 thoughts on “Election Day 2016 Open Thread #1”

    1. Two-thumbs up to DP for grabbing the opening salvo this morning and pushing our morans to the bottom of the feed.  They've been reduced to arguing the efficacy of the work of Mother Mary Harris Jones.  

      Just hours away from electing our first woman POTUS – what a great day. 

  2. Shorter Gandhi: All evil is transitory.

    Shorter DawnPatrol: Donald Drumpf is transitory, and the current (since 1980) iteration of the GOP-Nationalist White People Party is transitory.

  3. I've been trying to figure out the Real Clear Politics site. As of yesterday; and still this AM; they show Clinton winning by a 272 to 266 margin in the Electoral College. Everything else I've seen clearly shows Clinton taking Nevada, which RCP awards to Trump; and also Florida, which is closer. 538 predicts a Clinton win by 70% to 30% likelihood. Sabato's Crystal Ball, from University of Virginia Center for Politics, shows Clinton taking the College 322 to 216. While I remain unsure of North Carolina, which Sabato gives to Clinton, I think a landslide in the College of that margin is needed to quiet the Trumpies, at least a little. 

    Anyway, recall the line; for those old enough to remember; from the Temptations 1970 song, "Ball of Confusion."  "Vote for me and I'll set you free." 

    1. C.H.B., I agree that anything short of a clear cut win for H.R.C. will feed into the conspiracy/paranoia of the Trumpkins and the Tea Baggers. I put together my own list which is extremely conservative (with a small "C") as to which states I place in which column. It's a lot like the R.C.P. map except I have H.R.C. taking Nevada. I put everything else that's close (FL, NC, OH and the single ME C.D.) into Trump's column. H.R.C. wins with 278 electoral votes. Anything above that is gravy.

      My prediction on the Senate:  50/50 split. GOP takes nothing from Dems. Dems take IL, WI, PA and (this is the really sweet one) MO from the GOP. Evan Bayh and Roy Blunt both lose because people are sick of D.C. pols and their ties to lobbyists.

      Dems have a net gain of 6 House seats. There simply aren't enough seats in play in truly competitive districts. Paul Ryan ends up with a very close call on being renominated by his conference for speaker because the six Republican House members who lose their seats are (what pass as) moderates.

      Closer to home, the state senate remains 18 Republicans and 17 Dems. Laura Waters Woods loses but Nancy Doty wins. Dems keep the House. Sadly, the Congressional delegation remains the same. Morgan Carroll finishes with roughly the same percentage that Joe Melosi got in 2012.

      1. I also think Coffman will win. For the simple reason that no matter what he's up against – the guy wins. If so that sucks because Carroll would make a great representative. She'd be an agent of change.

        1. David, why do you think Coffman chickened out of running against Senator Bennet? I suspect it's because he fears he can't win outside of his little CD-6 fiefdom; higher visibility statewide would invite much tougher scrutiny, and he simply can't bear that much light…

          I also suspect Morgan Carroll squeaks it out, btw.

          1. Coffman has actually won three statewide races himself, while his wife won one.  I imagine the Coffman name is better known, throughout Colorado, than Bennet.

            I suspect Coffman stayed with the 6th CD in order to earn a shot at being the new chairman of the House Veterans Affair Committee in the 115th Congress.

    2. CHB, I'm giving N.C. to Clinton because I think the movement to fire Gov. McCrory will boost Dem turnout by quite a bit. He drove the state's economy off a cliff with that stupid "turn away the gays" law and he's still fighting to preserve it. His Dem opponent is Roy Cooper, the A.G. who refused to defend it. Pence was in the same boat after signing a similar bill in Indiana. He was in line for a drubbing until Trump tossed him a lifeline. He'll still lose, but now it'll be Trump's fault Pence isn't V.P.

      1. I'm originally from Indiana and still have family and friends there. Heard from long time friend couple weeks ago. He said Pence was in deep doo-doo if he had ran for re-election. We Hoosiers may be conservative, but we don't want somebody flucking with the state economy without good reason, as Pence did.

  4. I think the vote will favor Clinton more than the polls are showing. By just a couple of points, but a couple more points makes a landslide. She takes all the battleground states and will take or come very very close in Ohio & Arizona.

    Why?

    1. I think most undecideds are not so much undecided as they haven't accepted yet that no Donald requires a vote for Hillary. But today it's a binary choice where yuck beats no fucking way.

    2. Older women, who tend to be Republican, will look at that ballot and see the chance to put a woman in the White House. That's a gigantic emotional choice for the women who grew up with limited opportunities because of their gender. A lot of them will vote for Hillary and will then walk out after voting with tears of joy.

    1. God, I hope you are right! Especially about the older Republican women. They should take their cue from Barbara Bush who said months ago that she could not see how any woman could vote for Trump.

  5. Colorado hits the VICE "news" early on.

    Early voting data from Colorado

    The data:

    Clinton: 46 percent

    Trump: 44 percent

    Johnson: 7.2 percent

    What it means: Colorado allows voters to mail in their ballots early, which gives us some early voting data to analyze. Of the 1.53 million total votes analyzed thus far, the VoteCastr model projects that Clinton is leading Trump 46 percent to 44 percent.

    — Noah Kulwin

    They are claiming " VoteCastr’s models and methods are based on the same techniques that presidential campaigns use. Its founders were part of previous presidential campaigns for Barack Obama and George W. Bush. What we see is likely what the war rooms inside the presidential campaigns are seeing. "

    Anyone agree?

  7. Just visited Colorado Peak Politics site…….and you just never know where you will find good stuff. Yesterday, former state senator Greg Brophy wrote an excellent guest column about why he is voting for 106, the end of life ballot initiative. I think it's well worth a read.

      1. I'm guessing we'll never see this published in The Wray Gazette. Our shared hometown is blanketed with yard signs offering a different opinion. He's never been pro-life, he's pro-birth. 

  8. Oh fuck me, it's almost over!!! I've got a fridge full of beer and playlists ready for Her victory. I'm not thinking about what I'll do if Dumpster wins.

  9. Shorter Ben Kingsley. Nope, he is already.

    The Utter Failure and Cowardice of Republican Party Leaders

    Revealed: That Mr. Trump’s unrelenting and apparently irrepressible bigotry, misogyny, bullying and conspiracy-mongering won’t keep Republican leaders from supporting him, provided he mouth pieties about appointing more Scalias to the court or cutting corporate tax rates. 

    And…

    Also revealed: That conservatives who once took umbrage at being called racist or anti-Semitic are now happy to flirt with white nationalism. That a party of self-described strict constructionists sees nothing amiss in Mr. Trump’s call to rewrite the 14th Amendment. That the ability of Mr. Trump and his supporters to hurl insults at their critics is only exceeded by their exquisite sensitivity when they are insulted back. 

    And…

    What isn’t normal is the ease with which so many conservative leaders, political and intellectual, have prostrated themselves before Mr. Trump simply because he won. In July, Dan Senor, a senior adviser to Mitt Romney in 2012, tweeted that he had once commiserated with a Midwestern governor about how unacceptable Mr. Trump was as the GOP nominee. That governor? Mike Pence.

    Rather than being their BFF's and yearn for another era of Great Bipartisanship, Democrats need to remind voter of this at every opportunity:

    What all this shows is that most conservative intellectuals have proved incapable of self-examination or even simple observation. Donald Trump is a demagogue. Period. The fervor of his crowds recalls Nasser’s Egypt. His convictions are illiberal. His manners are disgusting. His temper is frightening. It ought to have been the job of thoughtful conservatives in this season to point this out, time and again. If they can’t do that, what good are they?

     

  11. This is an interesting read:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/opinion/beyond-lying-donald-trumps-authoritarian-reality.html

    The goal of totalitarian propaganda is to sketch out a consistent system that is simple to grasp, one that both constructs and simultaneously provides an explanation for grievances against various out-groups. It is openly intended to distort reality, partly as an expression of the leader’s power. Its open distortion of reality is both its greatest strength and greatest weakness.

    Donald Trump is trying to define a simple reality as a means to express his power. The goal is to define a reality that justifies his value system, thereby changing the value systems of his audience.

      1. Has nothing to do with "hope and change"  or with "stronger together." Problem for Trump; one of many; is that his campaign has been one GIGANTIC lie from the start. 

      2. Pee Pee, either through willful ignorance or apathy, it seems you might have missed this about your party and its candidates:

        The politics of exploiting racism, bigotry, hatred, and fear has long been a core strategic component of the Republican Party. In this regard, a straight line runs from Barry Goldwater through Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan to the current GOP nominee. It may be a tough truth for many Republicans and conservatives to handle. But the party has long relied on racial resentment and patriotic animus as high-octane fuel to power its way into office. Sometimes it has done so behind a veil of euphemisms and smiles—with what it could claim as plausible deniability. Yet with Trump as the Republican nominee this year—with a large majority of its voters and officials supporting him—the party has traded a dog whistle for a megaphone.

         

        http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/this-election-is-a-referendum-on-hate-donald-trump-hillary-clinton

        2. Mother Jones……oh that is funny, is this what Democrats resort to quoting? Surely you have something better, Mother Jones, your killing me……. 

          1. Pitiful Pair — Sorry to hear that you find the GOP turning to fascism, totalitarianism and racism so funny.  You must find George Orwell's 1984 totally hilarious.

            Good thing a majority of voters do not agree with you. 

          2. A US Senate committee once labeled Mother Mary Harris Jones "the most dangerous woman in America."  She fought for women's rights, fought against child labor and injected herself in to the Ludlow Massacre issue.  She had more grit and courage in her pinky than you have in your entire being.  

            1. O…….K, and good for her, but I don't think she wrote the article Davie thinks is so important. Don't I get some credit for grit by putting up with all you Democrat Democratic haters?

                1. Little problem for you there, P.P. I'm not a Democratic hater. I'm a long time registered Republican and pretty conservative at that (paraphrasing someone else around here from last few days: "stay out of my wallet and keep your religious dogma out of my bedroom"). I have yet to see that you have any genuine Republican bona-fides; and I don't include your shilling for Corrupt and Sleazy Donald since he's a Republican only by convenience. He's actually sort of a modern-day Mussolini. 

              2. The publication is founded on the principles and values of Mother Mary Harris Jones, moran.  I was wrong earlier.  There isn't enough sugar in town to make a palatable compote out of you. 

  12. Early results are good for Clinton. Votecastr (visit their site for their methodology) has the following:

    Colo: Clinton +5, with 72.2% vote in

    FL: Clinton +4, 75% in

    Iowa: Trump +1, 56% in

    Nev.: Clinton +3, 59% in

    NH: Clinton +3, 44% in

    Ohio, Clinton +1, 60% in

    PA Clinton + 4, 46% in

    Wis: Clinton +6, 48% in.  

    If this holds, a comfortable victory for Clinton, though not a blowout.

  15. I was hoping this election would have been about GOP obstructionism.  Government shutdowns, debt defaults, Supreme Court nomination blocking, lack of legislation passing, etc.  Instead, the media took polling showing the country is headed in the wrong direction as just a general malaise.  Of course, the Dems failed to generate a message about obstructionism.  As a result, Hillary will face an emboldened House, even with Morgan Carroll as a new member, that will continue to obstruct as it waits for the 2018 onslaught that is sure to come.  Sad, but at least the country lives to see another day (I hope).

    1. True — the media is unable or unwilling to connect the dots.  Recently I saw an article on a similar poll, and they were bewildered by the fact that Obama's rating were rising.  

      Apparently, simpleton thinking is that our God/King (any President) must save us or He is entirely to blame.  No wonder Trump has built a significant following of true believers in his new Trump Brand Messiah

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