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November 14, 2008 08:50 PM UTC

Christmas in November! A New Big Line!

  • 80 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Now that 2008 is so over with, it’s time to look to 2010! Who did we forget? Comments encouraged!

Note: There is no line for CD-1 or CD-5, because they are both completely uncompetitive unless something drastic happens (or redistricting).

Comments

80 thoughts on “Christmas in November! A New Big Line!

  1. Why is it that you think this district is becoming more competitive?  The Democrat got 40% again this year.  This is all the Deomcrat has ever gotten.  Even in wave years (2006, 2008) and even with a lot of money (Conti).  No chance, no way, no time.

    1. Coffman could be vulnerable to a primary challenge if he doesn’t live up to expectations (doubtful), or could try to step up to governor or senator, making the district competitive (he’s a notorious climber, this will be the FIFTH elective office he’s held). The district is also prime territory for the sort of suburban growth the Democrats have been exploiting, same as the 4th, so could become more competitive.

          1. Are you familiar with the 6th?  I would say that the 4th was a better target for the dems because of some of the demographic shifts that have occured in placed like Fort Collins, Greely,Dacono, Frederick etc. It usually helps the dems when there is a strong college campus influence in a large populated area (read:  Fort Collins).

            The 6th is a totally different animal, in my opinion.  You may have a slight shit in places like Littleton to a more moderate to dem leaning populace, but you still have places like Castle Rock, Parker, south Arapahoe etc. that will almost always trend R.  There may have been a small shift this year with Obama on the ticket withink certain segments of the 6th, but it is a long shot to compare Markey’s win with having an actual shot in 6.  Good luck though, I would invite you to spend a massive amount of $$ there….

            1. But a big dump in places like Douglas County?

              Yes, I’m quite familiar with the 6th and lived in it for 20 years until redistricted into the 7th. Of course Coffman is a great fit for the district as it stands now — strong on national security (at least from a traditional Republican standpoint) and fiscal conservatism without the divisive social issue bent — probably a better fit than Tancredo. But there’s a seismic suburban shift going on nationwide, and Colorado is at the leading edge — Jeffco and Arapahoe are Blue counties, and that’s a big chunk of the 6th to balance Douglas. A serious candidate (which the 6th has never had) gives Coffman a run for things in 2010. That’s all.

    2. The district is voting more and more for Democrats for President and statewide office. It’s not competitive yet, but it’s not as bad as CD-1 or CD-5.

      1. I haven’t seen anything like this.  Most of the parts of Jeffco and Arapahoe in this district and Douglas County are all still very reliably Republican.  The mountainous areas of Jeffco even voted for the R state Senate candidate when Joan FG has reliably carried this area in the past.  Where’s the beef?

              1. about 44% to Coffman’s 56%  last time I checked the County site. Still, we would need a very special candidate to have a shot any time in the near future  combined with  a seriously weakened (scandal, indictment) incumbent Coffman.  Not likely in the next two years.  

                If we COULD come up with a widely known popular name candidate who polled well, we’d be a better place to put some serious money in 2010 than CD5 or the rest of the CDs where Dems will be strong incumbents.  Even Markey won this time by a big margin.

                CD6 would be a more logical next place to advance than CD5, but that isn’t saying much.   Dreams of conquering CD6 will probably have to wait until redistricting, if then.  

    3. …C.D. 6 could be drawn to be competitive.  Her Highness would still win with 55-60%, instead of with 75%, but the Dems could gain another C.D. in Colorado.

        1. The court has now weighed in on priorities for CDs in Colorado.

          Among those priorities is keeping counties (particularly Denver County) in tact.

          In the lawsuit that resulted in the districts as they are currently drawn in Colorado Denver and the Western Slope were noted in the ruling as priority communities of interest.

          The fact that DeGette doesn’t want to spilt Denver is beside the point now.  Even if she did, a map that split Denver to achieve political competetiveness in other districts for instance could be the basis for a court challenge to that map.

          Court approval of any redistricting map (if that occurs after 2010 because of redistricting being thrown into court for some reason) will take a number of factors into consideration to judge the efficacy of a particular map.  After equal size (one man one vote), compactness and contiguousness, minimization of the  diminishment of minority voting rights, etc. the issues of community of interest come into play.  And as I said, the court has now ruled that among those priority communties of interest in Colorado are cities and counties (and Denver in particular) and the Western Slope.

          1. I assumed there would be enough BIG names goiong for this that someone like me would not be considered.

            However, if the news here is correct and there are not any takers, perhaps I will put in my name.

            God knows there some cleanup that needs to happen at that office and I am generally not afraid to break a few eggs to get it done.

            I’ll sleep on it and work on the application tomorrow if I think I should go forward. My understanding is the deadline is Monday.

            What’s the worse that would happen? If I don’t get it and be no better or worse than where I am now.

            1. Is there anything in your background that might be an embarrassment to the Governor or you if it were to become

              public?

              No line for an explanation.

              Seriously though, I think Gordon is planning on submitting Monday.  Romanoff probably will, unless he doubled his award trip with a job hunting trip.

              If it’s just Gordon, you’ve got a shot.  Go for it!

              http://www.colorado.gov/cs/Sat

  2. Wasn’t it Dick Wadhams’ plan all along, to squander his energies on a futile Schaffer race to lull Democrats into complacency and then — in a bold, unexpected move — retake the state House and Senate in 2010? He’s said as much (well, without the first part).

  3. Suthers and Penry should be listed above all other challengers, as Pols’ own poll showed just last week. You didn’t even include them!!! Either you don’t won’t to give credibility to either, our you don’t have your ear to the ground in Republican circles, Pols. I’ll venture it’s the former…

    Tancredo would be next, then McInnis, Beauprez, Wiens, and Elway.

      1. But don’t assume the two are mutually exclusive. From what I’ve heard, Suthers is strongly considering a run at the Guv, with the private sector as a second option.

      1. Truant is right – Suthers and Penry belong at the top of the line.  Another that should be on is Rep. Don Marostica.  I’d say the line should be Ritter (5-1), Suthers (6-1), McInnis (10-1), Marostica (12-1), Beauprez (30-1), Elway (100-1), Tancredo (200-1), Weins (300-1).  

        Of course, if Hank Brown jumps in, he jumps over Ritter and would start at 3-2.

  4. Why not include Tom Lucero in the 4th CD line?

    As a CU Regent, he already has won a race in the 4th CD. Plus he managed to pass Amendment 54 in a toxic year for statewide ballot questions.

    Regardless of how you view his chances in a 4th CD GOP primary, he at least deserves a mention.

    1. Its amazing what has happened to the Republican party in the 4th CD. Most of the new names are from the wrong part of the district . . . two hundred miles from the population center that is focused on Larimer, Weld and Boulder counties. Gardner, Hillman (and where’s Brophy) are from out on the Kansas line. The Republicans should run a moderate from Larimer, Weld or Boulder counties.

      Schaffer, Buck and Lundberg are certainly not moderates even though they reside in the right geographic part of the district. The Republicans simply don’t have the kind of candidate available to run against U.S. Rep. Markey. This is another example of how weak the Colorado Republican Party has become and another example why it will remain so until the social/religious conservatives are no longer in control.

    2. It would be an uncomfortably awkward turnaround, given he just picked off a Larimer County Commissioner seat, but Steve Johnson is a possibility. Lundberg is too busy making a play for Johnson’s seat, but if he doesn’t get that, he won’t have anything else to do….

      Fort Collins mayor Doug Hutchinson is another strong possibility, if you want a Republican who plays well in Democratic territory….

      Greg Brophy is definitely making noises to the Coloradoan: http://coloradoan.com/article/

      1. I don’t know much more than that.

        Bill’s got him out raising money with the thought that if he can build up up cash and build an organization he might stand a chance.

      2. Ron Clark and Bill Winter are fans of the guy. He has already touched base with the key people in the Democratic Party and they haven’t pushed him aside, so that is one small hurdle already passed.

        This will be his first run for office. Not a marquee name by any measure, but least he is getting an early start, and won’t have to re-invent absolutely everything the way Eng, Winter and Conti did.

      1. “Unless he casts some vote that’s completely out of step with the voters in the 5th Congressional District, he is in that seat as long as he cares to hold it, or as long as his health and life hold out.”

        – Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado College, on how politically safe U.S. Rep. Doug Lamborn  (R) is.

        -The Gazette

  5. This may merit its own section, but I’ve been wondering if this is not the perfect time to fix Colorado’s chaotic redistricting process.  I confess I haven’t done any research, but at least a couple of other states have some kind of independent, non-partisan process for redistricting.  

    It’s 2 years to the next election, and Dems are in firm control right now so we could make sure it’s done right (and despite all the crowing that’s been going on, the pendulum WILL swing back someday, plus Ritter isn’t all that secure). And the 2010 results don’t come out until about 2 years later.

    Aside from the fact that a fair redistricting process is simply the right thing to do, we can use it as an example of Dem maturity/selflessness/bipartisanship/public spirit – as opposed to hoping we are in control at the right time so we can skew things as insanely as the Reps tried to do (the temptation is almost irresistable). Who knows, it might even make some dents in the walls between the parties during the next legislative session.  Takes some long-term thinking, but may be worth it.  

    1. It isn’t pretty, but Colorado’s districts are hardly the ugly beasts found in most states. The congressional districts in particular are pretty darn logical given the strict rules on one man one vote. I mean they almost all run along county lines. That is emphatically not the case in California, for example.

      What do you see as wrong with it?

  6. Tancredo has so many well-known liabilities that giving him the best odds of all candidates except Ritter seems too charitable towards him.

    He’s the one candidate who would engender a passionate, almost fanatical opposition.

  7. My nonpartisan analysis:

    – Tancredo was a one-trick pony in the presidential election. People would want to know how he would look after Coloradans as a whole, not just on a few issues. Red meat speeshes are good for the base, but Americans have shown a taste for a more inclusive politics.

    – Wiens would be interesting. Name recognition would be important, as would a look at his State Senate record. Worth a good look for Conservatives. He’s a solid Conservative, someone who could bring a different set of ideas to the race.

    – McInnis could be seen as damaged goods, in light of recent statements against Dick Wadhams. Any run he makes would depend on if Wadhams retains his chair or not. A schism in the party would hurt any candidate, especially for someone who could be seen as benefiting form it. An interesting storyline to follow.

    – Elway could be problematic. As iconic as he is in Colorado, would he be open to the intrusions into his personal life and the lives of his family? Questions are bound to come up about his divorce. Also, what are his political aspirations as a whole? Athletes have run for office with widely mixed results. knowing where he sees himself in politics would help people make their decision early.

    What’s important for Republicans is to ask yourselves “who could be the face of the party for the mountain west?” You need to look for a transformational leader, who’ll put the party back together and help you find the common goal, which shouldn’t be the systematic destruction of Democrats. Find someone who’ll move the party, not just ideologically.

    I sincerely hope that the Republican party can find a worthy candidate for every office. No seat should be safe. That leads to complacency, which is bad for the state and the nation.

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