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November 06, 2008 07:09 PM UTC

Predictions: How'd We Do?

  • 7 Comments
  • by: Dan Willis

I thought it would be about time to have a thread to review out predictions and how we fared.

My comments are below the fold. I should not give up my day job to become a fortune teller.

I seem to be losing my touch this year. This is by far my worst performance as a predictor.

CD4: I predicted Musgrave and am absolutely thrilled I was wrong. I made my predictions maybe too early. If I had made them closer to election day I would have likely predicted a Markey win, but I was not a believer yet in early Oct.

SD26: At the moment it looks like Dem Linda Newell has made a liar out of me. But there are still provisionsals and apparently 10K Arapco ballots to be counted so this one may not be over. I truly dislike Lauri Clapp so I am really hoping Linda remains the choice in this district.

HD17: What can I say, Dems are not supposed to do well in El Paso County. Dennis Apuan went against conventional wisdom.

HD30: It was not until a couple of days ago that I was told of Dave Rose’s unpopularity with many people in his area due to his job with the local schools. I based my prediction on the seats being Dem-leaning, but Kevin Priola (R) won it.

HD36: I knew I was going out on a limb predicting Mollie would win, but I was hoping she had built up steam since last time, not lost it.

HD37: Apparently this race is called for Swalm, but Diana Holland may have a new chance with the discovery that 10,000 Arapco ballots still had to be counted. I predicted for Holland and will hold off conceding this one until those 10k + the provisionals are counted.

HD55: It seems this one is over even though margin is very slim. I guess there must not be enough provisionals in Mesa County to change the outcome. I am sorry to see Bernie go. He was a very pragmatic legislator. I fear his successor will be less so.

Amend. 46: This failing at the moment but there are enough ballots still be counting to not make that a lock. I predicted it would win, but I will be happy to be wrong on this.

Amend. 49: I think people had a hard time remembering the numbers and wasn’t sure which was the really anti-labor one, 47 or 49, so they voted them both down to be safe.

Amend. 51: I thought people would be more willing to help these folks even in a bad economy. I was wrong.

Amend. 59: I think the campaign focused on the wrong part of the amendment here. They focused on funding schools. Funding anything in a difficult economy is not popular, so they should have focused on the de-Brucing aspect. Most people understand (or at least remember from Ref C) that the Constitution has an economic quagmire that needs to be fixed.

Ref. L: The failure of this one takes me by total surprise. I viewed this as a simple, non-controversial, house keeping measure to bring an age limit in line with most of the rest of society. Still not sure why it lost.

Comments

7 thoughts on “Predictions: How’d We Do?

  1. The MN Senate race is officially the closest contest of the major races this year.

    Franken is now behind only 377 votes Coleman and closing (out of 2.423 million votes total).  They are still counting absentees, problem ballots, and provisionals.

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