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November 02, 2008 08:01 AM UTC

Over half the votes in Colorado have been cast.

  • 2 Comments
  • by: DavidThi808

Ok, lets say you are a senate candidate named Bob Schaffer and you’re losing by 10 points. Well here’s some news from the Secretary of State that tells you it’s all over:

Active Registered Voters 2,636,834  
Number of Mail-In Ballots Received 1,112,782 42.2%
Number of Early Voting Ballots Cast 365,054 13.8%

So 56% of active registered voters. As not all active voters actually vote, over 56% of the votes are in. So, to win, Bob Schaffer needs to beat Mark Udall by over 20% – which would be a flip of 30 points. We’re at the point where Mark Udall could cut an ad endorsing Bob Schaffer – and Schaffer would still lose.

The Senate race is over. Once we see the final results on a number of other races, we will learn that many of them were over by this point. And a few are so close that we need to do everything we can over the next 3 days – Obama, Amendments 58 & 59, etc.

Remember, a team that is kicking ass in a game wins by continuing to outplay their opponent. If they sit back and coast, then they lose. We can still lose this puppy. So every moment the campaign offices are open – get down there and volunteer.

Comments

2 thoughts on “Over half the votes in Colorado have been cast.

  1. The early voters this year comprise 68.8% of the total vote in 2004.  The partisan breakdown of voters so far is 37.7% Democratic, 35.9% Republican (leaving only 26.4% “other”).

    A chart of early voting for the major counties (h/t Panglozz on Daily Kos):

    county ..... 2004 Tot ... EV/2004 .. Kerry
    Jefferson  ..... 89% ..... 63% ..... 47%
    Denver     ..... 78% ..... 59% ..... 70%
    Arapahoe   ..... 82% ..... 56% ..... 47%
    El Paso    ..... 82% ..... 53% ..... 32%
    Larimer    ..... 82% ..... 71% ..... 47%
    Boulder    ..... 87% ..... 63% ..... 66%
    Douglas    ..... 79% ..... 71% ..... 33%
    Adams      ..... 79% ..... 61% ..... 51%
    Weld       ..... 77% ..... 68% ..... 36%
    Mesa       ..... 82% ..... 67% ..... 32%
    Pueblo     ..... 81% ..... 54% ..... 53%
    Broomfield ..... 75% ..... 76% ..... 47%
    La Plata   ..... 83% ..... 55% ..... 53%

    Finally, a not terribly reliable sub-sample: PPP’s polling indicates that, of their polling sample, 65% had already voted and among that sub-sample, Obama held a significant lead, which I won’t repeat here because as noted above a winning team plays through to the very end and doesn’t need to be misled by optimistic poll data.  (More significant than the turnout numbers indicate…)

  2. Its one of the reasons the last few weeks have actually been less negative than the beginning of October.

    “At this point, in the last week of a campaign, you have to excuse whatever anybody says,” Popkin told NEWSEEK. “He can’t say ‘it’s over,’ or Republicans will never talk to him again.” You don’t have to be a cynic to wonder if the McInturff memo is more of an effort to rally the troops in the face of depressing poll numbers than it is serious scholarship. In 1980, when pollster Pat Caddell told President Carter, before a single vote had been cast, that he would lose by a big margin to Ronald Reagan, a Grade-B movie actor, Carter was so humiliated he just wanted to get the whole thing over with. On Election Day, he rushed to concede before the polls had closed on the West Coast, costing Democrats seats in the House and Senate as morale plummeted and voters stayed home, assuming the election was over.

    Whatever McCain’s fate on Election Day, Republicans need to get out their vote to salvage what they can in congressional and state races. After the conventions, it looked for a time as though McCain might overcome the historical odds against him as the standard-bearer for a party and a president that had lost credibility with voters. Democrats worried about the recriminations in their party if Obama lost. If the Democrats couldn’t win the White House in this climate, when could they? Imagine the chorus of “I told you so” coming from the Hillary camp. The more likely scenario now is the implosion of the Republican Party, especially if it’s an Obama blowout.

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/166680

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