U.S. Senate See Full Big Line

(D) J. Hickenlooper*

(R) Somebody

80%

20%

Governor See Full Big Line
(D) Michael Bennet

(D) Phil Weiser

60%↑

50%↓

Att. General See Full Big Line

(D) M. Dougherty

(D) Jena Griswold

60%↑

40%↑

Sec. of State See Full Big Line
(D) A. Gonzalez

(D) J. Danielson

(R) Sheri Davis
50%

40%

30%
State Treasurer See Full Big Line

(D) Brianna Titone

(D) Jeff Bridges

(R) Kevin Grantham

40%

40%

30%

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

(R) Somebody

90%

2%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

(R) Somebody

90%

2%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Hurd*

(D) Somebody

80%

40%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert*

(D) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Jeff Crank*

(D) Somebody

80%

20%

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) B. Pettersen*

(R) Somebody

90%

10%

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(R) Gabe Evans*

(D) Manny Rutinel

(D) Yadira Caraveo

45%↓

40%↑

30%

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
November 03, 2014 01:59 PM UTC

ELECTION EVE UPDATE: Colorado Voter Turnout

  • 18 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Screen Shot 2014-11-03 at 12.58.02 PM

UPDATE: A final memo from Mark Udall's campaign manager Adam Dunstone, who worked the 2010 Michael Bennet campaign, projects confidence as Democrats continue to chip away at the GOP's early ballot-return lead:

The biggest difference between this year and Sen. Bennet’s race is that Colorado now mails ballots to every registered voter in the state. This will likely increase turnout from 1.8 million to over 2 million — good news for us.

With 1.4 million ballots already processed, that means an estimated 600,000 (at the very least) are still making their way through the mail or have not yet been placed in a ballot drop box. That’s at least 1/3 of the vote that hasn’t yet come in, and as we’ve seen over the past four years, the late vote overwhelmingly benefits Democrats. 

In Colorado’s only other all mail-in ballot election, 2013, more than 39% of the votes came in the final two days of balloting. Those two days saw the disparity between Republican and Democratic votes decrease by more than 2.5 points. We expect a similar proportion of votes to be counted on Monday and Tuesday…

According to our modeling, Latinos already make up the same share of the electorate that they did in 2010 — and their percentage of the electorate will continue to grow. When all is said and done, Latinos will make up an even larger share of the electorate than they did in 2010.

23 percent of the Democrats who have voted thus far did not vote in 2010, including 17 percent who voted in 2012 but not 2010. These are your quintessential drop-off voters who traditionally don’t vote in midterm elections. This is a key number to keep an eye on, and 23% is great news for us.

—–

Alright, Polsters, it's time to dust off those cliches. We're going down to the wire, where we wait for the fat lady to sing about counting your chicks, blah, blah, blah.

Here's the latest update on voter turnout figures. The big question, of course, revolves around final turnout numbers. If turnout is closer to 2010, then counties such as Douglas, El Paso, and Weld, respectively, are getting close to their voter ceiling. But if turnout moves closer to 2012 numbers, then the Big Three of Arapahoe, Denver, and Jefferson counties aren't even halfway home.

Turnout in Colorado election eve

 

Tweet
Share

Comments

18 thoughts on “ELECTION EVE UPDATE: Colorado Voter Turnout”

  1. Also posted under the Q-poll report:

    Today's breakdown of submitted ballots by party:

    Statewide:
    D: 33%, R: 41%, U: 26% 

    The D-R gap continues to narrow:

    15% to 12% to 10.4% to 9.3% to 9.1% to 8% while the Us keep climbing.

    For this set of numbers, Ds need 2/3rds of Us to tie Rs.

    1. You are correct, but if the D inch up only one more percent, and the U inch up one more percent, the R lead (over the D's) will be 5%.  In that case, the D's need to carry just under 60% of the U.  It is going to be a nail biter.

  3. Also from Adam's memo:

    "Smashing through our goals including knocking on more than 1 million doors (including 500,000 in the last four days of the campaign) and 2 million phone calls."

    Take that Koch suckers!

    1. Andrew: once again, you earn the quote from the great seer & philosopher, Yogi Berra:  "it ain't over 'til it's over."

      If we Republicans do take the Senate, we won't have much time to gloat and crow. Of the 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2016, 24 of them are Republican. And a number of those are in states that Obama easily carried twice. We will clearly have to show that we can govern.     C.H.B.

      2. CHB, It is over except for the certificate.

        I prefer the Yogism of "the place is so crowded nobody goes there anymore."  There are a  lot to chose from.

        There is too much ground for the Dems to make up and not enough votes to make it up with.  2/3 of the votes are in.  This is not early voting.  This is now the main show.

        As you know CHB it is a lot easier to hold a Senate seat than take one from an incumbent.  I like our chances in 2016 as well. In part it will depend on how many incumbents retire, that is what really made the takeover possible.

    2. 7 points R advantage is the magic number, my friend. Dems won both statewides in 2010 with that margin. Unaffilliates always go blue. You should be watching the last set of mail ballot numbers very closely. If it dips down to 7, your guys are sunk.

      1. BD,  This is not the early vote of 2010.  2/3 of the total votes are in.  At the same point in the process the R number was over 10.  If the number tomorrow am is 1.6 million votes in and the R's are up 125 K.  The remaining 500 K votes are not going to get you where you need to be.

        1. AC, in all honestly seeing that anyone reading this site lived through the Karl Rove/Dick Morris "Romeny in a landslide" fiasco and Bennet's come from behind win in 2010 how can you possibly believe anything you are posting here, let alone expect anyone else to believe it?

          Do yourself a favor and quit while you are behind, already. Or, I supposed, you're being paid by the word, so your trapped. Not entirely your fault, I guess.  

      2. exactly – poor achole and that nasty rash 

        in order to win in Colorado (9+ / 0-)

        Rs needs to have an voter advantage of 8.6%, currently they are at 8% and dropping. in 2010 the Rs lead early voting by 6.8%, Bennett won by 1.7%. Rs had a small lead in 2012,  obama won by nearly 6 points. Projections are that the R lead after early voting is complete will be lower than that in 2010, in short the election is following the same trend as in 2010 and 2012- Rs lead early voting but the Dems vote late and overcome the early deficit to win. Udall is probably going to win despite a poor campaign, because of GOTV and the states lean.

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Gabe Evans
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

84 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!

Colorado Pols