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October 29, 2014 06:28 AM UTC

Wednesday Open Thread

  • 64 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath!

–From William Shakespeare's The Merchant of Venice

Comments

64 thoughts on “Wednesday Open Thread

    1. I recall from my childhood, a lesson my grandmother made sure we understood. Being a devout Christian, she explained to us in that context that the devil personified is not the hideous, pointy-tailed monster often portrayed in historical literature, but rather, the most beautiful angel ever created by God. In fact, it was that exceptional beauty (and subsequent ego problem) that helped drive Lucifer to challenge Gods' Omnipotence.

      Corys' physical appearance (dapper…nice smile…great hair) is a perfect cover for his dark, corrupt and generally putrid inner self. It is why "Con man Cory" is such an excellent appelation to describe the flim flam artist from Yuma.

            1. Please, let's not get into the "secret numbers" thing.  There are multiple sources for voter information including the WIF's site and the SOS's ACE site I've mentioned.  Folks can also purchase a subscription to election records with hourly updates here in CO (see here).  So if one is connected (in any sense of the word) with a campaign or political organization, one likely has this information in near-real-time.

              This is not mystery data from some illicit source.

    1. In other news, just yesterday over 7,000 children died (globally) from hunger, 150 died from (mostly preventable) epileptic seizures, Donald Trump still has more bankruptcies under his belt than we have Ebola cases and FauxSnooze continues their 24/7 Ebola-palooza.  And as a bonus for the cretins, we lost more children so school gun violence in one day last week than lives claimed by Ebola on American soil.

      Indeed, let's keep talking about 'incompetence'.... (it's just not who you think it is)

      1. My apologies Michael.  I didn't finish reading your post including the last sentence before posting mine.  The Faux News screeches terrified alarms doing anything about gun violence in the US but they want every conceivable action taken to deal with the virtually non-existent Ebola scare including forbidding entry into the US of those foreign black skinned people.  So which one poses more of threat to innocent Americans?
         

        1. In the eyes of the conservative Republicans, a certain number of gun deaths is acceptable because sacrifices must be made for the freedom of ammosexuals.    Those children give their lives in defense of the Second Amendment.

          Even one death in the U.S. from Ebola, OTOH, is cause for great angst amongst conservatives because only foreigners can give us that disease.

          There you have it.  The "reasoning" of the xenophobic gun nuts running the modern GOP.

          1. And speaking of the constant GOTP fear-mongering on Ebola, as someone pointed out the other day, the average American currently has a greater likelihood of being a living ex-Beatle than contracting Ebola.

            I'd say that gets things back in perspective, and puts these loathsome right-wing foXX nooZe cowards in their place.

    1. I'ts OK Z.  The sun will rise on Nov. 5th even it Dems get blown out locally and nationally.  The I-Ching says that the zenith is also the start of decline.  Dems. have made some great progress and put the country back on the road to economic recovery.  History will be kind to Obama and Repubs will be on the hot seat now if they are forced to govern and don't come up with anything better than the lame policies that they promoted during the Bush years.  It's not the outcome that defines us but the effort and struggle.  We'll be OK.

    2. Obama will be able to handle a hostile Congress.  Clinton had to do it.  Bush had to do it.  He won't be facing re-election so he won't be under any personal duress to not veto their crazy bills.  He'll do fine in the last period of his presidency regardless of who controls Congress.  I have no doubts that this intelligent person has learned about how to do his job regardless of the political consequences.  History is going to look back at his pacifist approach to dealing with Republicans and portray it as a Lincolnesque effort to hold the Union together and I think he is going to succeed.  They are not my enemies.  They are my fellow citizens and I will not see them as the enemy although they are crazy and can't be trusted with the car keys.  Sometimes it's tough sledding being a winter soldier and holding on to hope for seeing a sunny spring day.
       

      1. If you were dependent on Social Security for things like food, etc., you might very well see Repugs as the enemy. 

        And, to beat a dead horse some, if you saw any combat in Iraq, you would definitely see Repugs as the enemy. The guns being used against you were given to members of the insurgency by the Bush administration. (Fact, not conspiracy theory.)

    1. What a joke Quinnipac has become – they had Beauprez up 10 then Hick up 10 and now it's back to Beauprez up 5 … by their standards, Hick should win by 5. 

      1. The saddest aspect of this, as it pertains to our modern world is, is the practice

        of the discarding of "what is the truth?" and replacing it with " what can we sell?".

        1. Kind of like saying Udall is going to win because of GOTV.  Here's how Nate's shop sees it.

          FIVETHIRTYEIGHT ANALYSIS

          DEM

          REP

          MARGIN

          Polling average

          43.6

          46.1

          R+2.6

          Adjusted polling average

          43.8

          45.9

          R+2.1

          State fundamentals

          43.2

          43.2

          R+0.0

          Now-cast

          43.8

          45.8

          R+2.0

          Projected vote share

          47.8

          49.9

          R+2.1

          Chance of winning

          23%

          77%

          1. Nate's beholden to idiotic polls such as Quinnipacs, Suffolk's and Rassmusan's … polls such as these are why 2010 showed Buck winning and 2012 had Romney and Obama in a dead heat although Obama won by 5. 

            Keep looking at that crystal ball, Nostradamus. 

    2. Both Ways went to the bank again and loaned himself more $$$.  He's up to about $800,000 now.  In the last two weeks, he raised about a quarter of a million yet had to borrow over $300,000.

      Hick has loan himself zero.

  1. Among my friends, I am known to have a perverted sense of humor.

    While surfing the net I spied this combination of headlines: 

    15 Medievel Hygiene Practices That Might Make You Queasy

    and immediately below that:

    Keep Cory Gardner Out

    I thought they went together very well.

  2. PEC (Sam Wang's prediction shop) has upgraded the probability of Democratic Senate control from 45% to 50% (plus or minus 15%).  That is, of course, still a tossup but the direction is certainly in the right direction. The upgrade is due to improved numbers for Udall and Braley.

      1. He was.  Now he is using partisan polls to offset public polls to obtain a desired result.  That is not a ticket to continued polling success.

      1. Two major differences.

        1.  Much lower Dem turnout this cycle. (2010 36% ballots vs. 2014 32.4% ballots) (Republicans are up 1.1%, Unaffiliated up 2.2%)

        2.  Gardner and Udall each get 90% of their party's vote.  In 2010 the social issues helped Bennet and Buck got 89% of Republican votes while Udall got 94% of Dem votes.

        1. BS – go check turnout in Boulder. There are on average some 10-15K more Dem ballots in 2014 than in 2010 on several days about a week from election day. We will learn soon how many of those are new voters compared to 2010 and when we do, we will know Udall has won well before election day.

          Boulder is one of the few counties that publishes this info on its website. 

          Your math is wrong. Sorta like Karl Rove's and Dick Morris' math was wrong in 2012 and Ken Buck's in 2010. 

          1. I went with the Statewide numbers because everyone in the state votes in the US Senate, not just Boulder.  

            In 2010 Boulder Dem % 49.2;

            In 2014 Boulder Dem % 46.3

            Dems down 2.9% in Boulder.

        1. Hey WIF – we all know how you trolls play the game.  If you go to the RCP Senate map page the one that comes up is the one with their own self-described assessment, which is today, "10" toss-ups.  For those like you who want to create your own reality, you click on "Create Your Map" in the lower left-had corner, you then click the  "No Toss ups" box  and presto! – your new magic map appears for the uninformed:

          1. …..

            DENVER — Colorado has been notoriously difficult for national pollsters in recent election cycles because of a tendency to underestimate the number of Hispanic voters who ultimately cast ballots.

            Looking to get a better understanding of Hispanic turnout with six days to go in the 2014 election, Colorado pollster Kevin Ingham conducted a survey that over-samples Hispanic voters, interviewing them in both English and Spanish, and then weighted them in equal measure to other groups in the final analysis.

            The upshot: Democratic Sen. Mark Udall leads Republican Congressman Cory Gardner by a 45-44 percent margin.

            Overall, Hispanics account for just 10 percent of the 604 likely voters surveyed by Ingham, who works for the progressive-leaning Strategies 360; and Udall is winning 58 percent of Hispanic voters to Gardner’s 26 percent (white voters support Gardner by a 47-43 percent margin).

            “This race at this point is a total turnout game,” Ingham said. “If you look at partisan consolidation, Republicans are backing their candidate, Democrats are backing their candidate — and Republicans are energized this year. The question in the closing days is: will Democrats turn out? Will Hispanics and young people turn out?”

            The gender gap is pronounced: Udall has a 17-point edge with women, but Gardner enjoys a 17 percent advantage with men (and a 23 percent edge with white men).

            Udall has also consolidated unaffiliated Colorado voters, holding a 48-37 percent lead over Gardner.

             

            😉

             

             

            1. This suggests to the contrary, per the Washington Post:

              This number jumped out at me from the new Washington Post/ABC News poll: It showed that, among Latinos, 50 percent say it doesn't matter who wins the Senate come November. And among those who do think it will matter, twice as many say it would be a good thing (30 percent) if the GOP took over as say it would be a bad thing (15 percent).

              This is a demographic, we will remind you, that voted 71-27 for President Obama just two years ago. And only 15 percent are concerned about a GOP-controlled Senate.

              http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/28/hispanics-on-a-gop-senate-sure-why-not/

              1. The bottom of the article also cites another questions showing that Latinos see Democrats as being better for the nation over the next few years by 20 points over the GOP.  The survey results really show that no one has any solid faith in either political party anymore.

                 

                Bottom Line:  Everyone expects both political parties to continue to screw things up no matter who's in charge and no one, asides for the party loyalists, has any faith in the political system anymore.  Politicians and there underlings are viewed only slightly better than child molesters and we're probably on the long, slow boat trip down the Ganges.  

  3. With all the back and forth, I'm reminded of a saying from the famous seer, Yogi Berra:  "it ain't over 'til it's over."  See you all on TV next Tuesday night.  

    Regards,  C.H.B.

    1. Amen Brother.  And when it is over the winners should be gracious and the losers should be loyal.  We all live in the same country and want it to prosper.
       

      1. Loyalty by the losers went out the window long ago.  Now it's just about making the winners lives a living hell and ensuring that the country remains ungovernable.  The GOP taught everyone a great lesson six years ago, there's no point in trying to negotiate from a position of weakness.  Instead, you do nothing, refusing to even govern, and just hope you're not in the hot seat when the populace finally gets angry and says, "enough".

         

         

    1. In a Tuesday decision called "outrageous" by one leading voter advocate, Superior Court Judge Christopher Brasher of Fulton County denied a petition demanding that the Georgia secretary of state process 40,000 voter registrations missing from a public database. Alice Ollstein reports:

       

      Though early voting is well underway in the state, Judge Brasher called the lawsuit “premature,” and said it was based on “merely set out suspicions and fears that the [state officials] will fail to carry out their mandatory duties.”

      Angela Aldridge, an organizer with the group 9 to 5 Atlanta Working Women who has been working to register voters for several months, told ThinkProgress she was “furious” when she learned of the outcome: “That impedes people’s rights,” she said. “People need information before they go out to vote and they don’t even know if they’re registered or not. They were discouraged, upset, kind of frazzled, not really knowing what was going on. What can you even say to people who want to vote but possibly can’t? They might get disengaged and say, ‘Why vote? It doesn’t matter.’ It’s really disheartening.”

      http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/28/1339861/-Judge-offers-BS-reasons-for-refusing-to-rule-on-40-000-missing-voter-registrations-in-Georgia#

  4. Funny that the Denver Post criticized Udall for his "single-issue" campaign. Making abortion illegal turns women into second-class citizens, and, aside from that, gives the lie to Repugs claiming to be against "big government". 

    (Rather like Reagan, who promised "limited federal government, in order to get white segregationists in the South to turn Repug, and made the largest successful assault against the Constitution in U.S, history, with the "drug exceptions to the Bill of Rights.) 

    1. Are we shocked that the the two-dimensional red/blue picture that our one-dimensional troll posted yesterday (showing the sea of 'red' that he was so proud of) would nearly match, county-for-county, the dark red counties on the NYT map that have benefited most from Obamacare? 

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