Big Line Updates: Udall, Romanoff Growing Lead

As Election Day gets closer and closer, we'll be updating The Big Line on a weekly basis.

Here's what we're currently thinking as to the main movers in the top races in Colorado:

U.S. SENATE
Mark Udall (65%)
Cory Gardner (35%)

We don't see either Udall or Gov. John Hickelooper losing in November, but for the first time, we have Udall as a slightly bigger favorite in his respective race. Gardner's campaign has been an absolute mess, and national politicos and reporters are coalescing around the idea that Udall is in the driver's seat now.

 

GOVERNOR
John Hickenlooper (60%)
Bob Beauprez (40%)

We have this race tightening a little as Gov. Hickenlooper works his way out of a summer-long campaign funk. For Beauprez, this comes down to a lack of time — too much needs to happen in the next 4-6 weeks for Beauprez to have a realistic shot at knocking off Hickenlooper.
 

ATTORNEY GENERAL, STATE TREASURER, SECRETARY OF STATE
Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton has not had a good month, but he's still favored to beat Democrat Betsy Markey. Meanwhile, we have the AG and SOS races as toss-ups at this point, primarily because it's difficult to determine whether any of the candidates can do much to control their own destiny; the amount of money pouring into the races for Senate, Governor, and CD-6 will make it nigh impossible for lower-tier statewide candidates to get their message out.
 

CD-6 (Aurora-ish)
Andrew Romanoff (55%)
Mike Coffman (45%)

We wrote earlier about our belief that Countdown Coffman is underway following incumbent Rep. Coffman's boorish behavior of late. We've been hearing consistent buzz that Romanoff has nudged ahead as Coffman seeks the momentum he needs to prevent a complete collapse.
 


Check out the full Big Line 2014 or comment below.

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  1. ZappateroZappatero says:

    it'll be good to have that smug "warrior" Coffman out of office. Will Romanoff pull a "Salazar/Markey" or will he be true to himself?

    • BlueCatBlueCat says:

      Being true to himself would be continuing to be a pretty centrist, middle of the road kind of guy. Salazar and Markey actually were pretty true to their pretty conservative selves.  You make it sound like like Salazar moved right after being elected (he didn't) and like you're asking if some kind of progressive hero version of Andrew (never was notably lefty) is going to move to the center.  No need to worry about him moving there. It's where he's always been. That's what makes him a good fit for the new CD6  and far right Coffman a poor one.  You don't even have to look as far back as his record as a legislator to see that. Just look at the ad where he says he's all for a federal balanced budget requirement. Rand Paul could have said the same thing.

      If you're looking for a hard core liberal/progressive, the kind that would never stand a chance in CD6,  you're barking up the wrong tree with Romanoff. I'm looking for an accomplished legislator with whom I agree on a  good deal of the important stuff and who can win.  Centrist Romanoff  works for for me just fine. 

      And, BTW, when Salazar ran for the Senate only a Dem like him could have won state wide. He was part of ending Republican hegemony. Prior to that he stopped a Texas style take over of the state through Republican gerrymandering. He may not be exactly your cup of tea or mine but he played a big part in getting the Colorado Dem Party's ass out of a sling. He deserves credit for that.

      • ZappateroZappatero says:

        Salazar was asked his party, and he wouldn't even say it to an innocuous interviewer. There's video somewhere, and it's shameful.

        They were surely moderates, and I understand their districts are and were volatile, but should have also realized the zen beauty of being simply that. They were so afraid of doing anything they did nearly nothing in office. That is also a shame.

        If you're looking for a hard core liberal/progressive…

        Yes, I am, as a matter of fact. How about just a measly 1 single liberal in the whole state? Is that too much to ask?

        • mamajama55mamajama55 says:

          There's Vic Meyers, who's running for CD4 against Ken Buck. They just had a debate, in which, in my opinion, Meyers cleaned Buck's clock.

          But the Democratic party has given almost no material support to Meyers, even though the seat is winnable this year. We Dems love our party insiders, our own "good old boy/girl networks', and conventional wisdom. Our loss –  literally.

          I'll have some video and blogging up about the debate soon.

        • BlueCatBlueCat says:

          Well Romanoff isn't one. That's all I'm saying. And if he was, he wouldn't be in any position to beat Coffman. I never heard Salazar deny his party which would be be pretty hard to do, having won primaries in it and run with that D next to his name and all and I've seen him at plenty of Dem events supporting plenty of Dem candidates but if you say so?

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