July 22, 2014 01:36 PM UTC

Dueling Obamacare Rulings Likely Headed to Supreme Court

•  
• by: Colorado Pols

As Fox 31 reports:

Two appeals courts reached differing decisions on Obamacare subsidies Tuesday, meaning a likely Supreme Court case on the key component of the health care law.

A three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled 2-1 against the subsidies, while a similar panel of the 4th Circuit down the road in Richmond, Virginia unanimously backed the Obama administration.

The opposing rulings mean the next stop for the issue will almost certainly be the nation’s highest court in a case that represents the best hopes of the 2010 law’s conservative foes to undermine it.

The rulings do not affect the Colorado health insurance exchange, said Connect for Health Colorado spokesman Ben Davis, because the Colorado exchange is run independently.

These cases bring up an interesting political dilemma for Republicans. A Supreme Court ruling on subsidies could significantly weaken the Affordable Care Act's health coverage mandate, which would be the kind of victory that outspoken critics of Obamacare have been clambering to see. However…

New data shows that the number of uninsured Americans has dropped to its lowest level since 2008. While Americans still aren't in love with Obamacare overall, poll numbers have been slowly shifting in favor of the law — especially if you are one of the millions of newly-insured Americans:

According to the latest Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, about 45 percent of Americans still have an unfavorable view of the law (down from 50 percent in January). However, according to the Commonwealth Fund, 58 percent of Americans newly enrolled in Medicaid or private insurance say that they are better off now than they were before the law. Among the newly insured, 78 percent are satisfied to very satisfied with their coverage, including 74 percent of those who identify themselves as Republicans. Sixty percent of the newly covered have already started to use their new insurance, and most enrollees said they could get an appointment within two weeks.

If the Supreme Court rules unfavorably for the Affordable Care Act, Republicans will boast loudly of their efforts to defeat Obamacare…and millions of Americans will want quick answers for what they are supposed to do now. Republicans have no clear alternative for Obamacare, which would leave them with a narrative consisting of little more than, "Hey, we broke it!" How that wins Republicans the Presidency in 2016 — or any other elections, for that matter — is not a question we could even pretend to be able to answer.