CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
August 22, 2013 02:12 PM UTC
18 Comments
"statewide"
In other words, these are 100% useless results. Good to know. Who pays for this stupid waste of money?
The Q-poll, apparently.
NOT useless. Republicans must face voters across the state next year.
Not relevant. In 2014, the voters will have forgotten all about this.
And the Republicans will get routed in 2014, recapturing the House, strengthening the Senate, and the Republicans gets to lose both of their Leaders, Boehner and McConnell.
And more Republicans are slated to lose in the next six years. Massive losses.
Even if these results are correct for the whole state, all this does is show that the Front Range is out of touch with the rest of Colorado. I guarantee if you removed the Denver metro area you'd fine far higher support for the recalls. And in these districts, it's a totally different story.
If Democrats never set foot outrside the RTD counties, they'll never hear the truth of what the people of this state think of them. But there is tremendous anger out there, and it's not going away.
Correct about what statewide polls have to say about particular recall efforts in particular districts. But the fact is that majorities in their districts elected the Dem majority legislature that passed these laws. A majority statewide elected the Governor who refused to veto. That's how the democratic process works.
We'll see how the recalls go. Seems to me that the recalling righties have the most to lose here if things don't go their way. And let's not forget, as colpols reminds us, the failed attempts to get recalls on the ballot, too. If, in addition to the recall elections they couldn't find enough support for in the first place, they don't win both that are going forward, they'll have pretty weak claims about representing the will of the people more than the Dems do.
Once the Recall is done, and it is confirmed the recall election has massively failed, then the State should submit a bill with a deadline of net/30 days or face collection action and a massive lawsuit to remove money from politics.
Your logo is OFFENSIVE
Screw you. I think it is silly.
1+
The issue of statewide polling is far less important that the difficulty of a poll measuring who will bother to turn out for a special election. I'd say the odds of a guy who owns five assault rifles and 20 hundred-round magazines turning out are pretty good. Real people — you know, men and women with jobs, kids, dogs and mortgages to take care of — tend to be distracted. That's why the court ruling taking away a mail ballot is so important. Mail ballots get good turnouts and the pscho-gun nut vote would be swamped by the real people vote. I imagine n3b will find time between his militia meeting and his next cross burning to vote — even more so if he doesn;t live in the district.
+12. And, those are my reasons for concern
And they are very good reasons for concern in these particular recalls. What these recalls will say about 2014 and 2016 when conditions will be different and mail in widely available is a different matter.
Guys/gals, you already know this, but I will remind you anyways. these recalls are likely going to be a low voter turnout. Every vote counts. If you live in Pueblo or El Paso County, please get out and vote and make sure your friends and family members do as well. We need to defeat these NRA extremists.
Re: Quinnipiac Poll
I think that the statewide polling results, while not totally reflective of what's going on in people's heads in Pueblo SD3 and El Paso SD11, give a representative snapshot of it.
Relatively few people are truly dedicated to the idea of a recall. From my informal talks with voters on the phone and at doors, maybe 30% of Pueblo's voting population in SD3, is really pro-recall. Another 60% is against it, and 10% are undecided. That fits pretty well with the Q poll.
Of that 30% pro recall voters, 24% are disabled or elderly/homebound, so the "no mail ballots" rule is going to affect them as much as the anti-recall crowd. Voters can request emergency ballots if they truly need them, but we on the anti-recall side have a much better GOTV operation to reach out to those homebound and disabled voters. I can't speak for how well the Q poll reflects what's happening in the Springs, but it fits what I see in Pueblo pretty well.
Money, money, money
I'm fascinated by campaign finance. If you are less than fascinated, feel free to skip to the end of this post. Pueblo United for Angela committee had $34K on hand at the end of July. Most of it came from small donors, and there were several large contributions from Democratic and liberal 527 groups. The main pro-recall group, Pueblo Freedom and Rights, (PFR) had $10K at the end of June. They don't have to file again until August 27. They are raising from small local donors. The GEORGE RIVERA FOR SENATE – RECALL committee has about $7000 on hand, all raised from small donors. He also has an optimistic senate campaign fund. Richard Anglund has no finance info on file.
Who's paying for the recall in El Paso County?
AFP Colorado has a "John Morse Truth team" , and according to the website, they are calling and canvassing in the Springs, as well as putting out sensational flyers against Morse. They claim to have knocked 3500 doors and made 5000 phone calls as of August 8.
El Paso Freedom Defense Committee had $64K as of July They spent most of that on contracted petition gatherers (Kennedy Enterprises). (they received a non-itemized $10K donation from Basic Freedom Defense Fund, on June 10. Their next financial report is due August 27. "I am Created Equal" and "IACE"seems to no longer be bankrolling the group. However, the group's founder, Laura Carno, is apparently bankrolling a blitz of anti-Morse ads.
I haven't been able to trace transactions from Basic Freedom Defense Fund (BFDF). Jennifer Kerns is listed as a spokesperson for the BFDF. BFDF reportedly is a group funded by the Koch brother's "Americans for Prosperity" PAC, but since the Citizens United decision, these connections are hard to trace. BFDF's websites are down.
If you live in Pueblo district 3, you are likely to hear my dulcet tones, or those of dozens of volunteers like me, asking you to vote "No" on the recall, and telling you where your closest voting locations are.
You are very likely to have a paid or volunteer canvasser knocking at your door, leaving literature, with the same message. You are less likely to be visited or called by a pro-recall canvasser. You are extremely likely to see a blitz of lying and half true ads if you watch TV, particularly KOAA, Fox news.
And you're extremely likely to be heartily tired of the ads and the mailers and the calls and the knocks by September 10. The good news is, as soon as you actually vote, the calls and knocks will stop. So vote as soon as possible, when the polls open September 5, and do your part to relegate recalls to a failed experiment in Colorado voting history.
This started out as a comment and morphed into a diary. I'll probably rework it and post it as a diary.
Thank you, MJ. Well done.
What I find odd about that poll is that while a healthy majority said they oppose gun control measures a huge 82% (you can hardly get that on anything) were for one major provision, expanded background checks, and the approval for magazine size limit was a an even split, 49% for/48% against.
I wonder how the gun control in general question was phrased and if a lot of the people who polled against really had no idea what the gun control measures contain? If the latter, ads should aim at educating the potential voters as to what's actually in the measures, especially including the expanded background checks and the fact that the people behind the recall efforts are adamantly opposed to that wildly popular provision.