October 29, 2007 07:02 PM UTC

Tancredo's Out; What's Next?

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by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE: Rep. David Balmer is already out. He posted a comment below to that effect.

Now that Rep. Tom Tancredo has offically announced his plans to not run for re-election in CD-6, what’s next? Or, more accurately, who is next?

We’ve updated The Big Line, but expect to see a lot of changes in the coming months. Republican voters outnumber Democrats by a 2-to-1 margin in CD-6, which is nearly the same margin as the GOP leads in CD-5. While CD-6 isn’t nearly as naturally conservative as CD-5, it is one of the richest congressional districts in the entire country and the GOP candidate will have a decisive advantage in the general election. This is also a huge GOP prize, because the winner will likely hold the seat for as long as they want (or at least until redistricting).

With no known or obvious Democrats to consider at this point, here’s an early look at the potential candidates on the Republican side:

State Sen. Tom Wiens

State Sen. Ted Harvey
These two are in the top tier, because both have been preparing for a CD-6 run for months. Wiens has more personal money to draw from, but Harvey’s Senate district takes up most of CD-6 already. Harvey is one of the more conservative members of the state legislature and will likely seek to establish himself quickly as the most conservative of the Republican candidates.

Wil Armstrong
Armstrong has been making noise about running for a long time, and if he does, he’ll trade heavily on the name of his father: Former U.S. Sen. Bill Armstrong. But would that be enough to get him through a primary? That probably depends on how many candidates ultimately enter the race; the more the merrier for Armstrong.

Secretary of State Mike Coffman
Coffman really wants to run for something more prestigious than SOS, but he’s in a tough spot here because the State Republican Party really doesn’t want him to leave. Republicans will likely hold onto this seat because of the huge voter registration advantage, so they don’t need Coffman to run. If Coffman did run for CD-6 and won, then he would have to give up his SOS seat…which would promptly be filled by Gov. Bill Ritter, who would select a Democrat as the next SOS. Republicans don’t want to give up one seat for another seat that they should already be able to keep, but ultimately that may not stop Coffman; this is probably too good of an opportunity for him to pass up.

House Minority Leader David Balmer
Balmer would like to move up, but the field may be too crowded for him. Still, don’t discount Balmer’s fundraising ability; if he could get some good financial commitments to run, he might take the leap.

Jane Norton
The former Lt. Governor is always rumored to be running for something, and this would be as good an opportunity as anything.

Aurora Mayor Ed Tauer
Tauer may not live in the district, but that doesn’t really matter (ask Bob Beauprez about that).

Tancredo's Out; What's Next?

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