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February 14, 2007 08:15 AM UTC

Rayburn need wait no longer. Schaffer not running. 5th CD results explain Rayburn's hesitancy.

  • by: DemoGirl

I’ve read the comments in Coloradopols about the article in the Durango paper. http://durangoherald…

As far as I’m concerned, when you read between the lines, what you really see is that Schaffer has written in crayons that he’s NOT running for U.S. Senate, at least not in 2008.  So Rayburn should be pulling the trigger on a Senate run.

But, pray tell, why would Rayburn hesitate in running for the Senate based on what Schaffer does or does not do, when he had no hesitation in running for 5th CD Congressman as, if you will, a carpetbagger?  That is, why would he be suddenly solicitous of Schaffer’s intentions when he had no similar sentiments in the 5th CD?  In my opinion, the answer turns on endorsements from the Club for Grime and the Censured Coalition of Colorado–endorsements Schaffer would, I believe, get in 2008 if he were to run; endorsements that Rayburn would NOT get as a result–and assuring, at best, another lovely 3rd place finish this time, however, in the U.S. Senate Republican primary instead of the 5th CD.

Here’s my take.  On the surface, it may look like Rayburn ran a brilliant campaign coming in 3rd in the 5th CD Republican primary, but, he was beaten as badly by each of Lamborn and Crank, as–sadly–my man Jay was by Lamborn in the general election.  This is like a rookie receiver being given credit for running a brilliant route for a first down–until the wide angle camera reveals that the rookie had no coverage on his pass route and still didn’t score while the other receiver on his team was quadruple teamed.  That doesn’t make a rookie a contender nor a star. 

Fact is, Rayburn was left unscathed in 2006 by the negative campaigning of the Club for Grime and the Censured Coalition of Colorado.  The Sleeze Brothers and Pat Tumor left Rayburn alone in the 5th CD Republican primary.  But, Rayburn did observe the effect they had on Crank and he did observe something else.  He observed this:  http://www.coloradop….  He “saw”–if you will–how Pat Tumor boasted in the Club for Grime’s September 14, 2006 Club Bulletin, “EVERY REPUBLICAN . . . KNOWS WHAT WE DID IN RHODE ISLAND. They realize that Club members donated an incredible $725,000 to . . . (incumbent Republican U.S. Senator) . . . Chafee’s challenger. They know that the Club for Growth PAC spent an additional $515,000, mostly on TV ads, and took . . . (Chafee’s GOP primary) . . . challenger from being down 2 to 1 in the polls to the edge of an upset.” 

My theory is that Rayburn reasoned, as I think many have, that if Schaffer ran, he’d do so with the endorsements of the CCC and the CFG.  Rayburn is not going to get those endorsements in the 5th CD in 2008–those still will be Lamborn’s–but he may get them in a U.S. Senate race but if and only if Schaffer is not running. If Rayburn were to contest Lamborn in the 2008 primary–and regardless if Crank does or not–Rayburn would take the beatings about the head, neck and shoulders that Crank did in 2006–but this time withthe same 3rd place outcome and not looking nearly so rosy in 2008 as he did with his 3rd place finish in 2006.  [Prediction:  in a 3 way race, Crank beats both Lamborn and Rayburn in 5th CD, should Rayburn return to a run in the 5th CD.]  I’ll put it to you another way.  If–and it’s not going to happen–but if the CCC and the CFG suddenly were to announce they’re yanking their endorsements from Lamborn and endorsing Rayburn for Congress in 2008 for the 5th CD, I think Rayburn would be considering the 5th CD!

McInnis looks like he’s made enough missteps and blunders to be the perfect candidate for hose jobs from the CCC and the CFG.  And looking at what the CFG did against Lincoln Chaffee with a 3rd string player in Rhode Island against an incumbent, there is every legitimate reason to think that the CFG (with the CCC’s help too) could do even more against McInnis in a primary for an open seat with the strong negatives McInnis has.  Rayburn is no 3rd string player–more like a highly drafted rookie taken in the first round–and has all the attributes for success against McInnis–so long as he has the CCC’s and the CFG’s endorsements. 

Thus, here’s my reply to the poll that Coloradopols had that included only 3 Republicans:  McInnis, Schaffer, and Rayburn.  Take Schaffer out of the poll.  He’s NOT running.  Recast that poll as between only McInnis and Rayburn, but with the following added.  Assuming Rayburn has the CFG’s and the CCC’s endorsement in a two way race between McInnis and Rayburn, who wins, McInnis or Rayburn?  I put my money on Rayburn.

NOTE:  Like Schaffer, Rayburn would do better with CFG and CCC endorsements for Senate if the CFG and CCC did not endorse anyone in the 5th CD in 2008; but, unlike Schaffer, Rayburn does not have the same kind of stroke as Schaffer would to try to keep the CFG and CCC from endorsing Lamborn in 2008. Voters in the 5th CD do not need to be reminded of the 2006 Lamborn debacle and with Lamborn running again with the CCC and CFG endorsements in 2008, it will have some blowback on whoever the CFG and CCC endorse in the Republican senatorial primary. 


5 thoughts on “Rayburn need wait no longer. Schaffer not running. 5th CD results explain Rayburn’s hesitancy.

  1. I suppose in this case, Crank is probably lobbying the CFG and CCC to endorse Rayburn.  If they did, it would open up the door to suck a lot of the money out of Lamborn’s pockets and give Crank a clear shot at pounding Lamborn all the way from assembly through election. 

    Do you suppose that the CFG and CCC would endorse Rayburn though?  While on the surface it seems like he could be their poster child, I am not sure he fits the bill to be their candidate.  I think of Lamborn as their perfect candidate.  He is a spineless puppet who will do whatever the puppeteers tell him.  Rayburn, while having some faults by being a former General, would never subjugate himself to the wills of any of the characters running those PACs.  Chances are that CCC and CFG know that he will do whatever he feels is right and I dont think either of those groups wants to see a thinker elected. 

    I wonder if Rayburn will try to lobby Crank to stay out of 08 and go after the low hanging fruit of the 5th.  Clearly he would like to be a Senator and perhaps even thinks that Congressman is below him, but that would give him a great platform to launch an uncontested run against Salazar in 2010.  Maybe he does not want to wait that long to run against an incumbent popular Senator, but who knows.

    1. Rayburn would kow-tow to Pat Tumor easily enough, for an endorsement, in my opinion.  These generals rise a lot on merit, and a lot on kissing the rear ends of the guys ahead of them.  Rayburn didn’t rise to chairman of the joint chiefs, but, as far as I’m concernced anyone reaching the rank of general is politically savvy enough on suppressing their wills enough so the guys ahead of them keep promoting them.  [Take a guy like Colonel Fawcett, and you’ve got someone that didn’t kiss ass enough to make general, to his credit.]

      My opinion is that Rayburn’s being willing to schmooze “The Tumor” for an endorsement is demonstrated by his kissing up to Lamborn.  If anyone thinks General Rayburn had any genuine respect for buck private Lamborn, they’ve got another thing coming.  I for one don’t believe it.  But, Lamborn IS the key to Rayburn’s entree to “The Tumor” and the Sleeze Brothers.  If Rayburn would ingratiate himself to someone like Lamborn, I maintain he’s learned enough to do the same for endorsements to beat McInnis.  The lure of being a U.S. Senator is far more appealing than being a Congressman.

      As far as Rayburn asking Crank to step back, that would indeed be cheeky! 

      Rayburn, as a carpet bagger, had as much to do with Lamborn’s winning as anyone else.  Rayburn didn’t bleed votes from Lamborn but from Crank. 

      No.  If Rayburn doesn’t run for Senate in 2008 and he wants to have a political future that springs from the Republican power base in El Paso County, he’ll have to stand down for a run in the 5th CD.  Assuming he doesn’t run for Senate, the smart thing he should do is go to Crank and advise Crank he’s going to throw his support to Crank.  Lamborn is NOT in control in the 5th CD and the smart money recognizes that.  The Sleeze Brothers are out there raising money, no doubt, but, after 2008, if they want a job in 5th CD politics, they’ll have a better chance of getting hired on at the Olympic Training Center with someone like Tanya Harding’s crew–you know, the ones that took a lead pipe to Kerrigan’s knee in 1994. 

  2. The *only* thing that the 5th congressional district primary teaches us is that our electoral system is crap when there are five candidates.  It rewards gamesmanship and chance.  If anyone needs an explanation for Rayburn’s third-place finish, it’s easy: Lamborn and Crank were anointed as, respectively, the “far right” and “moderate” candidates; when Lamborn made an ass of himself, some of the far-right voters went looking for option 2, and they found Rayburn.  This doesn’t mean that Rayburn was the third most desired candidate; it means that this scenario happened, and it’s one that’s not likely to repeat.

    I don’t see Rayburn as too awfully serious a threat to anyone.

    1. The real race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate is the race for whoever can get the Club for Grime’s endorsement–and money.  Schaffer has taken himself out of that race.  I personally think Rayburn is in it. We’ll see how it all plays out.

      So, yes, I also agree that Rayburn’s not a threat–if he’s without the CFG’s endorsement–to win anything on his own, but with the backing of The Tumor and the Sleeze Brothers, a serious threat.  He needs the Tumor more than the Sleeze Brothers.  The Sleeze Brothers can’t raise the coins like the Club for Grime can. 

      1. Well I won’t say all the reasons you are wrong on your entire scenario.  But you have to remember that Scott already has a million in the bank, CFG is good for what maybe $600k at best.  That’s assuming they get involved.  Let’s say they do get involved, and are able to somehow get Bentley to a million, what then?  How does Bentley raise money after that?  Whom does he get endorsements from? 

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