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November 06, 2006 07:54 PM UTC

Absentee and Early Vote Count

  • 18 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

Colorado Confidential takes a look at early and absentee vote returns and breaks the numbers down by key races.

If early voting patterns are any indication (and assuming that a registered Republican is likely to vote for a Republican candidate, etc.), then Democrats Jay Fawcett (CD-5) and Angie Paccione (CD-4) have a lot of ground to make up tomorrow. Targeted House races such as HD-23 and HD-29 will be very close, as expected, while Republicans Dave Owen (HD-50), Bill Berens (HD-33) and Bob Caskey (HD-55) have built up small cushions.

Comments

18 thoughts on “Absentee and Early Vote Count

  1. There’s a big difference between an R turning in a ballot and who that vote is FOR.  D’s in CD4 and 5 must count on cross-over R’s and lots of U’s to win.  So, unless you have a direct line to the computers in the various county clerks (or God), don’t assume that just because someone turned in a ballot doesn’t mean that’s a vote banked for a person from that party! 

    1. To answer your question, that’s why we said “IF you assume that Republicans generally vote for Republican candidates…”

      Obviously there will be crossover, but you can still make some assumptions here.

      1. Since the 70’s, I have never voted for a dem or rep (what is the difference? none that I had seen until recently). 2 years ago, I voted for the first time for a dem (kerry), and this year, I voted mostly straight ticket democrat (could not vote for obrien or suthers). I have been a registered libertarian since 1993. I know of a number of others who are similar (voting out the corruption).

        Hopefully, these democrats will have new and good ideas and work towards honest gov. with balanced budgets.

    1. based on ballots opened regardless of source. The problem is, for example, there are voters who mailed two weeks ago that aren’t on the list and drop offs two daya ago that are. Depends on whether they pulled your ballot off the stack yet or not.

  2. assuming that a registered Republican is likely to vote for a Republican candidate

    Why you you assume that intelligent voters would continue to support these failed leaders again and again and again?

    1. Why would you assume that intelligent voters would support someone with no elected experience and no platform outside of “more veteran’s benefits”?

          1. “Why wid assume intelgut boats would support?!  Hose no lecked export and no splatform outhouse of “more veteran’s been fits”?

            Look.  This is not funny.  Lamborn might be able to craft a tightly worded paragraph but the shortfall on verbal communication skills means he’s not going to be very persuasive in Congress, assuming he goes. If his writing skills are akin to his speaking skills, that gibberish above is not going to be too far off.  We’re in serious trouble if we think Lamborn can be an effective advocate, not with the defective communication skills with which he is, regrettably, burdened. I’m sure he tries.  He is to be pitied.  I have heard time and again from those who support him and those who don’t they are simply embarrassed when they see him on tape or in person presenting a case for anything.  This is not “attack” politics.  Just the truth.

            1. We can have this debate all day, but sorry to say I’m not Dougie. You really don’t have to believe me, but that’s alright because after tomorrow you’ll both be out of job, and I’m guessing your posts will trail off pretty quickly after that.

              Have a good last night.

  3. you’ll make an ass out of you and me,,,,Especially don’t assume this year about how R’s are voting–they can’t all overwhelmingly be counted on to vote R–just look at the polls for Ritter, who is pulling twice as many R’s his way as D’s going BWB’s way.

  4. Republicans have long had the advantage in Absentee balloting over Democrats.  This year I expect it to be much closer, but the Democratic Party still has a long road ahead of it convincing voters to vote Absentee.

    I’d be interested to know where we are compared to 2004 and 2002…

  5. R’s have sent in 1 absentee ballot per 4.8 rv and have 1 outstanding per 9.5 rv

    D’s have sent in 1 absentee ballot per 4.7 rv and have 1 outstanding per 9.4 rv

    Really a slim margin, and if you take the 2.5/3 percent typical R advantage in absentee voting that seems about right in this case as well.

  6. This election is so unusual in so many ways that the real answer is we don’t know squat.

    My prediciton is we are going to be up real late as several races are going to be close. And that we will have lots of counting delays as the “new improved computerized” counting will continue to take longer and cost more than the old way.

    – dave

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