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March 14, 2024 12:15 AM UTC

Thursday Open Thread

  • by: Colorado Pols

“Genuine dialogue, not rhetorical bomb-throwing, leads to progress.”

–Mark Udall


26 thoughts on “Thursday Open Thread

  1. Trump has a LOT of negatives. Marcy Wheeler at EmptyWheel.

    Don't count on Jack Smith saving us. Trump needs to lose the election and lose big. He has so many negatives, it's like picking apples, or maybe rotten apples out of a barell what-the-metaphor.

    Here's the intro from Marcy's article:

    Simon Rosenberg didn’t panic about a 2022 Red Wave. As analysts everywhere were wailing that the Sky Was Falling, he was quietly confident.

    Keep that in mind as you listen to this conversation he had with Greg Sargent. I have about the same cautious optimism as Rosenberg (I was less confident than he was in 2022) on this year’s election, but he’s a pro who works from fundamentals, not just last week’s poll results.

    Among other things, he talks about how any of six big negatives for Trump could blow the election for him:

    1. He raped E. Jean Carroll in a department store dressing room
    2. He oversaw one of the largest frauds in America history and that he and Rudy Giuliani through all their various misdeeds own over $700M dollars
    3. He stole American secrets, lied to the FBI about it, and shared these secrets with other people
    4. He led an insurrection against the United States
    5. He and his family have corruptly taken billions from foreign governments
    6. He is singularly responsible for ending Roe and stripping the rights and freedoms away from more than half the population

    I would add two more: First, Trump routinely defrauds MAGAt supporters. Over the last week, he turned the RNC into a means to do so on a grander scale. Republicans need to hear that they’re being taken to the cleaner by Trump — and by Steve Bannon, whose trial for doing so will also serve as backdrop to this election season.

    1. Yes, Trump has a lot of negatives but what's your point. He's also still running circles around Biden in the six swing states that decide elections.


      1. What’s your point. Biden’s predecessor isn’t anywhere near as effective or coherent as he was in 2016. Biden always overperforms going back to when he ran for a town council seat. Biden’s predecessor holding rambling monologues to half empty arenas is not an unbeatable campaign.

        1. My point is that the 45% or so of the electoral who love Trump will eat broken glass and crawl through fire to vote for him whereas the 45% or so who hate Trump may turn out and if they do, then they will vote for Biden or one of the other candidates on the ballot.

          There are many of us who never voted for Trjump in the past and never will in the future. It's not like we were thinking of voting for Trump and but now plan to vote for Biden because of the indictments. The 91 or so felony charges (it's actually a little less than 91 since the Georgia judge dismissed some of the counts in that case) did nothing to make me more likely to vote for Biden. 

          Biden's campaign people need to get a better message out there other than Biden-Isn't-A-Defendant-In-Four-Criminal-Cases.

          He did a good job during the SOTU – not just substance but style. (And frankly, style is more important than substance. He did not look like the dithering old man he will be portrayed as in GOP's campaign advertising.) He basically needs to do what he did last week continuous through Election Day if he wants to win.


          1. I'm skeptical of your statistics LBWPS.

            The Republican Party is national less than a 1/3rd of the electorate and there is a sizeable chunk of the demographic that is anti-Trump. I think you are overstating his support by saying 45% of the voters are locked into him. Then there are the other issues that Republicans suck at like reproductive rights and that is going to peel away some Republican women. Finally they suck so badly at governing that Ken Buck called it quits citing the dysfuntion in the House. Biden's predisessor has a steeper mountain to climb.

            1. Trump received 46.8% of the popular vote in November 2020 when people in this country were dropping like flies from his China Virus Hoax (COVID-19).

              That was a slight improvement over the 46% he got running against Hillary in 2016 sans COVID pandemic.

              1. Trump narrowly WON in 2016 — "107,000 votes in three states effectively decided the election."

                Biden narrowly WON in 2020 — "He won Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin by a total of less than 45,000 votes."

                The census rejuggling won't make a huge amount of difference, but leans Republican [gains: bold Democrat, italic Republican]: "Thirteen states gained or lost electoral votes following the 2020 Census: Texas gained two votes. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon each gained one. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost one."

                270 to Win shows a consensus map with Democrats at 226, Republicans at 235, and 77 Electoral votes among 6 toss-up states:  Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

                I'm optimistic.  If Democrats are able to get people to either consider the economic gains of 2021-2024 or the "social policies" of a Republican majority, I think Biden can win.  If existing court judgments and if criminal trials are happening, I think Democrats get an advantage.  I am even able to hope that Republicans will continue and escalate their revolution, disillusioning the "losers" and increasing the number who will stay home rather than vote in November.


      2. Agreed.  Hilary Clinton ran on the message of "Trump is abominable" and how did that work?  It is important to make that point over and over, but at the same time Biden has to present a clear vision and a plan for implementing how he is going to make things better in the next 4 years for mainstream voters.

        1. Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million, and then people witnessed what 4 long years of Tr*mp was actually like. Abominable was a vast understatement. I agree the Biden campaign cannot just rely on Tr*mp Stinks (hi up there, V) though.

    1. Don't we all miss him! 

      Yes, he ran a re-election campaign as a one-issue candidate but it turned out that he was right about that one issue.

    1. But that's the point, MB. Trump SAYS it and older, average Americans look back on lower gas prices and believe him. Meanwhile, progressive show graphs. You can't defeat longing for the good old days with graphs.

      1. The comment section is rich. The MAGA-leaning quotes are based around the notion we shouldn't be exporting, keeping those resources here and driving the prices down (take THAT, Big OIl!) Why should we be giving those Euro-commies our oil and gas?   I long for 26.9 cent gas at the local stop in Idalia and a 50 cent piece of Sylvia's coconut crème pie … but I digress!  (and I hear you loud and clear) 

          1. Interestingly enough, one of the long-time waitresss at the 26.9 had a son from a black man. Everybody loved Ida.  Art was the first colored student in Idalia (late 70's) and well-accepted.. Like most rural districts now, we have a large Latina population (IIRC it's over 50% in the Yuma School Distict now).  

            The CD-4 economy would collapse without migrant workers. 

            1. The CD-4 economy absolutely would collapse without the work of migrants. 

              But doesn't mean than cogniitve dissonance doesn't allow the MAGA folk to both denounce immigrants and love the cheap labor they provide.

        1. I'm old enough to remember those days of $0.269 gasoline.  Least expensive I remember buying when filling the tank of my parents' car was $0.219.  Halcyon days, pre-Oil Embargo. Cherry-picking the past seems to be a growth industry these days.

          That was also the time of the $1.60 minimum wage, the $1.50 haircut, and $029 McDonald's hamburgers.

    1. UPDATE: reportedly Fat Donnie dropped 30,000 pages of discovery on Bragg’s lap. The Orange Turd really, really doesn’t want this going to trial.

      Cohen made a visit to the office yesterday and Bragg is the one asking for a 30-day review period. I’m guessing this story, like wine, is only going to get better with time. And by better I mean a tighter squeeze on Fat Donnie’s man parts. 

  2. Hobo is sure making the rounds with her victim tour. it will ultimately be the plurality of  Republicans in that will escort you to the door. 

  3. I'm not certain what "spectaculalry" display might happen. 

    And I'm really not sure how a MAGA carpetbagger railing against the "establishment" of Republican politics on the plains will play. 

    Anyone know when the vacancy committee will meet, choose their candidate for the special election, and ring down the curtain on Act 1 of this soap opera?

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