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March 01, 2024 11:34 PM UTC

Weekend Open Thread

  • 17 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“Change your opinions, keep to your principles; change your leaves, keep intact your roots.”

–Victor Hugo

Comments

17 thoughts on “Weekend Open Thread

  1. But a poll one year eleven months ten months nine months eight months before an election is meaningless.

    Voters Doubt Biden’s Leadership and Favor Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds – The New York Times (nytimes.com)

    The problem isn't when the poll was taken. The problem is the trajectory of the polls.

    And I get it. The really weird part is that by any objective measure, the economy is not doing badly. Which once again demonstrates that in politics, it’s perception, not necessarily reality that controls.

    What else is fascinating? If you go down to the cross tabs and look at the gender breakdown, Trump has a 9% lead over Biden among men, but Trump and Biden are tied (46%-46%) among women. So much for anger over Dobbs.

    And if you go further down, when asked whether they think Trump committed serious crimes, 53% said “Yes” while 36% said that he did not. That means that a big chunk of voters believe he committed serious federal crimes but will vote for Trump anyway.

    1. Polls have some ability to show a snapshot of opinion at this time.  But they are a pretty hazy crystal ball for decisions that will be made next fall. From what I know, the best study (comprehensive data, clear methodology, and approving comment in the academic chatter that follows) says polls more than about 70 days out have about the same predictive power as a coin flip. 

      Election polls are 95% confident but only 60% accurate, Berkeley Haas study finds

      Moore and Kotak obtained 1,400 polls conducted ahead of the general elections of 2008, 2012, and 2016, as well as the Democratic presidential primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire from 2008 and 2016 and the Republican primaries in the same states from 2012 and 2016. Because some polls asked about multiple candidates, the sample included results of over 5,000 surveys of how people said they’d vote on particular candidates, as well as the accompanying margins of error.

      Analyzing the polls in seven-day batches, they found a steady decline in accuracy the farther from an election the poll was conducted, with only about half proving to be accurate 10 weeks before an election. This makes sense, since unforeseen events occur—such as former FBI director James Comey announcing an investigation into Clinton’s emails just a week before the 2016 presidential election. Yet most polls, even weeks out, reported the industry standard 95% confidence interval.

      1. A classic Trump con. Just how does one purport the "value" of Truth at $8 billion when this is their reality: 

        By the numbers: Truth Social's parent company, Trump Media & Technology Group, generated a total of $3.38 million in revenue for the first nine months of 2023. It reports a $49 million net loss during the same period, including around $26 million in Q3.

        1. "Just how does one purport the "value" of Truth at $8 billion when this is their reality"

          The same way his 10,000 square-foot apartment is 30,000 square feet.

          1. Just count the elevator shaft … and any "commons area" really belongs to Trump, 'cause his name is on the building.

            And it doesn't make a difference, 'cause nobody really reads or acts on the square footage that is reported.

            /s

        2. I've been amused every time I read of the Trump smokescreen known as "Truth Social."  It causes me to think of

          the old Soviet joke about the two key newspapers: In Pravda (Truth) there is no news (Izvestya) In Izvestya (News) there is no truth (Pravda)

          I'm pretty certain there are investors learning the difference between the value of "Truth Social" and Truth. .

  2. So the con goes on… I have no doubt that when the day comes that Trump meets his maker, the funeral home that handles his burial will have to sue his estate to get paid.

      1. There’s going to have to be 24 hour monitoring of that gravesite. I am sure of that. It’s probably going to be somewhere private where nobody can get to it.

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