October 06, 2023 02:32 PM UTC

Bidenomics is Working, Whether Republicans Like it Or Not

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• by: Colorado Pols

The numbers don’t lie, as The New York Times reports:

In a sign of continued economic stamina, American payrolls grew by 336,000 in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said on Friday.

The increase, almost double what economists had forecast, confirmed the labor market’s vitality and the overall hardiness of an economy facing challenges from a variety of forces.

It was the 33rd consecutive month of job growth, and the increase was the biggest since January. [Pols emphasis]

The unemployment rate, based on a survey of households, was steady at 3.8 percent. It has been below 4 percent for nearly two years, a stretch not achieved since the late 1960s.

“This is an economy on fire,” said Samuel Rines, an economist and the managing director at Corbu, a financial research firm.

Some Democrats have voiced concerns of late that the “Bidenomics” message pushed by the White House isn’t working. Those critics point to polling data showing that Americans are feeling pessimistic about the economy, but they ignore the fact that people are feeling much more confident about the economy than they were two years ago.

Therein lies an interesting conundrum. The “Bidenomics” messaging may not be sinking in with Americans (yet), but it’s tough to argue that the policies aren’t effective. Unemployment has been below 4% for almost two years; as the Times notes above, this hasn’t happened since the late 1960s.

President Biden argues that the “media” is largely to blame for negative opinions about the economy. While the broadly-termed “media” is a convenient foil for many politicians, in this case Biden might be correct. Check out this headline from CNN today:

The arguments made in this CNN story from David Goldman center around inflation rates of 3% (economists think 2% is better, which means we’re pretty close to that ideal) and the possibility that interest rates could be on the rise in the near future. Goldman even undercuts his own arguments in his final paragraph:

We should never cheer a bad job market. But a job market that has remained this healthy for this long really isn’t excellent news for average Americans struggling to pay their bills. Meanwhile, we remain in a “good news is bad news” conundrum that makes most people feel like the US economy is in a bad spot.

“We should never cheer a bad job market,” except…that’s what I’m doing!

Americans may not be feeling great about the state of the economy, but it’s also important to note that this is not particularly unusual. Gallup has been tracking economic confidence for decades; Americans rarely voice much optimism about economic matters:

As Pew Research noted in April, it is generally Republicans who express dismay with the economy, which almost certainly has a lot to do with partisan politics:

Economic ratings are particularly low among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents: Just 10% say economic conditions are excellent or good. By comparison, 28% of Democrats and Democratic leaners rate them positively.

The economy is always a top issue for voters in every public survey, in part because it’s the most obvious thing to mention whenever someone receives a call from a polling outfit. The Biden administration’s messaging on the economy could probably stand to improve, but the good news for Democrats is that the numbers are there to support a better narrative.

It’s always easier to change the words than the numbers.