Tuesday Open Thread

“We make up horrors to help us cope with the real ones.”

–Stephen King

60 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. ParkHill says:

    Stochastic Terrorism from Josh Marshall at TPM

    If you aren't condemning the problem… And then you have "christians" and "conservatives" actively whipping up the hatred as a political strategy.

    The attack is a product of what is sometimes called “stochastic terrorism.” Mass incitement causes individuals to act out with violence. It is cause and effect. But precisely who will act out in this way, when and where is impossible to know. In one definition stochastic terrorism is “to incite random actors to carry out violent or terrorist acts that are statistically predictable but individually unpredictable.”

    The attack comes amidst a broadening moral panic on the right about transgender people which has triggered an intensification of demonization and incitement against LGBT people generally. Over the course of the pandemic years, advocacy for the rights and acceptance of transgender people and non-normative gender expressions generally has been repackaged on the right as a form of pedophilia or sexual exploitation. When you hear the word “grooming” on the right today that is what they are talking about. It has blended into the earlier “Pizzagate” conspiracy theories about Democrats running hidden pedophilia rings with sinister globalist powers.

  2. ParkHill says:

    Change, Change, Chaaange. (Is that a song?)

    Orange County just flipped to the Democrats for the first time since the 1970s.

    Political definitions that were once so permanent are castles made of sand. With the Republicans doubling down on MAGA and Trump, Governor Death Sentence (not to mention anti-Abortion and anti-Gay) Democrats shifted the odds greatly in their favor in 2022. Demographic change continues (dead anti-vaxxers, and young women becoming politically engaged.

    We'll turn CO-03 blue in two years.

    • MichaelBowman says:

      ….and in Arizona: 

      Final vote tally shows Democrats flipping Arizona attorney general's post, though recount awaits

      If Mayes' victory stands up, she'll help make history in another way, too. Axios' Jeremy Duda notes that this will be the first time since 1978 that Arizona Democrats have simultaneously held the offices of governor, secretary of state, and attorney general. This year, all three positions were open, and since the governorship and the attorney general’s post were held by Republicans, Democratic victories in both of those races represent red-to-blue flips.

       

    • JohnInDenver says:

      Registration data from 11-01-2020 3rd District to 11-01-2022 3rd District shows the more likely outcome. [obviously, reapportionment makes direct comparison harder to discern.]

      Democrats — down about 20,000 active voter registrations and over 3% in share, at 23.56%

      Republicans — down almost 15,000 active voter registrations and over 2% in share, at 30.65%

      Unaffiliated — up about 18,000 active voter registrations and up a shade over 5% in share, at 43.95%.

      Two more years of opt-out Unaffiliated registrations, building disgust from the infighting among Republicans, and more people registering for the Presidential primaries and general election — I’d bet on 50% Unaffiliated registration, Boebert losing by 4%, and the district narrowly going to a Republican Presidential candidate (unless it is Trump – he’d lose).

      District won’t be blue — but it will be anti-MAGA.

       

      • davebarnes says:

        I don't see how you can divine any information from registration data in Colorado.
        I am "unaffiliated" because that means that I get to choose which party's primary to participate in.
        It has zero to do with how I will vote in the general.
        I will never vote for a GOPer in the general even if the opposing candidate is a …

        • JohnInDenver says:

          People affiliate or don't for a wide variety of reasons.  Then, they vote for different candidates (or not) for a variety of reasons.   I happen to think indications of voting tend to relate to previous registrations and voting —

          Your mileage may vary.

           

  3. Genghis says:

    I see American Constitution Party (lol) candidate Danielle Neuschwanger, of "Jared Polis is a woman-beating closet het" fame, scored 21,623 votes in the gubernatorial election. That's substantially more votes than the Unity Party candidate, but substantially less than the Lolbertarian. Maybe threatening Kristy Burton Brown with prison over imaginary vote fraud at the GOP state assembly might not have been the best idea of all time.

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