These Election Questions Are Still Awaiting Answers

UPDATE 6:00PM: CD-8 GOP candidate Barb Kirkmeyer concedes secession defeat to Yadira Caraveo.

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Several Colorado races are still waiting to be decided today, including the final margins for control of the State Senate and State House.

Here’s what we’re watching (results current as of 11:42 am):

A clearly nervous Lauren Boebert late Tuesday night.

CONGRESS

Democrat Adam Frisch remains ahead of Republican incumbent Lauren “Q*Bert” Boebert in CO-03.

Democrat Yadira Caraveo is also still leading Republican Barb Kirkmeyer in CO-08.

Remarkably, these two seats could actually play a significant role in deciding whether or not Democrats retain majority control in Congress.

The race in CO-03 has narrowed, but Frisch is still leading Boebert by 2,449 votes (50.4% to 49.6%).

In CO-08, Caraveo is ahead of Kirkmeyer by 3,451 votes (49% to 47%).

We should know more after about 2:00 today, but from what we hear, Democrats crunching the numbers are feeling pretty confident that both Frisch and Caraveo will maintain their leads.

 

STATE SENATE

Democrats will maintain majority control of the Senate — a scenario that was certainly not a foregone conclusion entering Election Day. The question now is about how much Democrats might grow that advantage.

We’re keeping a close eye on SD-3 (Pueblo), SD-11 (Colorado Springs), SD-15 (Fort Collins), and SD-24 (Adams County).

In SD-3, Democrat Nick Hinrichsen has a 2,933-vote lead over Republican Stephen Varela (53% to 47%).

In SD-11, Democrat Tony Exum leads Republican Dennis Hisey by 1,978 votes (51% to 44%).

In SD-24, Democrat Kyle Mullica is ahead of Republican Courtney Potter by 5,043 votes (55% to 43%).

Also noteworthy — and a bit unexpected — is the race in SD-15, where Democrat Janice Marchman is ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Rob Woodward by 2,137 votes (52% to 48%).

If Democrats hold on to leads in these four seats, they will expand their Senate majority from a 21-14 margin to a 23-12 advantage.

 

State Rep. Colin Larson, the man who was to be House Minority Leader

STATE HOUSE

There are several races in the State House that are still undecided. The most interesting to watch are in HD-16 (El Paso County), HD-19 (Northern Colorado), HD-25 (Jefferson County), HD-43 (Douglas County), and HD-50 (Greeley).

Of this group, HD-25 is of particular interest. Incumbent Republican Rep. Colin Larson is currently losing to Democrat Tammy Story by 1,596 votes (51% to 47%). Following the death of former House Minority Leader Hugh McKean, Larson was widely viewed as the person most likely end up as House Minority Leader. Now it looks like he won’t be in the House AT ALL.

HD-19 is another surprise, with Democrat Jennifer Lea Parenti leading incumbent Republican Rep. Dan Woog by 1,639 votes (51% to 46%).

In HD-16, Democrat Stephanie Vigil is leading Republican Dave Donelson by just 737 votes (50% to 47%).

In HD-43, Democrat Bob Marshall is ahead of Republican Kurt Huffman by 823 votes (51% to 49%).

In HD-50, incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Young leads Republican Ryan Gonzalez by 426 votes (50% to 47%).

Democrats already held an unprecedented majority in the State House with a 41-24 margin. Should the above results hold, Democrats will control a beyond-unprecedented 46-19 super majority in the lower chamber. 

By the time the counting is complete, Democrats may well hold a total of 69 of the 100 legislative seats in both chambers combined.

53 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. itlduso says:

    Colorado is a blue state with the following caveat as noted by Axios Denver:

    A cautionary outlook comes from state Democratic Party chair Morgan Carroll. "Republicans haven't had a non-Trump Republican Party to choose from in a while … and if they ran a more normal Republican, I actually think we'd see Republicans win in the state more often," she says.

  2. dustpuppy says:

    Schiff? You mean Frisch?

     
  3. st0ry says:

    I was gonna say the same thing. Maybe they are celebrating with Colorado’s famous produce? 

  4. Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS says:

    Now that they lost with a ticket of panty-waste, milquetoasts (Ganahl, O'Dea, Anderson, Sias and Kellner), the state GOP will need to run a full MAGA slate next time.

    • Genghis says:

      That's possible. The batshit crazies are surely thinking that Loren Hanks and the wife beater couldn't have done any worse.

    • DavidThi808 says:

      I think Ganahl and her crazy hurt them bad down ballot. Governor is the marquee race, even more than Senator. The Republican party has a reputation for crazy (go figure) and having the leading candidate spouting off a different crazy theory each week led, I think, a lot of voters to figure all the Republican candidates were crazy.

    • notaskinnycook says:

      That's pantywaist, L.B. It was a turn-of-the-last-century garment that was an undershirt and underpants in one, like a leotard. They were mostly worn by girls, hence their association with less than thoroughly masculine men or boys. 

       

  5. Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS says:

    Has Moderatus graced us with his presence on this Not-So-Gloomy post-election day?

    • MichaelBowman says:

      I’m guessing it’s hard to log in and offer a cogent thought from a fetal position?  It wasn’t that long ago he was making clear he was going to make Kevin Priola “pay” for his defection.  Maybe he’s making those preparations? Who’s going to tell him Kevin isn’t to blame for the crushing loss yesterday?

  6. DavidThi808 says:

    And so now we wait to see if Democrats win every competitive race.

    Every fucking one.

    Wow!

  7. Pam Bennett says:

    Do stupid stuff to be face of gqp and it does bring national attention. Losing to good Dem and you get national attention too -lots of reports of losing in Washington Post.

  8. Tazistan Jen says:

    "Democrats crunching the numbers are feeling pretty confident that both Frisch and Caraveo will maintain their leads."

    Oooh, tell us more

  9. unnamed says:

    CO-03:

    With 95% reporting:

    Adam Frisch: 50.4% 151,606 votes

    BimBoebert: 49.6% 149,405 votes

    CO-08:

    With 92% Reporting:

    Yadira Caraveo: 48.6% 88,122 votes

    Barbara KirkLiar: 47.5% 86,149 votes

    • Voyageur says:

      Frisch actually gained 201 votes from his 92 pct talley.

      • westslope says:

        And Boobert is under-performing in Mesa County, where she pulled a hair under 61 percent two years ago to 56 percent this time. It shows there are rational Republicans left over here, plus the emergence of a rational bipartisan group called Restore the Balance. Check out its website for a political who's who of Mesa County. Also, Pueblo isn't the Democratic bastion it once was, but the Dems do have Frisch ahead by several thousand votes, about 5,000 so far.

    • JohnInDenver says:

      Sec of State's site:  Last updated: Wednesday, November 9, 2022, 5:07:02 PM (6 minutes ago)

      Fritsch   155,579   50.01%

      Boebert 155,506   49.99%

       

      this will fall into the "your vote really DOES matter" category. Even more than the Iowa district 2 years ago that was under 400 votes.  We will be learning to spell R-E-C-O-U-N-T.

       

      here's hoping that the Txt2Cure ballots and the UOCAVA voters that trickle in between now and Nov 16 lean toward Democrats, since all the MAGA advice was to vote late and vote in person. 

       

      • Dano says:

        I was working in a polling place this election and I can tell you, a good 75% of the voters we got in the last 2 hours of election day (our busiest time) fell into the Txt2cure/provisional categories. Many of them were "new to Colorado" voters with ID requirement issues to resolve. I am happy to say only one was unable to resolve and had to go to provisional in my vote center.

  10. Genghis says:

    CO-3 I understand, but what kind of hick-ass, stump-jumping, hillbilly methods are they using to count in CO-8?

    • unnamed says:

      I get the impression that Adams County has always been slow in counting.

    • JohnInDenver says:

      Counting is a bit more involved than you might know. 

      People were still pulling ballots out of slit envelopes, checking for extraneous marks, signature affidavits and other enclosures, and neatly stacking the ballots when I left Denver Elections at 4:00 pm today.  I understand I may be doing some of that tomorrow when I go back in.

      EVERY valid ballot gets counted.  Ballot problem letters and texts are going out, and people have a week to "cure" validation problems (mostly signatures).  Ballots from the Uniformed and Overseas Citizen Absentees folks will continue to arrive by mail until a week from today, too.  And some ballots went into dropboxes of other counties, and the great exchange among counties has to happen.  18-November (Friday) is the last day for the county clerk to complete verification and counting of provisional ballots for the 2022 General Election.  6-December is the deadline to request Recounts.  15-December is the Last day to complete a recount of the 2022 General Election requested by an interested party. (No later than the 37th day after the election)

       

       

  11. Early Worm says:

    It is my understanding that congressional districts have approximately the same population. Is there a simple explanation for why it appears that 300,000 votes have been counted in CD3, with an estimated 15,000 left, and 180,000 have been counted in CD8, with 15,000 left? Both were competitive races. Why such a difference in participation?

  12. 2Jung2Die says:

    Oof. Just saw Frisch's lead has shrunk to 62 votes. Does anyone know if they just finished tabulating ballots from Mesa?

  13. 2Jung2Die says:

    From Kyle Clark on Twitter, just a minute ago:

    "The Boebert-Frisch race is tied 50-50% but the bulk of ballots yet to be counted, per AP, are in Pitkin County (80% counted, currently Frisch +58, not a typo), Pueblo County (91.6% counted, currently Frisch +9.6), and Garfield County (90% counted, currently Frisch +13.6)."

    But should I trust the media?

  14. st0ry says:

    This is such a nail biter. C’mon Frisch, You can do it!!

  15. Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS says:

    Tucker Carlson is calling for the replacement of the Republican leadership in both the House and Senate for their incompetence in causing what happened yesterday.

  16. Dano says:

    Woo-Hoo!!! for CD8!!! All politics aside, the more compassionate human being won!

  17. Dano says:

    I just finished during my sweep of all 435 congressional races in the nation and CO-3 is the closest of the undecided. By my count (which is different than that used by CNN et al) we are down to 9 races too close to call. Dems have win 8 of them to keep the majority. GOP only needs to win 2.

    It very possible that CO-3, which likely will not be decided until all the UOCAVA, signature cures, and provisionals are counted (by end of next week), will decide the majority. And THEN there is likely a recount.

    Loosen your girdles, ladies. It's still a long ride.

  18. Dano says:

    Oh, and one more thing about the CD3 race. Nearly all of the outstanding uncounted vote at this point is in Pueblo County. This bodes well for Frisch.

    • Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS says:

      Has Bimbobert called the Mesa County Clerk on a recorded phone call asking her or him to find her just 63 more votes?

      Imagine, if Tina Peters were still counting the votes!

  19. Voyageur says:

    Jon Ralston says nevada got a dump of 14 k mail ballots and Masto picked up a net 5 k, lowering her deficit to 18,000.  If she keeps kicking ass like that, she wins.

    Praise the lord and pass the magic mushrooms.

  20. DavidThi808 says:

    Has Heidi or the other statewide republicans conceded yet?

  21. Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS says:

    "Dices are rolling, the knives are out, would be speakers are all about…"

    "Knives are out for Kevin": McCarthy's dream of becoming House speaker just became a nightmare (msn.com)

     

  22. DavidThi808 says:

    Kudos to Kirkmeyer – classy concession.

    • dwyer says:

      I agree, absolutely.  The only gracious comment I have heard  or read from Republicans,  I listen to talk radio and quite frankly, thought it would help Republicans.  Now, I realize how wrong I was. I think voters turned in, stuck in traffic, for local updates and got fed up with hearing all the right wing crap.

      I have my fingers crossed for #3. It is 5 am Thursday and still counting.

      • kwtree says:

        I wish Democrats would run more radio ads, in English and Spanish. The Republicans went all out on "Freedom Radio", and on some Spanish radio stations.

        Every conspiracy theory and Biden-blaming meme got air time. America First Legal ( Stephen Miller's outfit) is behind the ads.

    • Genghis says:

      Yes indeed. Her taking the high road rather than sending lolyers to the Adams County District Court and/or U.S. District Court for the District of Colorado comes as a pleasant surprise.

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