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November 08, 2022 04:30 PM UTC

Midterm Election Day 2022 Open Thread #2

  • 45 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

UPDATE 9:30PM: There is one Republican apparently happy about tonight’s results in Colorado:

—–

UPDATE 9:20PM: Colorado Democrats officially running the table, winning all of the statewide constitutional races. Yadira Caraveo narrowly ahead in Colorado’s new CD-8, and what could be the shocker of the night Adam Frisch is ahead of freshman GOP vortex of trainwreckery Rep. Lauren Boebert.

—–

UPDATE 8:00PM: Seeing the beginnings of a Democratic blowout in Colorado, with the races for U.S. Senate and governor called early in the night:

Numbers are starting to trickle in from the East Coast. Here we go…

Comments

45 thoughts on “Midterm Election Day 2022 Open Thread #2

  1. Yes it’s early with just 30% or so of the vote in. But I’m going to take my joy where I can.

    the Dem is 60/40 in Georgia, NC, and NH!!!

    and Tim Ryan is 70/30 in Ohio with about 5% counted.

    so an early moment of joy.

      1. Jimmy Sengenberger had his car stolen last night at the watch party in Aurora. I certainly don't condone it, but at some point, you just have to wonder if Karma is pointing its middle finger directly at you…

    1. I’m not sure it’s virtue-signaling, Meiner. I’ve read on other political sites that encouraging Republicans to wait until The Day helps crooked election officials flag early Democratic ballots for additional scrutiny without fear of disenfranchising their brethren.

      1. 38% puts Hiedi Heidi about 3% behind Both Way Bob’s abysmal 41% in 2006 against Bill Ritter but comfortably ahead of Dan Maes’ unprecedented 10% finish in 2010.

        Frau Neuschwangler is coming in at 0.40%. Ain’t gonna be the spoiler.

  2. I'm happy to report that Broomfield came through. Bennet – 63%; Petterson – 63%; Polis – 67%; Griswold – 62%; Young – 61%; Weiser – 62%; Plomer – 61%.

    Come on, rest of the state!

  3. I hope I’m wrong about CD8 and CD3, but here are my predictions (not rocket science, just my gut):

    Governor: Polis in a landslide

    Senate: Bennet in not-qute a landslide

    Other statewide electeds: Democratic party

    CD8: Kirkmeyer

    CD3: Boebert

    It is going to be interesting to see how the initiatives/referenda play out. I don’t have a gut feel. Nationwide – me and whiskey are going to be good friends tonight.

  4. I moved out if state last summer but it's still fun to follow.  I love that the Jeffco nutters recycled Faye, Libby and Rozier for another drubbing.

  5. Overall, it looks like Polis is running about five points ahead of Young, the weakest of the top officers (why people think Republicans have an innate knack for Treasuring is beyond me–it reminds of student elections in the 60s and 70s, where it was just assumed that the Student Council Treasurer would be a boy and the Secretary would be a girl).

    Given that Polis is going to win by double digits, our state executive branch appears to be safely in Democratic hands.

    BTW–every day of my commute down I-25, I see big rock/gravel trucks with big Ganahl and O'Dea signs. And Idaho plates. Maybe those two nitwits should have tried running in Idaho.

  6. Trying hard not to get my hopes up that Story is 1,704 votes ahead of Larsen in SD25 with ~75% of the vote counted. Is there a chance of south Jeffco being represented by a Democrat in the state House?!

    Aw damn. Too late. My hopes are up.

  7. MSNBC has called races for Griswold and Weiser. Caraveo narrowly ahead, Sloebert trailing, Petterson up big. Easy wins for Neguse, Degette, Crowe and “Buyer’s Remorse” Buck.

  8. At this point, doesn't look like lots of ticket-splitting in statewide races – SOS, Treasurer, State Board of Ed, and AG are all basically in the same range at about 53-55% D to 43-ish% R.

    1. I agree. People have IMHO prematurely declared Colorado "blue" in the past, but this year's statewide results are hard to refute.

      According to early results on the Clarity site, Democrats are holding an 11-6 advantage in the State Senate races, with seats not up for election having a 12-6 Dem advantage. If this holds, then Democrats pick up two State Senate seats.

      On the State House side, Republicans hold only 19 seats to Democrats' 46 as of 9:30pm, a loss of 5 seats.

      These totals are likely to change, especially with the current Republican disdain for early voting.

       

  9. If I’m reading it all right the Dem has won in all 7 of the competitive state senate races. Some are close but a wins a win!

    wasn’t it just 12 years ago we were a reddish purple state? And now solid blue.

    wow.

    1. Many counties are still counting election day returns at this time. Still, I think Democrats really outperformed in this state this election. My new State Senate district was supposed to be D+8, but the result is currently D+14. All of the statewide executive races were D+10 or better. Just, wow.

      Gilpin County hung on against some pretty vocal complaints about how Democrats handled the county during the pandemic; every Democrat up for election won their seat by not-close margins tonight, and we passed a short-term rental tax. (Taxes have traditionally been tough calls in our libertarian-minded county.)

    2. I recall seeing numeric analysis that showed this would happen.

      Something about older, tend to lean R voters dying and being replaced about 1.5 : 1 by new, young voters.  Also – Colorado economy expanding and attracting more voters from CA than TX or MS.

  10. As midterm elections go, Democrats did pretty well for being the party in power. It looks like the Senate is likely to stay in Democratic hands, at least marginally. The Georgia Senate race is likely to go to a runoff, but preliminary results suggest Democrats defended all of their seats and have at least gained the Pennsylvania seat. Worst case assuming NV and AZ continue to go as they appear to be going is that the Senate remains 50-50. (Best case scenario remains a 52-48 Senate, but 51-49 seems the most likely outcome.) The US House remains a toss-up for control, with Republicans generally gaining newly gerrymandered seats and Democrats picking up a small number of competitive wins (including probably CO-03 and CO-08); most competitive races are turning out to be holds, with very few flips. That is very unlike most midterm elections, where the party out of power has significant gains.

    Colorado's results are the opposite of a midterm failure for Democrats. Republicans at this rate are in danger of having a permanent candidate bench crisis. If the results hold, Democrats are by my calculation one state Senate seat short of holding a supermajority. That's an astounding turnaround from when I entered in to Colorado politics less than 20 years ago.

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