Weekend Open Thread

“The way to love anything is to realize that it may be lost.”

–Gilbert K. Chesterton

66 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. JohnInDenver says:

    Bedfellows make strange politics:  Here's an example from Pennsylvania in a couple of tweets:

    Holly Otterbein @hollyotterbein

    Scoop: Josh Shapiro, the Democrat running for PA governor, has a notable co-host for a fundraiser tonight: Sheryl Bartos — wife of Jeff Bartos, a two-time statewide GOP candidate and, more pointedly, the co-chair of Dr. Oz’s Senate campaign. https://politico.com/newsletters/pl

    Update: Republican Jeff Bartos went to the fundraiser for Dem governor candidate Josh Shapiro yesterday, a source tells me. A person familiar with Bartos’ thinking says “he was proud to support his wife and was there at her request to accompany her.” https://politico.com/newsletters/playbook-pm

     

  2. kwtree says:

    I see that Fetterman is polling higher than Oz in PA, too. It would make America much more greater if every candidate TFG endorsed lost their elections. 

  3. Lauren Boebert is a Worthless POS says:

    Someone needs to ask Pat Robertson if Hurricane Ian is God's revenge on Ron DeSantis for abusing those asylum seekers.  

  4. coloradosane says:

    Just returned from Alamosa, Coffee with Adam meet and greet. Adam was under the weather so his Son, Felix led the meet up.  Great work Felix.

    Fantastic broad based demographic attendance at 0730 am with yard signs distributed and new DEMOCRATIC office opening today in Alamosa. 

    Encouraging.

    Focus was less on Boebert idiocracy and immediate and next steps to re-engage the forgotten rural Coloradoans that want an alternative to lunacy, ineffective GOP promises with little governing, and help for the politically disconnected  hurting across the spectrum of 7 counties across San Luis Valley region.  

    I am encouraged that Adam and team are aligned with other D's running locally to make an impact regardless of results in midterms.  

    Internal polling was 3 points behind Boebert and that new polling was about to be released soon and it looks like things are tightening up.  Common disgust with Boeberts rhetoric vs action vs results are now aligning to get many more conservative but not crazy to vote for Adam Frisch. 

     

     

     

    • MichaelBowman says:

      Thanks for the update. Looks like we’re stuck with Congressman Ben ‘Buyer’s Remorse’ / teach them how to spell R-E-C-A-L-L Kuck for the foreseeable future. 

    • JohnInDenver says:

      Good to hear.

      The steady drumming of Boebert "news" and Adam Frisch stressing what she ISN'T doing and what he could and would do seems to be making this into a race.  Not sure a mid-term, new (and more Republican) district, and Boebert's "out-of-power" incumbency combo will be enough to push Frisch to a win … but if he loses, the work he's putting in ought to, at the very least, justify his being a candidate in 2024.  2 more years of Boebert (especially if she is part of a majority), a larger turn-out in a Presidential year could be a fine set-up for a Democratic win.

  5. DavidThi808 says:

    Would it work to have a TV ad that…

    Let's use O'Dea as an example. A Democratic PAC will generally use his statements on abortion to show he'll vote to outlaw abortion and push voters to Bennet because of that.

    What if instead the ad was "supposedly" aimed at the right wing voters, laying out O'Dea's statements as why they needn't worry, that O'Dea will clearly vote to outlaw abortion once elected. So vote for O'Dea as one more vote to outlaw abortion nationwide.

    While it sounds like an ad to get O'Dea conservative votes, it gets across to pro choice voters as very credible that O'Dea will vote to outlaw abortion.

    Anyways, ever done?

    • JohnInDenver says:

      Long ago and far away, teaching a Political Communication class, I had a reel of ads that included a few on term limits that sound like what you were looking for.  I don't recall the sponsor, but it was an ANTI-term limits group describing their target as a sure vote FOR term limits.  As I recall, it was quite similar to the PRO-term limits advertising… "tell your Representative that 6 terms is enough,"

      In my limited sense of what works, the approach would be too many caroms.  Don't know that it would test any better than using the same budget and campaign space to have the candidate say "I'm for choice and my opponent is going to enable Republicans to limit abortion"

    • dwyer says:

      One of four right wing talk radio stations in Colorado has 45 hours a week of mosely drive time talk.  O'Dea is on for hours each week.  It doesn't cost him a cent.  If you are stuck in traffic coming or going, you turn on the radio to get the latest updates and you get O'Dea or any of the other Republican candidates. Just saying.

  6. DavidThi808 says:

    Do Colorado state legislative candidates get any value from substantial funding? Either directly or through a PAC?

    It seems to me that after the costs of keeping the lights on (website, phone, office, etc.) all they need money for is 2 -3 direct mailers and very targeted digital ads. And with voters being bombarded with elections ads, not sure even 2, much less 3 mailers has much additional impact. Same for digital ads, after a certain volume it's just going to be lost in the noise.

    So… what else is there that costs money? (And please don't say yard signs as those don't accomplish anything.)

    • ParkHill says:

      Name recognition is really important in down-ballot races, including state legislature. That explains the Republican strategy of making outrageous but newsworthy stunts. The more stupid or worst spelled, the easier it is to get notice and press. This has pretty much zero expense.

      Yard signs may make little difference up-ballot, but in local races they are useful if you have no name recognition.

      Micro-targeting is an efficient use of money, and this is an area in which Republicans have spent years building up their databases. Getting emails and whipping up specific demographics explains why they do all the nutty recalls and Dumb-fuckistan petitions,

      The Democratic Party has not invested in brand development and anti-brand advertising. This hurts down-ballot candidates, especially those with low name recognition. As a result, local candidates have no choice but to spend money there.

      • DavidThi808 says:

        My worry is there's so much political advertising from now till the election that it's hard to stand out and get recognized.

        For example I get 2 – 4 text messages/day asking for money and I don't read them, just reply stop to them. The mailers go straight to recycle in the garage and never even make it into the house. Because of the volume.

        So I think it's tricky to figure out how to get attention among all that. And even harder to get across a message that goes to long term memory.

        • spaceman2021 says:

          I think that's a good point.  The volume of mailers seems way up this year, but it's such a mix of candidate things and IEC ones that it creates a lot of noise that the "average" voter is likely to just ignore entirely

           

    • 2Jung2Die says:

      I'd say there's a huge difference between tight races and safe seats, and that will probably be reflected in final contribution/expenditure numbers. If it's tightly contested I think a candidate would be crazy not to bombard, even though bombarding sucks if you're the type that gets sick of politics. Some really contested races might need TV or radio (radio matters a bit outside the metro). Paid non-social media ads could run a few grand. Sorry, I'd put up yard signs – not the be-all or end-all but sometimes you just need name recognition. If it's a highly contested race you might want a campaign manager or comms person, paying them for a few months might not be the worst investment.

      On the other hand, for some safe-seat races candidates probably just need to avoid getting caught embezzling.

    • JohnInDenver says:

      The legislators in my bright blue section of Denver don't worry too much about losing their seats … but they put together mail pieces — one at a Dem meeting today said 2 that are going to Dems and known Dem-leaning people, 1 to virtually everyone pledging to listen to everyone and do good constituent service.

      Other spending I know of

      — sponsoring some community events in areas with lower turn-out, urging people to register and vote. 

      — hiring some people to "fill in" where volunteers are not available to do literature drops.

       

  7. Gilpin Guy says:

    Fall is late coming to the high country.  Looks like aspen won't be fully turned until next weekend.  Right now it's around 50%.  They got screwed up in the spring with the Memorial Day snows.  I've been told that the water in the cells of the budding leaves froze which is a bad thing.

    • NOV GOP meltdown says:

      I took my fam to visit the huge aspen grove about 5 miles north on 72 from Nederland this past Saturday.  Just south of the road to Rainbow Lakes. Some of the aspens were golden but most were still green. Next weekend should be just about perfect to see them in their full glory.

  8. Genghis says:

    RIP Pharoah Sanders.

    • 2Jung2Die says:

      Thanks for posting this, Genghis! I'm not deeply familiar with his career but always appreciative of what I've heard. Turned to the NYT story on his passing and had to share one passage, for those who are judgmental or feeling sorry for themselves:

      At times in his early New York years he was homeless and lived by selling his blood.

  9. ParkHill says:

    Arizona comes into play!

    Arizona Judge Reinstates Strict Abortion Ban From 1864

    A 15-week abortion ban passed this year will take effect on Saturday. But the attorney general has argued that the near-total ban from the 19th century should take precedence.

    When miscarriages are felonies… (What's the difference between a miscarriage and an abortion?)

  10. MichaelBowman says:

    Just now: Rep. Liz Cheney says the Jan. 6 Committee has obtained 800,000 US Secret Service communications from on or around Jan. 6. She says some texts are “gone”, but there are other forms of comms. Also, some agents were not “forthcoming” with the committee. 
     

  11. MichaelBowman says:

    A great clip of Hillary at the Texas Tribune Conference. You’re welcome, PowerfulPrune. 
     

    #NewsDeserts

  12. Powerful Pear says:

    Pray for a government shutdown.

    • MichaelBowman says:

      I’m going to speculate that thinking and praying about such an event is the blue-pill equivalent of the #WhiteProsperityJesus crowd? 

      Nothing but another B-roll opportunity for the Republican drama queens who rarely offer solutions that make mathematical sense to any of our challenges. 

    • ParkHill says:

      Biblical PP: "Like a dog to it's vomit."

    • DawnPatrol says:

      Preposterous Persimmon: Do you ever tire of being bested, one-upped, humiliated and bitch-slapped by others?

      Do you never grow weary of being proven a brazen liar and unrepentant hypocrite, seemingly utterly lacking in common sense, on an embarrassingly routine basis?

      My guess would be no, since you keep coming here for your daily masochistic dose of punishment.

      You probably are a nice guy and a decent sort in 'real' life, and I know you love dogs which always earns respect from me, so I truly don't understand the political Jekyll and Hyde thing online. Why not drop the bizarre, ridiculously stupid party claptrap, the lies, exaggerations and whacked-out conspiracy theories, and engage Polsters on a more honest, genuinely intellectual/logical basis? I know you could if you so chose, and I for one would welcome it.

    • spaceman2021 says:

      What a jackass thing to say

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