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March 11, 2022 11:13 PM UTC

Weekend Open Thread

  • 45 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“Think like a wise man but communicate in the language of the people.”

–William Butler Yeats

Comments

45 thoughts on “Weekend Open Thread

    1. So this codifies or reiterates what the law in Colorado has been since 1967?

      I certainly have no problem with that but did they need to waste 24 hours debating it?

      I realize that the GOP is entitled to a number of hours of debate time and they need to use their share of debate time to fundraise off of the Right-to-Birth community, but why didn’t the Dems simply yield their time and then vote to pass the bill? And since actions speak louder than words, the Dems could run for re-election while proclaiming their support for right to choose.

      Oh, yes, the Dems too need to give nice speeches so that they can hit up the reproductive choice community for money.

      Here’s a suggestion for both sides:  focus your battles in those states where a battle may make a difference.

      After 47 years, Francisco Franco is still dead. And after 55 years, abortion is still legal in Colorado.

      1. You sound like it was 24-hours out of your life?  (I’m guessing it wasn’t) . . .

        . . . at the very least, we can all be thankful that the inebriated Republican House members, their vehicles and along their guns, were all kept off the roads, if only for just one evening.

        1. There is, of course, a bright side to spending time of bills like this.

          It's 24 hours less of time they have trying to raise my taxes.

      2. I'm not going to analyze how much time Ds spent speaking vs. Rs, maybe some poor journalist might, but I'll guarantee it was extremely lopsided. These sessions are recorded and archived, and Ds maybe didn't HAVE to spend time rebuking certain claims but probably should've to make sure some points were countered for the record. 

        1. It is only settled until the Supreme Court rules.  Depending on the ruling, even Colorado's reproductive rights may have been endangered. 

          1. I don't think so. I think the worst that will happen is returning to the way things were pre-Roe. It was left to the states, and Colorado was the first state to permit it in 1967.

        2. I'd guess you already know this cook, but most of it wasn't really a debate. It was more like extended speechifying and message amplification, with next to zero likelihood of anyone changing anybody's mind.

  1. Thoughts on Ukraine today:

    1. Russia seems to be oh so slowly building up for another assault. It's unlikely to be that strong or effective, but it will make some inroads against the Ukrainian army.
    2. The Russian stock market will be closed all next week. I don't think they will be able to re-open until sanctions start to get lifted because opening now when there are only sellers means that China can step in and buy their entire private economy for $1.29.
    3. Kazakhstan has turned down Russia's request for troops and is sending humanitarian supplies to Ukraine. Kazakhstan! This means they no longer view Russia as a force that can threaten them militarily. Not just today, but for the medium future.
    4. Ukraine may not be getting fighter jets (yet). But they clearly will get more advanced anti-aircraft weaponry as an alternative. And of the two, the anti-aircraft is likely more useful.

    My suggestions for today:

    1. Set a target of manufacturing 40,00 Javelins, 80,000 Stingers, etc. this year and feed them to Ukraine as soon as they come off the assembly line.
    2. Bring Ukrainian troops to the U.S. (or Europe) and train them on the Patriot and other advanced U.S. weaponry. Yes it'll take 90 – 180 days for them to be trained. But the war could well still be going then and that then puts our most advanced weaponry into the battle.
    3. Propose a crash program to build: A modern power grid, many more wind and solar panels, and nuclear plants. Sell it not as addressing climate change, sell it as gaining energy independence. (The nuclear part is key both because it's the only thing that can produce enough to replace coal & gas. And it makes it bi-partisan as that is central to the Republican approach to energy independence.)
    4. Write both Senators and your Rep with a simple message – whatever you're doing to help Ukraine, there needs to be more.
  2. David, WAPO sez production capacity for Javelin is 6,500 a year, with current contract for 2100. Hard to see how we’d make 40,000 a year quickly. But by all means, turn em out as fast as we can and ship them to Ukraine.  In return, Ukraine should support efforts in the UN to outlaw the designated hitter rule.

      1. Yes, David, but it took about two years to make that shift.   You need machine tools and workers trained to use them.  Ukraine needs help now, not in 2024.

        Yes, ramp up production.  Big time, with big bundles of cash.

        But divert existing stockpiles from NATO and other friendly countries to buy Ukraine time.
        Two books, A Call to Arms and Freedom’s Forge show how we militarized our economy.
        We outproduced all other belligerents, friend and foe alike, combined — and still increased our standard of living.

  3. While we're at it, maybe Russia would like Alaska back?  Mexico wants Texas back (and then in turn the Aztecs get it all back?)  Apt analogies for the preposterous "territorial claims" theory. 

  4. (Possible) FSB Analyst Translations. Russia has entered Hotel California Situation.

    Some random thoughts discussed in the thread:

     – US set a trap for Russia by sucking them into a fight with Ukraine
     – China's intention to take Taiwan in the Fall is now off the table.
     – High oil prices will be disastrous for China
     – US strategically buying up Venezuelan oil at rock-bottom price, and releasing Iranian oil onto the market
     – Food crop collapse means necessity of food aid (not just bartering for oil) both in Russia and elsewhere in the world (Egypt, India, etc,) 

    1. "You can check out anytime you want, but you can never leave………"

      Seriously, I couldn't wade through the entire thread, including comments. But definitely some interesting thoughts both in the translations and in the comments. I also like that at least the head narrator ("rayne??") isn't taking anything as gospel truth.

    2. I see three potential outcomes for Russia:

      1.  Putin, seeing a humiliating defeat pushes the button before the generals can stop him.

      2.  Putin reigns over a new Weimar Republic, is overthrown, and another dictator takes over like the Fourth Reich

      3.  Putin reigns over a new Weimar Republic, is overthrown, and a Western friendly government tries to reconcile with the world like post war Germany

      If 1) is the outcome — well, so long and thanks for all the fish.

      if 2) is the outcome — China will extract a heavy price to come to their rescue (like the devil's bargains China has made in Africa)

      if 3) is the outcome — US and EU would need to negotiate a new Marshall Plan in exchange for denuclearization (and possibly demilitarization) by Russia, leaving the US and China as the major superpowers, with EU as a backstop

      I'm betting on #2, and Russia will be in the clutches of a Payday lender for decades to come.

      1. I'm thinking in terms of off-ramps; for Russia and for Putin.

        There are numerous bad outcomes. What are the possible OK or "good-ish" outcomes? China brokering a soft landing might be one of the good-ish ones.

        I've read some stuff about how f-d up Russian society has become. I've been aware of the oligarchs and kleptocracy at the high-level, but I think the mafia mentality may permeate Russian society down to the lowest levels. Combine that with a suspicious national security State and criminal gangs running everything. (My short experience in Russia was exhilarating, but you start to see petty corruption everywhere. You bribe someone to get the contract to supply the chocolate to the factory; just the cost of doing business.)

        The military is particularly corrupted, as prison gangs extort earnings from soldiers and mercenaries. Young recruits are forced into gay prostitution. Theft and neglect are rampant. Success is punished, and incompetence reward (because a competent military would be a threat to the State).

        1. At this point, any off-ramp that isn't seen as a humiliating defeat for Putin will involve carving up Ukraine.  Not a good message to send to Lithuania, Estonia, et al.  We are meeting with the Chinese next week to let them know that throwing Putin a lifeline before hostilities cease will result in consequences.

          The Biden administration is seeking to lay out for China the consequences of its alignment with Russia and penalties it will incur if it continues or increases its support. Some U.S. officials argue it might be possible to dissuade Beijing from ramping up its assistance to Moscow. Chinese leaders may be content to offer rhetorical support for Moscow and may not want to further enmesh themselves with Mr. Putin by providing military support for the war, those U.S. officials say.

      2. But wouldn't it be better if it's #2 with a few footnotes, the "what comes next" stuff:

        * The U.S. and Europe, united because of Putin's actions, exact sanctions on China and send a clear message that human rights, dignity, and democratic forms of government are top priorities and will drive the politics from now forward. 

        * In other words, a "new world order" is not just a catchy phrase.

         

        Of course, I'd rather see #3 – but China will always be a significant risk to us, in multiple ways.

        1. If we get through this without igniting a wider war, I do think that this has strengthened NATO in particular, but also restored much of the US/EU partnership tarnished by Trump — precisely the opposite result Putin was expecting.

    3. And it seems Russia needs help resupplying their weapons.  One 3 week battle with Ukraine has drained their stockpiles?  Unbelievable!

      Russia Asked China for Military and Economic Aid for Ukraine War, U.S. Officials Say

      The Chinese beancounters need to weigh the profit opportunity of trade with the US and EU with economies worth $40 trillion a year vs. propping up a $1.7 trillion economy that will drain a lot of cash before seeing a significant return on their investment.

      1. I'm not sure this means anything. Russia has been asking for some Chinese assistance since Day One.

        China seems hesitant, especially after noticing the difficulties being experienced by Russia. I think they are astounded by the inadequacy, given the engineering and manufacturing prowess within China. "How could Russia possibly be so absolutely incompetent in execution?".

        1. Russia is already embarrassed by their stumbling drunk performance. That’s why they have shifted their tactics to indiscriminate bombing of civilian structures in an attempt to bring the war to a quick conclusion.  The world is recalibrating their opinions and relationships with Russia.  It isn’t something Putin will overcome any time soon, if ever.

          China has to do a cost/benefit analysis.  They have an $18 trillion economy (but a huge amount of non-performing debt).  I don’t think they will rush to Russia’s defense.  Rather, they will let Russia exhaust itself until the very last minute as Putin stares into the abyss.  China probably doesn’t want a wider war either — bad for business.

          I really believe there will be a post-Ukrainian War collapse of the Russian state.  It’s just a matter of who picks up the pieces.

  5. Best wishes for Barack Obama’s recovery from Covid19. Another example of how someone vaccinated and boosted may still get infected, but unlikely to become very sick or hospitalizd.

     

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