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December 28, 2011 10:00 PM UTC

Who Will Win the Iowa Caucus?

  • by: Colorado Pols

With the Iowa Caucus less than a week away now (January 3rd), is Rep. Ron Paul really the frontrunner to win “The Hawkeye State” and take the first state for the Republican Presidential field? MSNBC’s First Read takes a look at the all-out brawl underway:

We saw Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum blast Ron Paul, with Gingrich even saying that he wouldn’t vote for Paul if he becomes the GOP nominee. Text messages sent to Iowa Republicans questioned Mitt Romney’s anti-abortion bona fides, according to NBC’s Alex Moe. Romney, as NBC’s Jo Ling Kent reported, compared Gingrich’s inability to get on Virginia’s ballot to “Lucille Ball and the chocolate factory,” even as he focused most of his fire on President Obama. And late last night, we learned that a new pro-Gingrich Super PAC, Strong America Now, has sent direct mail pieces to Iowa Republicans calling Romney “the second-most dangerous man in America.”

What say you, Polsters? Cast your vote after the jump. Remember, as always, we want to know who you believe will win on Tuesday, not who you support or who you wish to see victorious.

Who Will Win the Iowa Caucus?

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41 thoughts on “Who Will Win the Iowa Caucus?

  1. in polls with Romney the close second so I don’t think it much matters whether or not Paul squeaks by with the win.  If he does, he’s just another Iowa GOP caucus winner who won’t go on to win the nomination and, for Romney, coming in a close second will be just fine. Absent some Deus ex machina last minute rescuer dropping down from on high, complete with fully formed and deployed organization and capable of soaking up every spare dollar still available, Mittens is the only possibility left for 2012.

    If Romney squeaks by instead, it doesn’t hurt Paul’s chances which are already non-existent. Either way, a very strong showing from Paul will only be significant in showing that Iowa’s Republican caucus goers don’t mind the hate and fear mongering racism that was a regular feature of the newsletter that went out under his name. I think the supposed  importance of the niceness factor with the Iowa base electorate is highly over-rated.

    1. The caucus process tends to cause most of the participants to vote for one of the two leading contenders. And that is basically Romney & not-Romney voters. If Paul is way ahead of all the others on the first show of hands, he’ll then suck up most of the people wanting others.

      1. Paul is a good general “other”. His anti-war, including war on drugs, views may taint him with a big chunk of those who don’t like Romney because he’s not their idea either of a real conservative or a real Christian. That crowd pretty much demands militant jingoism and “Let them smoke pot” isn’t one of their mottos. Probably fine with the race war stuff, though.  

  2. I think it will probably be Romney by a hair but wouldn’t be shocked if it goes the other way, so the 50/50 split (4 votes each and no votes for anyone else) so far seems about right.

  3. still at 10%, barely double digit and showing no movement, even with Perry, I’m surprised he has garnered even one vote in our poll so far.  I’d be interested in hearing from that voter what he or she thinks is going to push Santorum from his lowly position all the way to the top in the short time remaining.

    1. It felt gross writing that….


      A new survey of people likely to attend Iowa’s Republican caucuses indicates that the former House speaker’s support in the Hawkeye State is plunging. And according to a CNN/Time/ORC International Poll, one-time long shot candidate Rick Santorum has more than tripled his support since the beginning of the month.

      1. according to that poll which also puts Romney a little ahead of Paul.  The feeling is Newt’s  loss was Santorum’s gain.  Doesn’t seem like he’s having much, if any, of an effect on Mittens and Paul. Like I said, they have to have something dramatic to fuel the 24 hour news cycle.  Santorum  is a side show. Newt’s done.  Paul never had a chance whether he wins in Iowa or not.  Next…

    2. His surge is coming just in time, as Jones Smith posts. So far my predictions in the Republican primary (including the facts that no Republican would ever actually vote for Bachmann or Cain and the flame-out of Rick Perry) have all come true. Still not sure Santorum will win but I expect him to come in at least second. Ron Paul’s position is illusory: his supporters are mostly people who don’t ordinarily go to the Iowa caucus.

  4. if Repubs used the same system Dems use for the caucus (thresholds/viability, etc…).

    But, since this is more like a regular primary where everyone shows up at the same time, I’ll trust the polls and say Paul wins by 5 with Mittens finishing 2nd.  Newt, Perry, and Santorum should slug it out for a whopping 10% each…

  5. Per, there are predictions of only about 119,000 GOP caucus attendees this year.  By comparison, Barack Obama won the Iowa Dem caucuses in 2008 with about 124,000 votes.  And, there are fewer registered Dems than GOP in Iowa.

    Feeling a little down, GOoPers?

      1. It seems we’ve seen the GOP presidential circus train now for ages.

        I can understand the GOP not wanting it to go on and on, though.  Having to watch your candidates putting out gems like the Canadian tar sands “reducing our dependence on foreign oil” can be painful.

  6. but I think there will be another Huckabee type surprise with Bachmann being the recipient.  Iowa GOP caucus focuses very heavily on social issues and so she will benefit from the last minute surge.  I am thinking something along the lines of 27/24/24/15 with Bachmann/Romney/Paul/Gingrich.  The fourth place finish will be death for Gingrich…

    1. I think you’re right, but the beneficiary will be Santorum, about whom many Iowa caucusgoers don’t know enough to complain about. (They don’t use Google.)

    2. You think the woman that lied & stiffed 2 her straw poll supporters about attending a family reunion has won Iowans’ hearts?

      Yeah, the same woman that warmly reminded fellow Iowans of the favorite hometown hero John Wayne Gacy you think will pull off a stunner?

      I hope you don’t play the horses too often …

    3. Bachmann’s Iowa campaign co-chair just quit yesterday and endorsed Ron Paul.  Bachmann accused Ron Paul of essentially bribing him away from the Bachmann campaign, and now Bachmann’s Iowa political director is defending departing co-chair Kent Sorenson from his own candidate’s allegations.

      You can’t write this into a soap opera, folks.  No-one would believe it.

      1. it’s probably a lie.  That Cheetah (the 1932-34 Cheetah) supposedly died in 1938.  Of course, my source is the Paper that I can’t be bothered to name, so they may be lying, who knows?

        80 is awfully old for a chimp.

        1. the one that died was probably not the original but still lived an extraordinarily long life, maybe close to 75 years while chimps in wild life span can be 30

  7. the ballot of all fifty states as a libertarian in the event that he doesn’t win the GOP nomination, and act as a spoiler, which could cost a Romney nominee Tea Party support.

  8. If Paul’s populist style can translate into caucus attendees in Iowa. He HAS a following even if one half of the following doesn’t know that he would do away with the EPA and the other half doesn’t know that he loves weed.

    But I agree with SXP (not about Santorium, that’s crazy talk) that Paul is not going to appeal to most GOP purists and social conservatives looking for an alternative to Romney.

    But Bachmann’s problems in Iowa have been well stated here. The neo-cons that Newt was once a favorite of are now the old-cons. Perry can’t even maintain enough gravitas to be strongly considered by the Anti Romney crowd. Suddenly, the (short-lived) support for Cain is making sense.

    And maybe SXP isn’t so crazy after all? Nah, I think Paul will have a strong caucus presence. And Romney will hold his own. But I wouldn’t count out a caucus surge to draft “Bill the Cat.”


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