December 28, 2011 06:41 PM UTC

Do Democrats Maintain Control of the Senate?

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• by: Konola

Yesterday Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska announced that he would not run for reelection in 2012. Since he is a Democrat, TV pundits have been announcing the end of Democratic control in the Senate. Nelson was not dependable when it came to voting with his caucus, so my gut reaction was no big loss. Another local pundit cautioned to be careful what you wish for, essentially agreeing with all the pundits.

After reading that blog late last night, I decided the first thing I would do this morning was find out what Nate Silver had to say on the issue. The first thing he said was that polling on Senate seats isn’t robust enough to plug into his model, which was based on baseball models for predicting winners. If it were closer to Election Day, he would be more confident in his predictions.

Bottom Line, Nate Silver agreed with the TV Pundits that Democrats could very well lose the Senate in 2012. In reading his analysis, one race especially stood out for me-Massachusetts.

Elizabeth Warren, champion of the middle class and a Democrat, is running against Scott Brown in Massachusetts for the seat that belonged to Teddy Kennedy for six decades. Silver calls that race a toss-up, but puts it in the Republican column in his final prediction. According to a Reuters poll, which was conducted December 1 – 6, Warren leads Brown 49% to 42%. That is a seven point lead in a poll with a 5.3% margin of error. Given that the lead is outside the margin of error by 1.7 points, I would have placed the win in the Democrat’s column.

Unlike Nate Silver, I didn’t consider every other Senate candidate poll or the trends on a state by state basis in coming to my optimistic conclusion, but I’m predicting that, thanks to Elizabeth Warren, the Democrats will neutralize the loss of Nelson.