Big Line Updated

With redistricting in the books and reapportionment soon to be decided, we’ve updated The Big Line. Feel free to tell us how incredibly wrong and stupid we are for giving [INSERT NAME], [INSERT ODDS] to [WIN/LOSE] in 2012.

71 Community Comments, Facebook Comments

  1. Shouldn’t DeGette be a 9-1 favorite rather than a 1-9 long-shot?

  2. I haven’t seen much on Pace’s progress in the district, and Tipton has the advantage of incumbency, even if it’s only one term.

  3. Craig says:

    For Miklosi in the 6th too.  Coffman is an incumbent.  He has represented about half the district for four years.  He has run state-wide three times.  He will have money.  He grew up in the other half of the district that he hasn’t represented.  He’s been around forever.  He’s a widely known veteran (which in old Aurora still means something since Lowery and Fitz aren’t that long gone and brought a lot of Vets to old Aurora).  In short, I think Coffman should be listed as at least a 3-1 favorite.

  4. OrangeFree says:

    your odds on CD6 are overly optimistic. Coffman has the apparatus, the party backing and the money lead so far. All Miklosi has, right now, are the more favorable lines.

    Cory Gardner should have even odds. That’s his seat until 2020 if he wants it.  

    CD3 is hard to gauge. They’re not both even, but I bet 3-1 for Tipton, 5-1 for Pace are probably fair numbers.

    CD 1, 2, 5 and 7 look about right as of this moment.

  5. RegisteredRepublican says:

    Talk about looking at this race through rose colored glasses!  

    The 6th CD still has more registered R’s than D’s.  Most registered Hispanic voters are already D’s.  Voters switching from Democrat to Independent far exceed those switching from Republican to Independent.

    Coffman is “old Aurora” having lived there since he was nine years old.  Even his late father has better name ID, in Aurora, than Joe Miklosi does.

    Coffman represented parts of Aurora in the State House and State Senate.  Miklosi never has, and still doesn’t, live in the 6th CD and only represented three precincts of the existing 6th CD.  

    Coffman won Aurora in his close Secretaty of State race in 2006.  He handily won the Aurora precincts, in the current 6th CD, in 2008 and 2010.

    No prominent Democrat, who actually lives in the new 6th CD, is willing to stake their political fortunes on challenging Coffman in 2012.  They are willing to let Miklosi be the sparring partner for Coffman, in 2012, then go for the open seat in 2014, when Coffman takes on Udall.

    Big money will not flow to Miklosi because “the powers to be” are not going to pour money into a losing effort during a presidential year.  Miklosi cannot possibly compete with Coffman financially, nor is he as an effective a campaigner as the incumbent has proven, repeatedly, to be.  Coffman has a bigger war chest than Miklosi and is capable of raising more money, and more quickly, than his Denver opponent.  

    Despite the kind words of support from Democratic elected officials for Miklosi, Democratic leaders are now trying to recruit Brandon Shaffer — another non-resident of the 6th CD — to run against Coffman.

    Yet your line thinks Miklosi, who precious few Aurora residents even know, is going to beat a popular incumbent?  Joe Coors, Jr. has a better shot of beating Ed Permutter!

    • Colorado Pols says:

      Who knew?

      • Craig says:

        The reality is that for years and years the old Aurora cabal (of which I was the youngest member) controlled a lot that went on in this state.  Senate Majority Leader Armstrong, House Speaker Fuhr, Lt.Gov candidate Armstrong and Fuhr, Congressman Armstrong and Coffman, Governor Owens and Ritter, US Senator Armstrong, Treasurer Owens and Coffman, SOS Coffman.  Many of those of us who were the movers and shakers moved long ago (I’ve been in Jeffco for almost 30 years now).  Many more including my mother have died.

        You want to hear about an old Aurora person in metro politics.  My mother was the first woman appointed the the metro sewer district board.  Denver severly underestimated her, because she was a woman and from Aurora.  Well,Denver got handed its ass by my mother when she combined the suburbs together and took over the Board from Denver.  Ask an old-timer from Denver Public works.  Trust me they’ll remember Mary O’Dell.  And this is just but one example of the many old Aurora folks who controlled the levers of power.  Polly Page was PUC commissioner and chairman for years.

        You bet there was an “old Aurora” and we rocked.  We also knew how to have a good time at politics.  Something that is completely lost on the currrent generation of politicians.

        • nancycronk says:

          But the BS about Shaffer is news to me. Miklosi is moving, and looking at houses in Aurora, which is not far from where he lived before. I agree, he needs to live in Aurora for the best access to voters. I told him that tonight when I saw him.

          RR is wrong about most of the Aurora Latinos already being registered as Dems. When I was leading voter reg for MoveOn in the area, we were registering just as many people the last hour of the last day as the first hour of the first day. If we can get national attention on this race, and national $$ for voter reg and GOTV like we had in 08, there are still many more Dems out there. They’re not just Latino — they are also Russian, Asian and Muslim. Central Aurora is very diverse. Hitting the apartments hard is KEY.

    • Gilpin Guy says:

      Clap politely but don’t get dirty.  The Democratic elites giving lukewarm support. Ugh.

      Well at least Coffman is going to have to recognize there are non-Republicans in his district this time and he could have some missteps trying to pretend to be a moderate so the narratives are still vague and undefined.  Six weeks ago Herman Cain commanded the national stage.  Coffman is a better politician obviously but he could slip up.  Underdog has to have help to win.

      • Craig says:

        What Republican in the last 10 years has governed from the middle?  Even one who lost the popular vote for President by 500,000 votes.  The answer is none.  One vote is a mandate for them to ignore the rest of us.  They’re much better at that than the Dems are, believe me.  He won’t recognize the non-

        Republicans.

    • Gilpin Guy says:

      You compete based on solutions and your commitment to a better world.

      I have always been uncomfortable with the “not now” mentality.  “We can’t compete now.  Now is not the right time.  We’ll have to wait for a more opportune time.”

      Dr. Dean had it right.  Compete in every district and in every race.  Run quality candidates who are capable of articulating better ways to address the complex realities we are facing and you will have competitive districts not tomorrow but now.  Now is the best time to bring out your best ideas.  The country needs rational and cooperative leadership.  If Coffman can’t lead then replace him with someone who understands the needs of all of his constituents and has concrete ideas for helping them.

      If nothing else Dems. should push Republicans to spend a lot of money to defend this district.  Obama should campaign in this district and campaign on the need for a better partner in our efforts to rebuild our nation.

    • Half Glass Full says:

      It has Coffman beating Miklosi, not the opposite. 2-3 is better than 3-2.

      As a registered Democrat and CD-6 voter, I will agree with you that Coffman has the odds in his favor for many of the reasons you note. But unlike in elections past, it is no longer just a “liberal pipe dream” that this race could go Democratic. Stay tuned.

  6. MADCO says:

    So much hooey. Too little kablooey.

    but the overall hooey-kablooey factors leads to just one conclusion:

    More cowbell.

  7. John Tzekara says:

    I think it’s all been said above, but all of those are tougher for democrats than the numbers suggest.

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