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December 08, 2011 10:09 PM UTC

Big Line Updated

  • 71 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

With redistricting in the books and reapportionment soon to be decided, we’ve updated The Big Line. Feel free to tell us how incredibly wrong and stupid we are for giving [INSERT NAME], [INSERT ODDS] to [WIN/LOSE] in 2012.

Comments

71 thoughts on “Big Line Updated

    1. But I agree with you — if they’re supposed to be gamblers odds, Degette is the 9-1 favorite.  Gardner 7-3, etc.

      But I guess even under the Pols system, Tipton and Pace stay even.

              1. How ever can I earn your respect? Life just doesn’t seem worth living without your respect, Ralphie. You are, after all, the center of the universe. Oh, please, though I know I am not worthy, I pray you, Lord Ralphie, bestow your blessing upon this lowly mortal!

        1. and I’d like to just say I can’t remember you ever not knowing what you’re talking about even when we don’t agree. Ellis is wearing pretty thin.  

    1. I realize this is a blog that promotes Democrats but those odds are a joke. Shaffer has zero chance of winning this seat. He knows it. His constituents know it. The Republicans know it. Those of us who donated to his campaign and admire him for jumping in before final lines were drawn know it. CD4 is red for at least the next 10 years.

      Can’t we at least pretend to be realistic on this stuff, even if it is just all fun and games?

      And while we’re at it, let’s get real on CD6, too. Those are abnormally optimistic odds on that race. Do we have a chance at a pick off? Yes. But those odds give the impression that this is going to be much easier than most of us on the ground know it will be. It’s equally likely that 2012 will be the year Democrats make enough inroads to actually win this seat back in 2014. Laying the groundwork now with the realization that we may pick up this seat for another cycle.

      However, allow me to end on a high note. I really think your odds on Kevin Lundberg are right on target. 🙂

      1. MotR was apparently assigned the role of reciting the segue to the next page of the script, which will be:

        “Hey, I’ve got an idea, maybe we should ask Shaffer to move over to CD-6! There’ still plenty of time for him to make that decision!”

        1. I have no clue what you are talking about. Sorry, literally no clue what you are referring to. If you are inclined to expand on your random snotty comment, that’d be helpful.  

          1. Please don’t make me read his other comments, I beg you, PR. Just a quick summation would be great because I am clueless as to what he’s alluding to.  

              1. has wandered away from reality. It’s really fun, and he never gets lonely because he can always talk to the voices in his head. But the straight jackets are a bit uncomfortable.

              2. in the land of the frothing insane. He’s been here quite a bit lately–things must be sadly boring and deathly quiet in his homeland.

                But I do have some awesome recipes I’d be happy to share with him, if he’d like to do something constructive for a change, like bake.  

                    1. See, there’s just no getting around it. A number in your name is already assumed to be a version number.

      2. I think Coffman is fucked. I read stories like Jason’s today and I think that is not a man who can be elected in the new CD-6. The independent voters there will break Dem against somebody as hardcore right as Coffman. So I’m not perturbed by that number.

        CD-4 is too optimistic though, agreed. Gardner is 2-8 under this numeric system at best, and there’s no way Joe Coors has as good a shot as Shaffer (rated the same). This will move down as soon as Gardner’s fundraising stays high and Shaffer’s doesn’t (inevitable).

        CD-3 COULD be dead on, or it could be optimistic. I wonder if the story of Tipton’s freshman fuckups has percolated throughout that district. Pace has a lot of work to do, but a lot to work with.

        1. and not a math major. I don’t really get percentages and suck at reading stats.

          I’d moved Shaffer down to a 10% chance. Seriously. And you have no idea how much it depresses me to say that. He has virtually no chance of winning.

          You might be closer on Miklosi than I’m giving you credit for. I just think we have an uphill battle in 6, at least for this go around although I think it’s ours for the taking down the road.  

        2. I don’t know why the percentage idea didn’t fly. I was a sociology major with an English minor, though, so I’m pretty hopeless beyond the most basic, basics. Don’t ask how I got through stats.

      3. don’t get too down on Pols, they’ve always had a hardon for whatever RBI Strategies does/says, and since RBI’s Shaffer’s team, they give Shaffer the benefit of the doubt.  

        (full disclosure, I’m just a shill who’s spittin’ the truth about Front Range politics)

    2. Agree with you on CD3. Waaaaay too optimistic. We have two potential pickups in this cycle and I don’t feel overly optimistic about our chances with either, right now anyway.  

      1. Pace has a lot of work to do. Tipton needs to be shaken off his GOP talking points, because there’s not an original thought underneath. But Pace can’t do it by his own mantra of the Democratic talking points.

        Tipton can be beaten if his hypocrisy can be exposed. For example, bragging about “protecting Medicare” while voting for Ryan’s disaster of a plan. Pace can’t fall into the trap of dueling talking points.

  1. For Miklosi in the 6th too.  Coffman is an incumbent.  He has represented about half the district for four years.  He has run state-wide three times.  He will have money.  He grew up in the other half of the district that he hasn’t represented.  He’s been around forever.  He’s a widely known veteran (which in old Aurora still means something since Lowery and Fitz aren’t that long gone and brought a lot of Vets to old Aurora).  In short, I think Coffman should be listed as at least a 3-1 favorite.

    1. has run himself too far to the right. He has a long, long way to walk himself back to the middle. That race will be a street fight in Aurora.

      The key won’t be Coffman’s incumbency, but rather if the Democratic base in Aurora will be mobilized. OFA and the coordinated campaigns will be doing everything they can to prime the pump for GOTV. The Rs will turn out, but the Ds need to be pushed and dragged to the polls.

  2. your odds on CD6 are overly optimistic. Coffman has the apparatus, the party backing and the money lead so far. All Miklosi has, right now, are the more favorable lines.

    Cory Gardner should have even odds. That’s his seat until 2020 if he wants it.  

    CD3 is hard to gauge. They’re not both even, but I bet 3-1 for Tipton, 5-1 for Pace are probably fair numbers.

    CD 1, 2, 5 and 7 look about right as of this moment.

  3. Talk about looking at this race through rose colored glasses!  

    The 6th CD still has more registered R’s than D’s.  Most registered Hispanic voters are already D’s.  Voters switching from Democrat to Independent far exceed those switching from Republican to Independent.

    Coffman is “old Aurora” having lived there since he was nine years old.  Even his late father has better name ID, in Aurora, than Joe Miklosi does.

    Coffman represented parts of Aurora in the State House and State Senate.  Miklosi never has, and still doesn’t, live in the 6th CD and only represented three precincts of the existing 6th CD.  

    Coffman won Aurora in his close Secretaty of State race in 2006.  He handily won the Aurora precincts, in the current 6th CD, in 2008 and 2010.

    No prominent Democrat, who actually lives in the new 6th CD, is willing to stake their political fortunes on challenging Coffman in 2012.  They are willing to let Miklosi be the sparring partner for Coffman, in 2012, then go for the open seat in 2014, when Coffman takes on Udall.

    Big money will not flow to Miklosi because “the powers to be” are not going to pour money into a losing effort during a presidential year.  Miklosi cannot possibly compete with Coffman financially, nor is he as an effective a campaigner as the incumbent has proven, repeatedly, to be.  Coffman has a bigger war chest than Miklosi and is capable of raising more money, and more quickly, than his Denver opponent.  

    Despite the kind words of support from Democratic elected officials for Miklosi, Democratic leaders are now trying to recruit Brandon Shaffer — another non-resident of the 6th CD — to run against Coffman.

    Yet your line thinks Miklosi, who precious few Aurora residents even know, is going to beat a popular incumbent?  Joe Coors, Jr. has a better shot of beating Ed Permutter!

      1. The reality is that for years and years the old Aurora cabal (of which I was the youngest member) controlled a lot that went on in this state.  Senate Majority Leader Armstrong, House Speaker Fuhr, Lt.Gov candidate Armstrong and Fuhr, Congressman Armstrong and Coffman, Governor Owens and Ritter, US Senator Armstrong, Treasurer Owens and Coffman, SOS Coffman.  Many of those of us who were the movers and shakers moved long ago (I’ve been in Jeffco for almost 30 years now).  Many more including my mother have died.

        You want to hear about an old Aurora person in metro politics.  My mother was the first woman appointed the the metro sewer district board.  Denver severly underestimated her, because she was a woman and from Aurora.  Well,Denver got handed its ass by my mother when she combined the suburbs together and took over the Board from Denver.  Ask an old-timer from Denver Public works.  Trust me they’ll remember Mary O’Dell.  And this is just but one example of the many old Aurora folks who controlled the levers of power.  Polly Page was PUC commissioner and chairman for years.

        You bet there was an “old Aurora” and we rocked.  We also knew how to have a good time at politics.  Something that is completely lost on the currrent generation of politicians.

        1. But the BS about Shaffer is news to me. Miklosi is moving, and looking at houses in Aurora, which is not far from where he lived before. I agree, he needs to live in Aurora for the best access to voters. I told him that tonight when I saw him.

          RR is wrong about most of the Aurora Latinos already being registered as Dems. When I was leading voter reg for MoveOn in the area, we were registering just as many people the last hour of the last day as the first hour of the first day. If we can get national attention on this race, and national $$ for voter reg and GOTV like we had in 08, there are still many more Dems out there. They’re not just Latino — they are also Russian, Asian and Muslim. Central Aurora is very diverse. Hitting the apartments hard is KEY.

    1. Clap politely but don’t get dirty.  The Democratic elites giving lukewarm support. Ugh.

      Well at least Coffman is going to have to recognize there are non-Republicans in his district this time and he could have some missteps trying to pretend to be a moderate so the narratives are still vague and undefined.  Six weeks ago Herman Cain commanded the national stage.  Coffman is a better politician obviously but he could slip up.  Underdog has to have help to win.

      1. What Republican in the last 10 years has governed from the middle?  Even one who lost the popular vote for President by 500,000 votes.  The answer is none.  One vote is a mandate for them to ignore the rest of us.  They’re much better at that than the Dems are, believe me.  He won’t recognize the non-

        Republicans.

        1. responses to my e-mails are any indication, Craig, you are absolutely correct.

          Not that the Dem responses aren’t also canned but not nearly so entirely predictable

    2. You compete based on solutions and your commitment to a better world.

      I have always been uncomfortable with the “not now” mentality.  “We can’t compete now.  Now is not the right time.  We’ll have to wait for a more opportune time.”

      Dr. Dean had it right.  Compete in every district and in every race.  Run quality candidates who are capable of articulating better ways to address the complex realities we are facing and you will have competitive districts not tomorrow but now.  Now is the best time to bring out your best ideas.  The country needs rational and cooperative leadership.  If Coffman can’t lead then replace him with someone who understands the needs of all of his constituents and has concrete ideas for helping them.

      If nothing else Dems. should push Republicans to spend a lot of money to defend this district.  Obama should campaign in this district and campaign on the need for a better partner in our efforts to rebuild our nation.

    3. It has Coffman beating Miklosi, not the opposite. 2-3 is better than 3-2.

      As a registered Democrat and CD-6 voter, I will agree with you that Coffman has the odds in his favor for many of the reasons you note. But unlike in elections past, it is no longer just a “liberal pipe dream” that this race could go Democratic. Stay tuned.

    1. When we were at the 2002 Olympics in Salt Lake City, the Swiss brought over these three foot tall cowbells and it took two people to ring them.  They would be ringing them for every athlete who came down the mountain.  It was a great time to be a spectator.  More cowbell please.

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