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November 01, 2011 03:40 AM UTC

Election Projections?

  • 46 Comments
  • by: glasscup

(Bumped into Tuesday – promoted by Colorado Pols)

So what does everyone think happens tomorrow?

Post your guesses below, bonuses for percentages. Maybe we’ll find some way to figure out who does best or something. I’m just listing the Denver stuff, since that’s all I really know, but feel free to speculate about other stuff (Jeffco board?)



– Initiative 300 (Mandatory Paid Sick Leave)

– Initiative 103 (Taxes for Education Funding)

– 2A (Allow a Deputy Auditor)

– DPS At-Large (Haynes, Deserino, Kilgore, Shumway, some guy)

– DPS District 1 (Rowe vs Sirota)

– DPS District 5 (Jimenez vs. Draper-Carson)

My guesses:

Initiative 300 – goes down. Broad coalition seems to have formed against it. 39% – 61%

Initiative 103 – I think also unfortunately loses. My guess 47% – 53%

2A – Loses 60-40. Personally, can’t see why Gallagher needs a deputy. Maybe if the guy didn’t spend all his time messing with politics he could find the time to do his job himself?

DPS At-large: I bet Happy Haynes gets at least 65% of the vote. She has no real competition in this race. Surprised if anyone else breaks 20%.

DPS District 1: I think Sirota and his angry gang think this is closer than it is and Emily’s chances are better than they are. I was amazed by his op-ed saying he thought his wife’s deep grassroots experience would be enough to carry the day. Really? She moved to the district a year ago and is going up against someone who has been a longtime activist in the district and actually has that support. Anne Rowe is the grassroots activist, and Sirota is a political operative trying to fake it. I’ve never figure out why she is running besides trying to settle scores for her husband and his friends. That, and in a district that has always been reform-friendly (elected Bruce Hoyt by a huge margin), I don’t think there is support for her extreme anti-reform views. I think she loses and Rowe wins 58%-42%

DPS District 5- This race is going to be close, but I think Jimenez loses because of his record. He ran as a reformer but has spent all of his time on the board hanging out with Andrea Merida. He’s opposed a lot of stuff that is supported in his district, like West Denver prep. And then he’s tried to lie about it. Same with SB191. And while he does have support in the district, and has the strengths of being an incumbent, I think ultimately he’s going to lose because he’s turned off a lot of parents who believe in these schools and these reforms. I think his opponent, Jennifer Draper-Carson, has run a pretty good campaign for a first time candidate. Jimenez squeaked by in 2007, and I think because of his opposition to good reforms and good schools, he’s going to lose this time. Draper Carson wins 52-48.

Comments

46 thoughts on “Election Projections?

  1. There’s been virtually no campaigning on it. And what has occurred has been mostly ineffective actions. So it really is left to the voters to decide on their own.

    My  guess is that concerns about education will trump the default no on taxes.

    1. I fear many people are farther down Maslow’s Heirarchy of Needs pyramid and vote out of sheer sruvival mode. Let’s hope for the kids you’re right and I am wrong.  

      1. I know two people who always vote for Republicans that voted yes on 103 because they know the schools need the money.

        Prop 103 meets the two conditions I’ve always felt are the key to passing a tax increase: It’s a small increase from current rates and it can only be used for a specific purpose.  

        1. I also know a Republican who voted yes on 103 while voting no on the DougCo mill levy and bond issues.  I have no idea who will carry the day, but rural conservative voters have experienced the negative impact of budget cuts on their schools up close and personal, so I don’t think that high Republican returns is necessarily predictive of defeat of 103.

    2. But not with R turnout like it is… I keep on hoping that high info voters turn out in this kind of election and most people are voting on school board elections but Im not terribly hopeful.

      They DID get on air and got some new management in the campaign, so I hope to god youre right.

  2. Jeffco School Board:

    Jill Fellman and Lesley Dahlkemper both win fairly handily, in the 54% range for Lesley and a little closer for Jill.

    Arvada City Council at Large:

    Bob Fifer with 57% — nobody seems to know who he’s running against

    Lakewood Mayor:

    Bob Murphy, no percentage guess because I don’t know the race enough.

    Golden City Council:

    Saiorse Chris-Graves, likewise

    103:  

    Hope I’m wrong but I agree with OP here, goes down 47% to 53%

    1. and count out Debbie Stafford. Her campaign fb account hasn’t been updated since Oct. 1st and her campaign isn’t returning phone calls on election day.

    2. if the winner of the Mayor’s race gets more than 25%

      If someone gets more than 50%, I’m declaring Shenanigans.

      With the odd dynamics of the race, there really is no clear favorite. The top three candidates are Frazier (GOP), Hogan (former Dem) and Stafford (former GOP). The Democrats in the area are officially pulling for Stafford, buy many of the traditional Dem supporters have been behind Hogan (most notably the labor groups and Congressman Perlmutter). And then there’s the half-dozen or so other candidates which will each pull 3-10%.

      So it’s really anyone’s game. But a majority victory is extremely unlikely.

        1. Debbie used to be a Republican, and Frasier used to be a Democrat. It was confusing. Dems did not come out for Stafford in a big way, just because she changed parties. I have no idea how Hogan pulled in union support. He is very conservative. I give his marketing folks some credit.

          1. No he didn’t. It was Hogan who was a Democrat, and you’re wrong that he’s very conservative, he lands right down the middle for a suburban pol.

            And the reason Stafford didn’t get Democrats behind her had little to do with her past affiliation and everything to do with her awful campaign that had a feel of desperation to it.

            Yamrick was about as progressive as they come, too, but no one took her seriously.

            To Ali’s question, the reason unions supported Hogan was two-fold. He’s been around forever and earned the support of public employee unions because they know him and trust him. He got the support of big labor because there’s nothing about Hogan that bothers them and everything about Frazier that does, so it was opposition to Frazier almost as much as it was support for Hogan.

  3. -Initiative 300 (Mandatory Paid Sick Leave):

    Goes down in flames.

    – Initiative 103 (Taxes for Education Funding)

    Will be very close. I think it passes though.



    – 2A (Allow a Deputy Auditor)


    No. No one explained why this is needed.

    – DPS At-Large (Haynes, Deserino, Kilgore, Shumway, some guy)

    Haynes

    – DPS District 1 (Rowe vs Sirota)

    Rowe. Sirota doesn’t realize how far behind she is.

    – DPS District 5 (Jimenez vs. Draper-Carson)

    Jimenez

  4. Initiative 300 (Mandatory Paid Sick Leave) – goes down by 10 points

    Initiative 103 (Taxes for Education Funding) – loses by 15-20 points

    2A (Allow a Deputy Auditor) – who knows? probably passes

    DPS At-Large (Haynes, Deserino, Kilgore, Shumway, some guy) – Happy breaks 60%

    DPS District 1 (Rowe vs Sirota) – Rowe by 10 points

    DPS District 5 (Jimenez vs. Draper-Carson) – close race, Jimenez pulls it out in a squeaker

    Aurora mayor – This one’s tough, but I’m predicting Hogan pulls it out. More Sandvall votes than expected.

    Jeffco school board: Fellman and Dahlkemper win

    1. but as for the rest of your predictions, I think they are probably pretty close to accurate. Initiative 300 goes down in flames; 103 the same but I’m hoping by less percentage points.

      DPS races, other than percentages, will go down as you predict, I think. I suck at percentages so not disparaging yours; I’m just not going to embarrass myself with mine. 🙂

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