CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
November 01, 2011 03:40 AM UTC
46 Comments
I’ve talked to only 1 couple who’s voting for it. Everyone else is opposed. (I left it blank.)
The people I talk to seem fairly supportive. I’d predict a narrow victory.
Is that high, low, or normal?
Mesa County was at nearly 41 percent as of 10/28. They got 4000 more in yesterday’s mail, and that doesn’t count what was turned in at Service Centers.
As of 11:00 AM, we were at 51.9 percent.
It’s the people we elect to office in Mesa County and what we decide that often leaves me shaking my head.
54.32 percent.
I predicted that we wouldn’t surpass 2005 (58 percent) but now I’m not so sure.
based on http://www.dailycamera.com/bou…
Wow, that low is incredibly lame.
http://www.dailycamera.com/ene…
There’s been virtually no campaigning on it. And what has occurred has been mostly ineffective actions. So it really is left to the voters to decide on their own.
My guess is that concerns about education will trump the default no on taxes.
I fear many people are farther down Maslow’s Heirarchy of Needs pyramid and vote out of sheer sruvival mode. Let’s hope for the kids you’re right and I am wrong.
I know two people who always vote for Republicans that voted yes on 103 because they know the schools need the money.
Prop 103 meets the two conditions I’ve always felt are the key to passing a tax increase: It’s a small increase from current rates and it can only be used for a specific purpose.
I also know a Republican who voted yes on 103 while voting no on the DougCo mill levy and bond issues. I have no idea who will carry the day, but rural conservative voters have experienced the negative impact of budget cuts on their schools up close and personal, so I don’t think that high Republican returns is necessarily predictive of defeat of 103.
That’s exactly what it’s predictive of.
But not with R turnout like it is… I keep on hoping that high info voters turn out in this kind of election and most people are voting on school board elections but Im not terribly hopeful.
They DID get on air and got some new management in the campaign, so I hope to god youre right.
301 Local Recreation Measure & continuation of Arapahoe County Open Space tax funding. Hope I’m wrong but guessing those go down as well.
Jeffco School Board:
Jill Fellman and Lesley Dahlkemper both win fairly handily, in the 54% range for Lesley and a little closer for Jill.
Arvada City Council at Large:
Bob Fifer with 57% — nobody seems to know who he’s running against
Lakewood Mayor:
Bob Murphy, no percentage guess because I don’t know the race enough.
Golden City Council:
Saiorse Chris-Graves, likewise
103:
Hope I’m wrong but I agree with OP here, goes down 47% to 53%
I think you called the races right. I also think, in terms of DPS, it doesn’t matter at all who wins.
balance of the DPS board is staying the same. I think that JDC loses, Rowe wins and Happy wins by a landslide. Same board as before, right?
Who do you think wins, and will it be a majority or a plurality?
and count out Debbie Stafford. Her campaign fb account hasn’t been updated since Oct. 1st and her campaign isn’t returning phone calls on election day.
I bet whoever wins gets less than 40%.
if the winner of the Mayor’s race gets more than 25%
If someone gets more than 50%, I’m declaring Shenanigans.
With the odd dynamics of the race, there really is no clear favorite. The top three candidates are Frazier (GOP), Hogan (former Dem) and Stafford (former GOP). The Democrats in the area are officially pulling for Stafford, buy many of the traditional Dem supporters have been behind Hogan (most notably the labor groups and Congressman Perlmutter). And then there’s the half-dozen or so other candidates which will each pull 3-10%.
So it’s really anyone’s game. But a majority victory is extremely unlikely.
If you would be so kind to answer –
How did Hogan pull in labor union support, considering he’s a Republican? I thought that would go to Stafford?
Thanks so much for your time!
Debbie used to be a Republican, and Frasier used to be a Democrat. It was confusing. Dems did not come out for Stafford in a big way, just because she changed parties. I have no idea how Hogan pulled in union support. He is very conservative. I give his marketing folks some credit.
No he didn’t. It was Hogan who was a Democrat, and you’re wrong that he’s very conservative, he lands right down the middle for a suburban pol.
And the reason Stafford didn’t get Democrats behind her had little to do with her past affiliation and everything to do with her awful campaign that had a feel of desperation to it.
Yamrick was about as progressive as they come, too, but no one took her seriously.
To Ali’s question, the reason unions supported Hogan was two-fold. He’s been around forever and earned the support of public employee unions because they know him and trust him. He got the support of big labor because there’s nothing about Hogan that bothers them and everything about Frazier that does, so it was opposition to Frazier almost as much as it was support for Hogan.
-Initiative 300 (Mandatory Paid Sick Leave):
Goes down in flames.
– Initiative 103 (Taxes for Education Funding)
Will be very close. I think it passes though.
– 2A (Allow a Deputy Auditor)
No. No one explained why this is needed.
– DPS At-Large (Haynes, Deserino, Kilgore, Shumway, some guy)
Haynes
– DPS District 1 (Rowe vs Sirota)
Rowe. Sirota doesn’t realize how far behind she is.
– DPS District 5 (Jimenez vs. Draper-Carson)
Jimenez
People pay no attention to these “submarine” charter changes and usually vote yes.
that an initiative was on the ballot for giving a deputy for the auditor. I voted for it because, hell, who doesn’t love Dennis Gallagher?
Initiative 300 (Mandatory Paid Sick Leave) – goes down by 10 points
Initiative 103 (Taxes for Education Funding) – loses by 15-20 points
2A (Allow a Deputy Auditor) – who knows? probably passes
DPS At-Large (Haynes, Deserino, Kilgore, Shumway, some guy) – Happy breaks 60%
DPS District 1 (Rowe vs Sirota) – Rowe by 10 points
DPS District 5 (Jimenez vs. Draper-Carson) – close race, Jimenez pulls it out in a squeaker
Aurora mayor – This one’s tough, but I’m predicting Hogan pulls it out. More Sandvall votes than expected.
Jeffco school board: Fellman and Dahlkemper win
but as for the rest of your predictions, I think they are probably pretty close to accurate. Initiative 300 goes down in flames; 103 the same but I’m hoping by less percentage points.
DPS races, other than percentages, will go down as you predict, I think. I suck at percentages so not disparaging yours; I’m just not going to embarrass myself with mine. 🙂
If polls then it’s over. If it’s your gut then there is a teeny tiny chance (although I would never bet against you on this).
An illiterate blind man in Novosibirsk could call that one.
then he’s more informed than half the voters in Denver. But I hope the blind dude is right.
I suppose I get all your money if I predict that 103 wins. Let’s say 55% in favor.
Take the long bet. 1 chance in 3 is my prediction.
Jimenez
Rowe
No on 300
103 loses
Haynes by a landslide
103 – 63% NO
300 passes, great dining options coming to the suburbs soon!
The Dads win in Jeffco.
I think this is a great outcome. I look forward to seeing it.
he does not wear high heels.
It can’t feel good to be wrong on so many races, but he can’t exactly predict a Democratic win.
Thankfully for the children of Jefferson County the Moms are leading in early results.