Colorado's COVID-19 Infection Rate Nears 10%

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by: Colorado Pols

Thanks largely to continued resistance in some communities to getting vaccinated, the COVID-19 positivity rate in Colorado is nearing 10%. Colorado’s COVID-19 rates are increasing even as national infection rates are going down.

The current hospitalization numbers are similar to trends from last winter, but beds are much more scarce this time around. The seven-day average ICU bed use is hovering around 90% or higher.

As of Monday, the state’s 7-day positivity rate is 9.49%, which is up from 8.69%. The highest positivity rate in the state over the past seven days is Yuma County with 24.9% positivity. [Pols emphasis]

Gah!

Meg Wingerter of The Denver Post has more on these terrible trends, which mark the highest infection levels Colorado has seen since last December:

On Friday night, Colorado’s COVID-19 modeling team released a new report warning that if nothing changed, 1,393 people could be hospitalized with the virus by late November.

It took less than three days to exceed that projection.

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment on Monday afternoon reported 283 people had been admitted to hospitals statewide with the virus in the previous 24 hours, pushing the total number of those hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 to 1,394…

…“Things are tight in Colorado, in many areas of the state,” Gov. Jared Polis said at a news conference Monday. “We’re experiencing a peak right now that many other areas of the country experienced a month or two ago. We’re down to less than 100 emergency beds across the state. And there are still kids hospitalized with COVID. As we speak, 25 kids.”

Overall, hospitalizations in Colorado related to COVID-19 are highest in communities with lower vaccination rates — like, say, Yuma County.

As John Ingold reports for The Colorado Sun, these numbers point to a troubling realization: Colorado may not be able to reach so-called “herd immunity.” At all.

When Colorado’s COVID-19 Modeling Group — a team of university researchers from across the state who use mathematical and epidemiological models to forecast the course of the pandemic — last released a report, in mid-September, it estimated that 70% of the state’s population was immune to COVID-19…

…But when the modeling group released a new report late last week, it contained a surprise: Immunity had dropped across Colorado. The new statewide immunity estimate is 62%. And in some counties or regions of the state, only about half of the population is estimated to be immune to COVID-19.

Researchers are learning that immunity to COVID-19 wanes over time, which is why booster vaccinations are being recommended by local and federal authorities. But once again, the bigger problem here is with Coloradans who refuse to get vaccinated:

A study released late last month by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that people who were unvaccinated but had been previously infected by the coronavirus had a more than five-fold greater chance of being hospitalized with COVID-19 than those who were fully vaccinated against the virus but had never been infected. [Pols emphasis] The data came from a network of hospitals across the country and looked at patients who were discharged from the hospital with diagnosis codes for COVID-related symptoms.

While you can get some immunity from COVID-19 after fighting off an infection, the data shows that this protection is nowhere near as effective as getting vaccinated (sorry, Dennis Prager).

13 thoughts on “Colorado’s COVID-19 Infection Rate Nears 10%”

PMan says:

November 9, 2021 at 1:21 pm

…“Things are tight in Colorado, in many areas of the state,” Gov. Jared Polis said at a news conference Monday. “We’re experiencing a peak right now that many other areas of the country experienced a month or two ago. We’re down to less than 100 emergency beds across the state. And there are still kids hospitalized with COVID. As we speak, 25 kids.”

So says the Gov while refusing to issue statewide indoor masking mandates. He is throwing local health officials, and the people, under the bus for political concerns. I would file his actions under the moral cowardice category.

I hope the dems can come up with a better alternative in ’22.

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ParkHill says:

November 9, 2021 at 1:53 pm

Ppositivity rate. Doesn't that mean % of covid tests returned positive? That would be very different from infection rate, % of Coloradoans who are actually infected.

I know statistics is hard, and that the situation is bad, but leave distortions of science to the Republican Party.

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1. kwtree says:
  
  November 9, 2021 at 2:18 pm
  
  Bingo, PH. % positive is positive covid results / total tests given. This is why the former guy used to complain that we needed to stop testing so much. He didn’t like the high rate of positives. Nowadays, even in rural / resistant areas, most schools and businesses that are not requiring vaxxed-up cards are requiring weekly tests in order to participate- so we are testing more.
  
  A high positive rate does correlate with a high infection rate. I’m not sure of the exact mathematical relationship, or howthe CDC calculates it, but infection rate is usually shown as number of cases per 100,000 people. Yuma County’s is 339/100,000, which is dangerously high, but about the same as Jeffco’s. Fremont County, a hotbed of anti-vaxxers, has 758 cases/100,000.
  
  I looked on The CDPHE page yesterday, and found different numbers. Not sure how the differences are calculated.
  
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  1. MartinMark says:
    
    November 9, 2021 at 4:20 pm
    
    'zactly. The change in availability, accuracy, frequency and main reasons for testing are huge variables. to control for.
    
    Just one example, but a year ago, they were only give tests to people in certain circumstances (i.e. sick), now some people get tested weekly.
    
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MartinMark says:

November 9, 2021 at 4:26 pm

I'm a little confused on why were are out of beds compared to December 2020. We are at a 40% lower admissions rates now versus a year ago, and (I would have thought/hoped) we have been building up capacity since then.

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1. JohnInDenver says:
  
  November 9, 2021 at 9:23 pm
  
  MartinMark:
  
  first, the numbers of people in hospital are a bit of a kluge — the state is still dependent on voluntary response of hospitals to the Colorado Hospital Association. The CDPHE site now says, for example "Percent of facilities updating (within 24 hours) 85%"
  
  one main reason for being short of acute care and ICU beds is that hospitals now have patients needing that level of care for medical issues OTHER than COVID. "hospitals are being hit not just by coronavirus hospitalizations but the consequences of people delaying health care during the pandemic."
  
  another: staff shortages, as some have chosen to leave rather than continue dealing with the impacts of the pandemic and others have left for more lucrative jobs as a "traveling" (contract) provider.
  
  and the best reason, to my point of view — people are remaining under care rather than dying. Now that the most elderly hare high vaccination rates, the patients are younger and apparently able to stay alive for greater lengths of time.
  
  For a more coherent explanation … try https://coloradosun.com/2021/11/05/coronavirus-case-surge-hospitalizations-why/
  
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  1. MartinMark says:
    
    November 10, 2021 at 5:32 am
    
    Interesting. Troubling. Thanks for the link.
    
    A friend told me that the wait list for colonoscopies in our mountain region is 8 months.
    
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  2. kwtree says:
    
    November 10, 2021 at 11:23 am
    
    Thanks for making me look up “kluge”, J i D.
    
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Meiner49er says:

November 10, 2021 at 6:28 am

Polis can be as concerned as he wants, but the fact is he allowed this to happen by not risking his political capital to clamp down on anti-mask/anti-vax counties when it mattered last spring.

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1. Duke Cox says:
  
  November 10, 2021 at 6:45 am
  
  That is an important point.
  
  How much have we lost by treating fairly those who seek to cheat us?
  
  The Orange Horde has no morals, standards, or ethical prerogatives of any kind. We should not expect that to change.
  
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2. spaceman2021 says:
  
  November 10, 2021 at 8:18 am
  
  Agreed. His libertarian streak helped the virus immensely
  
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3. Gilpin Guy says:
  
  November 10, 2021 at 9:30 am
  
  Yeah and Biden is to blame for high gas prices. I guess it is the pessimist in me that thinks a statewide mask mandate would have been totally ignored in Douglas County and Rifle. The Machiavellian in me can speculate that Polis didn't issue any state decrees so that Republicans wouldn't have any ammunition against him and the virus would ravage red districts the most.
  
  Here's a novel idea. How about we blame the assholes who turned this health care crisis into a political litmus test? Put the blame where it belongs on the unvaccinated fools who would rather die than work with people outside the cult.
  
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  1. Meiner49er says:
    
    November 10, 2021 at 11:17 am
    
    I'm good with that proposal, too GG. And I agree it would take more than one Governor to do it. But when you play not to lose, you most often end up losing.
    
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