Our friends at “The Fix” outline how Republican businessman Herman Cain may just actually (no, really) have a chance at the GOP nomination for President. On the heels of a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday, “The Fix” plots Cain’s (potential) path to victory:
1. Cain is already top-tier: Cain has surged to 27 percent in a hypothetical national primary ballot test – up from just 5 percent in an August NBC-WSJ poll. His current standing puts him on par with Romney (23 percent) and makes clear that the two men comprise the top tier in the race as of today. That Cain’s rise has been fueled almost entirely by the struggles of Texas Gov. Rick Perry (Cain went up 22 points between August and October, Perry dropped by 22 points over that same period) is a dynamic that suggests Cain is now the conservatives’ choice in the contest.
2. Cain has room to grow: Nearly one in four Republicans (23 percent) in the NBC-WSJ survey didn’t know enough about Cain to offer an opinion on him. Just six percent had no opinion of Romney and 11 percent didn’t know enough about Perry to rate him. That means that Cain – unlike either of his two main opponents – still has a ways to go until he reaches his political ceiling. Combine that with the fact that the people who know Cain really like him (52 percent have a favorable impression,while just 6 percent have a negative one) and there’s clearly room for growth there.
3. Ideology trumps electability: A near-majority (46 percent) of Republicans said the most important thing to them in a presidential nominee was “a candidate who comes closest to your views on issues” while another 33 percent said they valued the “right personal style and strong leadership qualities” in a candidate. Just 20 percent said they preferred a candidate with the best chance to beat President Obama. [Pols emphasis] It’s hard to argue that Cain is positioned anywhere but to the ideological right of Romney, putting him more in line with the average primary voter. And, while it’s somewhat debateable which of the two men have the “right personal style”, Cain is clearly the more charismatic of the duo.
That highlighted part above is just stunning — only 20% of Republicans say they prefer a candidate who has the best chance to defeat President Obama. If Republican voters are really more interested in ideology than electability — which was certainly true in 2010 — then this is great news for Cain…and Obama.
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I wouldn’t hold my breath.
This is a temporary aberration. Romney will be the GOP nominee and next President of the United States.
But I gotta give i to ya- when you are 1/2 right, you are 1/2 right.
for being 50% more right than usual.
in an intellectually lazy, ideologically rigid fact-free conservative universe ArapaGOP is right 100 % of the time. Give the man some credit.
You do owe me $50
That’s Arap that owes you $50.
Check it out. H-man’s last post was Nov 2. Arap appears on Jan 2 and writes/thinks just the same. Some coincidence.
H-man had same opinions but I don’t remember him being quite so stupid.
But they both just mouth talking points. And I think the tone is about the same.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/…
Next up for Cain: a national defense plan led by an Italian plumber with a funky moustache?
I’m not the one calling Herman Cain a viable candidate. I don’t believe that will ever be true, and I believe Pols knows that too. This is particularly silly misdirection.
… because, you know, he changes his core beliefs every few years. At least actual whores are consistent in what they’re selling.
I don’t think we’ve seen a recent election between black and white candidates in a seriously racist constituency, but my guess is that almost all of Cain’s support in the polls will evaporate when the first Republican voter has to actually cast a vote.
The Mormon or the black man. That’ll be fun to watch. I may go back to being an election judge just for the primary, so I can sit and watch all the Republicans’ heads explode.
not sufficiently hating children who, through no fault of there own, were brought here illegally and of recognizing that young people have sex. So now what?
Romney is the candidate of the Republican Establishment, which means money and Washington pundits, but it doesn’t mean votes. The Republican Party and the Koch Bro’s built up two significant voting blocks who don’t tolerate Romney: The Religious Right and The Tea Party lunatics.
Romney doesn’t meet the approval of the the Murdoch empire nor Glenn Beck, much less the Christian Right. He isn’t Christian, and he doesn’t satisfy the Tea Bagger litmus tests, which is why he’s stuck at 20% of the vote.
Either the GOP calls up a new Great White Hope (Irony of ironies!) satisfactory to the extremist-Christians (probably Huckabee), or else the Party splits.
Maybe it is about time for the GOP to split.
We watched the right-wing Christians and Crazies take over the Colorado Republican Party a decade ago, so the national Tea Party movement was no surprise to us in this state. The only way this doesn’t end in total destruction of the Republican Party is if they let the Tea Baggers go the full-Nader, and then cut them loose.
Then, the business establishment could suck in the Lieberdems and Blue Dogs to recreate the traditional, Right-wing-but-not-crazy GOP. That probably means they just have to cut their losses for another presidential season.
He will never be white enough to be a Republican. He will never be a teabagger, way not the right skin color. He can spout all the talking points he wants, but in the end he will be left to walk home on his own.
He will be a front runner as long as the Republican party wants to show they have a black man in the party; to try to match the Dems, who, along with a few million indies, voted for and elected Obama. Cain will never get past a primary.
He is like a super rich Ryan Frasier, but at a different level in the party. Cain can buy much higher than Frasier ever will. As Frasier found out with his Senate run, there is only so much road the Republicans will allow a black man to go on; then it will be time to put the “winner” up there so the voters will stay with the Republicans and not go to the party of Little Tommy Tancredo.
a Cain v. Obama race would be a helluva lot more entertaining than a Romney v. Obama race.
I don’t want to actually deal with the race, but I would love to know how many people in the Bible Belt would actually vote in a black guy vs. black guy presidential election.
if those were their only choices. But it’ll never happen. Cain will fade away, too.
of Republicans say they prefer a candidate who has the best chance to defeat President Obama speaks primarily to their confidence that anybody can beat Obama.
The best thing that could happen for Obama would be for this sentiment to prevail long enough for one of these nuts to wrap up the primary, before they figure out it’s an actual race.
Given that Romney ist stuck in the 20s, the final candidate could be anyone. A brokered convention however, amplifies immensely the power of the Republican establishment and the smokey back rooms.
It also boosts the power of the corporate and lobbyist wing of the Party.
While the Libertarian Koch Bros have funded the tea party movement (complete with intentionally mis-spelled signs to make it look homespun), in the end the big money will hang together.
Brokered Convention May Lead to Graceful GOP Breakup
The Republican Industrial Complex plays to win, but with filibuster power in the Senate, it might accept a 2012 loss in order to push out the Tea Party. This would also be an opportunity to raise the stature a bright new face who could end up being the 2016 candidate.
on CNN w/ Erin Burnett.
OMG What a nudnik! Missile defense v. Iran?
Outer space v. HumInt?
The guy’s below average intelligence with a deluded sense of reality?
He’s a respected candidate for president?
He’s a candidate.
Ask anyone.