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August 07, 2006 09:10 PM UTC

New Survey USA/KUSA CD 7 Poll Out

  • 24 Comments
  • by: ohwilleke

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

9News (KUSA) reports the latest Survey USA poll on the CD 7 race:

Ed Perlmutter 49 (51)
Peggy Lamm 37 (31)
Herb Rubenstein 8 (10)
Undecided 7 (8)

The poll asked 592 likely voters who they would vote for in the Democratic primary set for Tuesday, August 8. It is possible some had already voted early or absentee.

This implies a sampling error of +/-4.1%

Observers had suggested that the previous Survey USA poll was an outlier.  This poll suggests that, from a sampling error perspective that prior poll was correct is showing Perlmutter safely ahead of Lamm.

It does not, address, however, claims that absentee voters and early voters may not give their vote to the robocaller, and hence, not accurately reflect the true vote.

Cross Posted at Colorado Confidential.

Comments

24 thoughts on “New Survey USA/KUSA CD 7 Poll Out

  1.   So since Peggy accused Ed of coddling rapists and child molesters, his ten point lead over her jumped up to 12 points?  Too bad there isn’t time enough for Peggy to do another ad campaign trashing Ed……

  2. Since One Queer Dude is supporting Ed, I feel much better. He can’t add, not sure he would know how to vote either.

    The poll dropped from 20 to 12. Wrong direction…

    1. To quote you directly, ”  Remember that other race going on in CD-07 for the Democratic nomination. I hear there is a poll that has Peggy up 9.”

      Um, looks more like 6 to me.

      Apparently, you also forgot to add Perlmutter was still up by 12. I’m sure it was just an oversight.

  3. Survey USA poll conducted in San Jose right before their mayoral primary this summer.  The poll came out a few days before the election and showed the guy who ended up winning the primary in fourth place.  Over the span of four days, he jumped from 14 percent in the poll to 29 percent and a primary win.

    This poll, like the last one, is probably just as inaccurate. 

    This is a close race.

    1. … it’s good to see that the San Jose example I mentioned last week has been noted.

      I’m sure are plenty of other examples of where Survey USA’s primary samples have turned out to be completely wrong. 

      This seems to be particularly true here because of the heavy reliance on early and absentee voting.  Without screening and accounting for people who have already voted, their sample in this race is inherently flawed. 

      1. I could be wrong, but do you really think the first question of the poll was “have you already voted absentee or participated in early voting?” and if the respondent answered “yes” then the pollster didn’t continue. Is it a traditional practice in polls to exclude people who already voted or voted absentee, and if so how does the poll differentiate?

        I feel like, had I already voted, I would have still contributed to the poll.

    2. The reason for that is that Survey USA adjusts the data in general election surveys to reflect the actual demographics compared to sample demographics. 

      I don’t think that this is what it does in a primary poll, since the data on likely primary voters in CD 7 probably isn’t as good.  But, the cross tabs don’t show much variation among demographics (African-Americans and conservative dems tend to favor Lamm, otherwise, pretty much the results were similar in the last poll), so it doesn’t seem likely that demograpics are a big factor.

      Also, a dramatic change in the post-ad period (when both Survey USA polls were taken) and the pre-ad period (when the Emily’s list and other polls were taken), is to be expected in race like this one where name recognition was a strong factor in favor of Lamm.  TV ads make name recognition a much smaller factor.

  4. Aristotle, I agree with you, so I have listed some quotes that have been running rampant on this blog, that we don’t really need to see anymore.  Feel free to add any other top shill quotes that have been repeated here ad naseum:

    ” Jennifer Mello is a star “

    ” Herb Rubenstein is the only candidate who has been consistently opposed to the war in Iraq”

    ” I’m Bob Beauprez, and I’m tall, and I deserve to win the primary dammit”

    ” Doug Lamborn has godlike qualities “

    etc, etc.

    1. If you mean that it’s apparent by now that Lamborn is essentially a superior being, then I agree with you–it’s probably no longer necessary to tout his wares.

      However, there still seems to be a portion of the population too blind to acknowledge that Doug Lamborn is much much better than regular people. For them, I’ll continue to profess the truth.

      If Jesus were running in CD-5, even He would concede to Lamborn.

    2. I will die happy if I never read or hear the first 3, but “Lamborn Has Godlike Qualities” will always bring a smile to my face, especially when I think of the “grinding to vicory” post. I’d hate it if he won since that’ll mean our state will be represented by yet another nut (sorry, I really don’t think any Dem, even one with Fawcett’s qualifications, can win in CD5), but at least that would mean 3 more months of great posts.

  5. So noted Aristotle et. al. – I concede. Doug Lamborn has transsubstantiated himself from merely possesing godlike qualities to being God himself. 

    1. Okay – that one was funny. But I’m still going to remind everyone that it was the Crank CM that was stalking the Lamborn son for an hour before finally catching him removing, and placing on the ground, an illegally placed sign.

      1. What’s wrong with that? Do you really believe Lamborn’s son did it because the Crank sign was illegally placed? If I were in a campaign and were concerned about where my opponent’s signs were, I’d take pictures of the illegals ones and get them in trouble, not take them down!

  6. We were hit on this survey and told them we will be voting for Rubenstein.  I was undecided at one time in this race and even let the Perlmutter people put up a sign in my yard a few weeks ago.  But after getting all the mail and watching the adds from both Lamm and Perlmutter, both my wife and I are totally disgusted with both of them.  I don’t totally agree with Herb on the war but I feel dirty just reading or watching the stuff from the other two.

  7. These polls don’t seem to take into consideration the very large independent/unaffilated folks in this district (CD7).  Many whom I have talked to tell me that they are tired of the special interest politics in Washington and the state and that they want someone new, who doesn’t have ties to all the good old guys and special interests.  There is only one person in this race who that fits – we all know that it is Herb Rubenstein.  He will vote to get us out of Iraq soon and to end the graft and special interest politics in Washington.  Don’t count him down and out just yet.  Herb is here to win this election and to keep fighting for the interests of you and me.

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