March 09, 2011 08:12 PM UTC

Who Will be the Republican Presidential Nominee?

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• by: Colorado Pols

On Monday our friends at “The Fix” had an interesting story about the lack of a frontrunner in the Republican field for President is an historic anomaly:

In the ten contested Republican presidential primary races between 1952 and 2008 — nine open seat fights and the 1976 face-off between President Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan — Gallup polling has always shown a clear frontrunner by this time.

And, in eight of those ten contests, the polling frontrunner at that moment went on to be the party’s presidential nominee. (The exceptions: Barry Goldwater trailed Richard Nixon at this point in the 1964 election and John McCain trailed Rudy Giuliani at this point in the 2008 election.)

Of the eight frontrunners in Gallup polling who went on to win the nomination, none took less than 31 percent in Gallup’s hypothetical primary ballots. (That was Reagan, again, in 1980.) The average for the eight frontrunners was just over 40 percent of the vote — well more than double the amount of support that Huckabee, Romney or Palin each received in the latest Gallup numbers on the race.

With that in mind, it’s time for another Colorado Pols poll! As always, we want to know what you think will happen — not your preference. If you had to bet the deed to your house, how would you bet on the GOP Presidential field?

Click after the jump to vote…

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