CO-04 (Special Election) See Full Big Line

(R) Greg Lopez

(R) Trisha Calvarese

90%

10%

President (To Win Colorado) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Biden*

(R) Donald Trump

80%

20%↓

CO-01 (Denver) See Full Big Line

(D) Diana DeGette*

90%

CO-02 (Boulder-ish) See Full Big Line

(D) Joe Neguse*

90%

CO-03 (West & Southern CO) See Full Big Line

(D) Adam Frisch

(R) Jeff Hurd

(R) Ron Hanks

40%

30%

20%

CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado) See Full Big Line

(R) Lauren Boebert

(R) Deborah Flora

(R) J. Sonnenberg

50%↑

15%

10%↓

CO-05 (Colorado Springs) See Full Big Line

(R) Dave Williams

(R) Jeff Crank

50%↓

50%↑

CO-06 (Aurora) See Full Big Line

(D) Jason Crow*

90%

CO-07 (Jefferson County) See Full Big Line

(D) Brittany Pettersen

85%↑

 

CO-08 (Northern Colo.) See Full Big Line

(D) Yadira Caraveo

(R) Gabe Evans

(R) Janak Joshi

60%↑

35%↓

30%↑

State Senate Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

80%

20%

State House Majority See Full Big Line

DEMOCRATS

REPUBLICANS

95%

5%

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors
October 09, 2020 06:53 AM UTC

Friday Open Thread

  • 45 Comments
  • by: Colorado Pols

“Fascism was all aesthetics. There was no core principle to it. There was no truth to it.”

–John Cusack

Comments

45 thoughts on “Friday Open Thread

    1. I switched onto Fox last night and was confronted by the Mark Levin screed.  OMG.  Anyone choosing to watch this network for more than 15 minutes will be brain washed and radicalized.  I'm afraid the MI plot is just the start of violent attacks encouraged by both Trump and Pence who refuse to say they will accept the results of the election.

  1. WOTD from Rachel Bitecofer: New Website; Her Congressional Predictions.

    Rachel Bitecofer made great predictions for the 2018 Congressional elections, based in large part because she recognized that "negative partisanship" had come to dominate voters' decision making. 

    She has just gone independent from the Niskanen center and created her own website. Today she releases her 2020 Congressional predictions,  proclaiming high expectations for Democratic success. Her analysis is pretty wordy, and would have benefited by splitting up into several articles. However, there is a lot to chew on for political junkies like us.

    Biticofer looks at is willing to out on a limb more than other estimators. She moves races to lean or likely sooner, and her "toss-up" category is more of a "reach" category, or a "competitive race that could surprise". She is bullish on a number of races in Texas that aren't on the radar for others.

    The methodology used to build this forecast is fundamentally different than what is featured in other prominent political models. Specifically for our Presidential forecast, political polling survey results are not used to inform our modeling, other than for determining incumbent approval ratings. The input criteria used in our modeling directly reflects measurements of potential for negative partisanship and demographic realignment to occur among defined electorates. Therefore, previous election data and demographic data are heavily relied on in this model.

    There is a chart where she rates the few dozen races she considers interesting.

    She also remarks on how absolutely stable the polling between Biden and Trump has been, going back all the way to 2017. Basically, the cake is baked for the 90% of Democratic-aligned and Republican-aligned tribes and even independent-leaners, meaning there are very few persuadables, and there is virtually no third-party sympathy to cause uncertainty. In other words 2020 is not 2016.

    The better barometer for competition this cycle is the scope of the Democrat’s offensive field. 

    As of September, we’re living in a world where Democrats have forced Lindsey Graham to raise money and actively campaign to defend his South Carolina Senate seat. Although Jaime Harrison is an unusually charismatic candidate, he could be Barack Obama and not make Graham have to play defense in South Carolina. The fact that the Lincoln Project is dropping $1 million on television ads on that race indicates just how wretched the fundamentals are for the GOP.

    So, if Harrison is making Graham nervous and drawing large ad buys down in South Carolina, North Carolina is likely to break in Democratic favor for both the presidential and Senate map. Subsequently Georgia, a state with far better fundamentals than South Carolina, becomes much more interesting heading into the final stretch.

    As for the Midwest, as predicted back in July of 2019, it’s obvious that Democrats have significant strength in the region (again, Republicans could not even mount real challenges to Democratic Senate incumbents in Pennsylvania or Michigan in 2018. Although the race was exceedingly tight, Democrats successfully tossed incumbent Republican governor Scott Walker out of office that cycle). 2020 polling in the Midwest has been decidedly in favor of Biden.

     

      1. I agree. In this case she should take into account the fact that the Republicans selected a truly inappropriate candidate. But, I guess that isn't in her methodology.

  2. At least he's not our Senator. Even Cory knows that the "third rail" is deadly.

    From The American Independent:

    Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) said Tuesday that U.S. spending on Social Security, Medicare, and other entitlement programs are "not under control" and could lead to "a runaway debt crisis."

    In an interview with a local radio network, Perdue seemed to suggest that cutting funding to the popular entitlement programs — which provide health insurance and benefits to American seniors— would help reduce the national debt.

      1. Speaking of rich people, our junior senator's sugar daddies are hard at work with their tax windfalls:

        1. Heard yesterday on NPR

          ANAND GIRIDHARADAS: So Jeff Bezos, founder and CEO of Amazon, has 876,000 employees around the world.

          And if Jeff Bezos were to wake up feeling incredibly generous for everything they have done to help him become the world's richest person, he could give each of them a $105,000 bonus.

          CORNISH: Now, that's if he'd calculate using Bezos' net worth as of August this year. Giridharadas, who wrote the book "Winners Take All: The Elite Charade Of Changing The World," says you might be thinking, sure, OK, a nice thought, but no one in a position like Jeff Bezos would simply give away all that money.

          GIRIDHARADAS: And your listeners should be reassured that if he were to do that, he would have exactly as much money as he had at the beginning of this year, before the pandemic.

  3. Politico's write-up on Trump's proposed $7.9 billion bribe to keep the old fucks from voting for Biden is available here. It's a pretty good read. It'll be interesting to see whether CMMS can get the cards properly platinumed, festooned with Trump's name and likeness, and into the hands of old fucks by election day.

    Medicare recipients needn't worry, though. Surely this $7.9 billion boondoggle will in no way affect the solvency of the program.

      1. Us old fucks also appear to be breaking for Biden in a big way. I may be an old fuck, but I'm not senile enough to believe that $200 is anything other than an offensively low bribe attempt.

        1. Hey, it's enough to buy a bottle of aspirin every week down at City Market, with enough left over for a day-old donut from the bake shop.

          Surely that will sway minds.

      1. and in 2 months, we can imagine what could have happened if Lennon lived another 40 years.    RIP, 8 December 1980

        and SMH that we still don’t treat the mentally ill better or limit their access to weapons much better.

  4. Vote NO on the HOT MESS of Amendment B

    Ballotpedia discusses the Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score for level of education needed to read and comprehend the ballot measure. Amendment B has a Title Grade of 43, requiring post-college graduate level of education. As presented, Amendment B is confusing and complex.

    This repeal of the Gallagher Amendment should go back to the drawing board.

    Searched Colorado Republican Party website. Appears silent.

    Then Colorado Democratic Party website > Voter's Guide > Vote YES to repeal.

    Finally Douglas County GOP. “Amendment B” on your ballot –  DCGOP takes no position.

    1. Grade Level 43 is about college sophomore/junior level. 

      Evaluating an issue on the complexity of blue book language avoids the issues it addresses.

      There are already plenty of opinion pieces about Amendment B available with even more to come. Gather more information from other, less opaque sources.

      Then call your legislators and ask them to revise the bluebook process.

    2. As a debate judge, I tend to decide on things NOT based on their complexity, but by comparing policy outcomes. 

      I know what a mess the current Gordian Knot of constitutional entanglements has meant.  Several seemingly reasonable people have written about the benefits of Amendment B.  So what do you think would be worse if Amendment B passed?

  5. It’s what you’d expect if #SchoolHouseRock went to one of Betsy Devos’ humdinger private schools and then got an advanced degree in civics from Ttump University: (warning:mixing dexamethasone with desperation is a very bad combination)

      1. I have to admit, I thought a hand-job for every Repug might have been a bridge too far for even the most ardent Ttumpican! Can you imagine the dreams he must be having on these steroids derived from fetal tissue????

            1. That's only going to happen if he can 'borrow' them from the janitor's closet in the federal facility where he works.  He's staring at the likely prospect of a 50% reduction in his household income come January. 

      1. She deserves it. Her office does great constituent service, wrote an effective letter on a matter affecting inmates in the Jeffco jail, which is in her district.

Leave a Comment

Recent Comments


Posts about

Donald Trump
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Lauren Boebert
SEE MORE

Posts about

Rep. Yadira Caraveo
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado House
SEE MORE

Posts about

Colorado Senate
SEE MORE

40 readers online now

Newsletter

Subscribe to our monthly newsletter to stay in the loop with regular updates!