President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Kamala Harris
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) V. Archuleta
98%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Marshall Dawson
95%
5%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
50%
50%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(D) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank
(D) River Gassen
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) John Fabbricatore
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen
(R) Sergei Matveyuk
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
70%↑
30%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 30, 2010 02:15 AM UTC
32 Comments
There is a mathematical case that can be made that the R’s can take the State Senate. However, it is not a plausible scenario. But the arithmetic is really pretty simple. It takes 18 seats to be the majority party in the Senate, and the D’s start with 10 holdover Senators – the Republicans begin with 8 holdovers.
That means of the 17 seats which are up, the Republicans have to win 11. When you factor out the seats that the R’s have no chance of winning – Romer, the Sandoval vacancy, Johnston, Steadman, Tochtrop the Democrats come up to 14.
When you factor out the seats that the D’s cannot win – the Penry vacancy, the Schultheis vacancy, Renfroe, Harvey and Lundberg, the R’s come up to 13.
It means, then, that the R’s have to win 5 seats by defeating some combination of the Tapia vacancy, holding the Kester R seat, Schwartz, Whitehead, Morse, the Gibbs vacancy, the Keller vacancy, – assuming that they hold the Kester seat, they have to pretty much run the table and upset some solid Democrats like Morse.
A realistic case for the R’s is that they narrow the margin by 1-2 seats, but they don’t take the majority.
I have not seen much commentary on this.
Well put certainly, but that’s the deal. Not much to debate other than crap that has nothing to do with nothing… like H-man did.
Oddly uninteresting.
Thanks for writing it out and well though, abraham.
Lundberg’s seat has been up for a LOT of discussion – the Democrat 527s have been putting a fair amount of money into his opponent, pointing out that the district has been represented by moderate Republicans and Democrats over the past 15 years – Stan Matsunaka-D and Steve Johnson-R.
I don’t know how moderate Lundberg’s opponent, Richard Ball, is, or even if he’s a moderate. But there’s a story on Lovelandpolitics.com that said former Rep. Bill Kaufman, a Republican, was part of the effort to get Ball to run, and that he has the endorsement of the pro-business community that also put Don Marostica in the House (and Ball has been endorsed by both Kaufman and Marostica).
Lundberg is known primarily for the “God, gays and guns” agenda – that might have worked well in the House district but it will be interesting to see if the same is true for the Senate.
They are looking at stronger than expected R turnout and weaker D turnout. Looks like 7%. Anybody know what the D’s numbers for turnout differential projection is?
People were writing about how R’s vote early. 2008 D’s were slightly ahead in early voting, R’s ended up with 37,900 more. So far early voting R up by 6 and climbing.
is one of the perils of listening to people like you.
…where Tancredo leads Hickenlooper:
http://www.businessword.com/in…
One would think that is the first indication of a slight sampling problem.
Personally, I don’t know enough about the details of the Senate or House races and candidates to come to a conclusion.
Suggesting an alternative to the Pols popular view certainly evokes a bit of venom. Perhaps kinder souls will emerge in a few days.
I’m sure an operative like you has all the inside dope on Republican talking points.
Too bad Republicans can’t come up with any better candidates than Dan Maes. What kind of a boat anchor do you think that worthless piece of shit will have on your anointed one. One percent or two percent of the vote? Will people who pick Hickenlooper then switch to Tea Party lightweight and John McCain look-a-like Kenny Boy Buck.
Gilpin County Commissioner Jeanne Nicholson endorsements
Democrats are more interested in recruiting and supporting candidates who have the best interests of the entire community as their highest aspirations. Nicholson has the talent, accomplishments in renewable buildings and defensible space planning along with experience with government budgets and unique local community dynamics like gaming and wildfires to be an excellent advocate for effective government services in Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) and the challenge of preserving our most precious heritage, our forests and mountains, while at the same time harvesting the benefits of renewable fuels that would otherwise add tinder to the wildfires. Democrats have got a great group of candidates who counter the incompetent ideologues who actively seek to be ruled by the corporations. I’ll vote Democratic any day Shill-man and feel like I have contributed to better government and better communities.
But RBI is invalid? Both are employed by campaigns.
If they really thought they were going to take the House, they would have released more specific numbers. They have no clue about either the House or the Senate.
I think you will find their model is off a few percentage points as to voter turnout which throws off the conclusion. The actual percentage of voter turnout they used was under 4%. It will actually be somewhere between 6% and 8% in my view.
With a little more than 1/2 the votes counted the number is 5.7%. In the last election Dems outvoted Republicans in the early voting and Republicans ended up outvoting Dems by about 38K, a pick up of about 50K. Here with a R +5.7% baseline, if it holds steady and about 1.7 million vote, that means about 97,000 more Republicans or if it picks up like 2008 more like 125K more Republicans.
Apparently not, because the fact filled, mathematical equations of what or can happen in the state senate is above you.
You just don’t give up, do you?
by the smell of your own bullshit.
What you keep forgetting is that Republicans are running dredge candidates who aren’t qualified to work at a car wash. Nicholson is going to win Senate District 16 and replace Dan Gibbs. Christopher O’Dell, who was chairman of the Jefferson County Republican Party said of her opponent Tim Leonard when he endorsed Nicholson that he was “a Republican ideologue who is completely out of touch with the average Coloradan (who) won’t support rational alternatives in these difficult times.”
Actually you better hope that Republicans fail in this detour into fanaticism. If this crop of crap ever gets in power, it will set back future Republican efforts the same way John Andrews being president of the Senate resulted in Democrats achieving majority control for the first time in four decades. You should be very afraid for your party that these jokers are the same quality as Dan Maes..
The Gibbs seat stays Dem.
to gain control of the senate.
This is a tall task for a bunch of jackasses whose combined IQ isn’t big enough to understand that a democracy works best when there is bi-partisan effort to solve mutual problems and effective government means roads get plowed and wildfires put out.
But Mike is a good man and will have something to say. Unlike the Tea Party crowd, some legislative republicans actually believe in trying to accomplish things for Colorado.
I’ve heard only bad things about Kopp, but I do enjoy a Republican who genuinely cares about Colorado–I miss the bumper crop of them we had when I was first becoming politically aware at age 6-8 or so.
I mostly disagree with them, but I think in a lot of cases their efforts improved bills. And unlike in washington they did step up and compromise in many cases.
I can think of the natural gas bill. Any other examples?
Insurance reform…gender equity…renewable energy mandates…water quality….
From the last few legislative sessions?
but most legislators of both parties are sincere people. Watch them in committee, not the floor, and notice how earnestly they will work together. I remember watching Amy Stephens and Morgan Carroll in committee and they were sharing good ideas and information. When things hit the floor, it’s more confrontational. But yeah, I’ve seen make make genuine contributions. I wouldn’t vote for him, but I can respect him.
The State House is very likely to switch to GOP control. The State Senate at best will be be 18 to 17 Democratic.
Why haven’t you updated the latest ballot returns numbers? Not looking so good for you anymore?
the House is more problematic…..we shall see
…the softest landing Jesse Mallory could find after running the J.J. Ament campaign into the ground.
It seems to me Brophy is piggy-backing his campaign on Tancredo, rather than the other way around which this sign suggests.
I really wonder what the person who made this sign mash-up was thinking. “Any publicity is good so long as they spell your name right?” (Whoops.) “Two great tastes that taste great together?” “I have a spare hunk of plywood but no sign post?”
Your guess is as good as mine. But I think we can put SD1 in the column of “likely to switch from R to D” come Tuesday. Mike Bowman has been burning the miles all over this huge district, and a number of my Republican friends are praising him in public, saying if he’s this pro-active NOW, imagine what he will do when he’s in office!
Yes, I am a Bowman fan!
if Brophy loses then the whole R thing goes down.
I’m not (quite) egotistical enough to think that as goes SD-1, so goes the state. On the other hand. the Eastern Plains are strongly red-tinged. If we do send Brophy home to get on his bike and peddle his papers there, I would take it as a sign that a highly qualified and very hard working Dem (like Mike Bowman) can win in ANY sector Colorado’s got.