CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
50%↑
15%
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 28, 2010 05:08 AM UTC
71 Comments
We now have a third release from the Secretary of State’s office. There have now been 674,864 votes cast, 280,283 Republican and 239,950 Democrat. The cumulative percentages now are 41.53% Republican, 35.56 Democrat and 22.9 others. But that is only part of the news.
The trending of the three data drops show things are getting worse for Dems and picking up a bit for independents. The percentages of the three drops are as follows:
Oct 20 R-42.19, D-36.9 Difference 5.3 Other 20.9
Oct 25 R-41.32, D-35.38 Difference 5.9 Other 23.3
Oct 27 R-41.21 D-34.62 Difference 6.6 Other 24.2
For those who study Colorado Senate elections, three Counties stand out in predicting a winner. In 2002 a Republican won, in 2006 a Democrat and in 2008 another Democrat. All three times the party that prevailed carried Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer counties.
Don’t look now, but guess which party is up by more than 5% in each of those three counties?
The early polling had a model which had Republicans voting slightly higher than Dems. Today’s ColoradoPols poll used a 4% differential. The current difference is 6% and at the rate we are going will likely end up with a 7% differential, 41-R, 34-D and 25% others.
The wave just keeps on growing.
Buyers remorse.
No abortion exception for rape.
No abortion exception for incest.
I guess at least he does not wear high heals.
I have to say that the alcoholism comment was one of the most honest things I’ve heard him say.
I don’t know what his suppressed urge is, but women’s shoes would explain a few things. Just sayin’.
“I guess at least he does not wear high heals in public.”
Can’t be rape if end up pregnant. So forced to carry rapist offspring.
They haven’t found the slightest thing to crow about.
do you really think you’re helping your side?
Missouri voted for the winner of the Presidential election every year for 100 years…until it didn’t in the last election. There’s no such thing as a “bellwether,” not a state or a county.
You are really desperately cherry-picking data to try and cover up the fact that Buck has been sinking in every poll since the rape story broke.
If a Dem doesn’t win two of those three counties, it’s hard to see where he or she gets the votes to win statewide. Denver and Boulder and Pueblo don’t have enough extra votes.
compared to how he did in the PPP polling before the rape story broke. Hate to get all “facty” with you.
Pols wrote:
But based on the vote totals above, Rs are 41.8% of voters while Ds are 35.8% — which is the same as what Pols reported happened in 2006, Rs “outvoted Democrats by 6 points.” Or am I missing what Pols meant by 6-pt gap? (Not a snarky question.)
In midterm elections. So no sign of the vaunted wave.
We’ve said repeatedly that this doesn’t necessarily mean there won’t be a Republican wave…it just isn’t happening yet. For all the talk of an excited GOP base, they aren’t turning out any more than they ever do.
They seem to be sitting out this election and not just in Colorado.
Just sayin’.
for all the focus on GOTV, while important, convincing the swing voters will be much more critical. I think Colorado Dems have done much better than their counterparts in other parts of the country (although California is shaping up to be a Dem sweep of major races too).
In 2006 in most races in Colo, Ds had a significant enough advantage over Rs among independents in many races to overcome the almost 6% R voter edge. In 2010 the D win among independent looks to be much smaller, so Ds cannot overcome the same R voter advantage. An R voter advantage of 5+ sinks Bennett and several other Ds not named Hickenlooker, imho. I’ve still got hope, but these numbers sure as hell aren’t helping it. The enthusiasm is not nearly as big as forecast, but it if exists at all it’s probably enough in this state with where the inedendents are at.
and Bennet is still ahead.
I think a lot of Norton supporters would have liked to see Buck apologize for his sexist comments during the primary. Instead Buck radically ramped up the sexism, and now he’s jumping the shark of sexism.
Why has Bennet lost all the men?
Are they not attracted to his wimpy do whatever Obama wants in DC record?
If Bennet has the same deficit with men that Buck has with women why can’t they stand him?
Buck is explicitly appealing to them.
Why has Bennet lost all the men?
Are they not attracted to his wimpy do whatever Obama wants in DC record?
If Bennet has the same deficit with men that Buck has with women why can’t they stand him?
flip flopping on issues is wimpy.
Buck is wimpy.
The Dead Guvs are spinning away.
Their main point is that the turnout is going to look more like 2006 (it of the Democratic “wave”) than what the talking heads have predicted.
I wont pretend to be an expert on voter turnout, but I’ve lived in Colorado long enough to know that it doesn’t always fit the mold. Pols could be right–the voter turnout differential could be negligible this year in Colorado. But that doesn’t mean the same will be true for other states.
I still think Buck and Hick each win by around 3%, Gardner by 6-10%, Tipton by 4-8%, and Frazier by 1-3%. Only five days and we’ll know…
In 2006 unaffiliateds and some Republicans broke for Obama. That ain’t happening this year.
You’re kind of a stupid guy.
… i mean, if you want to join Libertad in the first-ever penalty box stint, why not cut loose and tell Bj how you really feel?
Do you even own a calendar? Or know how long a senator serves?
plus a little polishing on his internets/Chestnut astroturfing skills.
The young man is indeed a dim bulb.
n/t
Our main point is that, thus far, turnout for Republicans is basically the same that it has always been. There hasn’t yet been a spike indicative of a “wave.” Maybe it will all happen at the polls on Election Day, but it’s not happening in early voting.
The wave is actually the middle finger, and it is pointed at Dan Maes…
n/t
Denver Dem turnout: 28% of active voters
Denver Rep turnout: 29% of active voters
Boulder Dem turnout: 31% of active voters
Denver Rep turnout: 29% of active voters.
The only county I saw with a higher percentage of Dem turnout than Rep turnout was Mesa county, but I only looked at the top 11. Mesa Dems 40% turn out, Reps 38%.
Dems big two counties to run up the score:
Denver Dems + 22,914
Boulder Dems + 10,214
Republican big two counties to run up the score:
El Paso Republican + 21,995
Douglas Republican +14,642
Bellweather counties:
Arapahoe Republican + 4,783
Jefferson Republican +5,220
Larimer Republican + 4,523
The enthusiasm gap keeps growing:
1st release: 5.3% R advantage
2nd release: 5.9 R advantage
3rd release: 6.6 R advantage
After the Dems lose the Senate seat and at least two Congressional seats will ColoradoPols be able to see a wave?
Nah.
How do the Dems explain the ever widening gap in the numbers?
Dick Morris indicated last night that the Buck internal polling had him up by 5%. That seems about right. The morning Joe squad on MSLSD yesterday all picked Buck. Bennet had to lend his campaign money in the last couple weeks ($500K) to keep the doors open. Poll out showing Salazar down by about 4%. DCCC never spent on Markey. Bennet showing on KOA mocked when his staff’s sending questions to KOA is revealed. The momentum keeps growing. Wave?
Why is the race still tied even though Pubs have a 40,000 vote tally advantage over Dems (8%), so far?
How many times does H-man have to tell you ?
Catch the wave !
All I need is some cool buds and tasty waves, and Buck is in !
A sea change ! A freaking repbulican Tsunami !
ITS. A. WAVE !
If the poll samples a smaller percentage of republicans than actually vote, the poll is off.
are not distinguishable from tied.
Your are arguing whether or not the poll samples reflect the real world. Reasonable question, but the only way to determine this is to compare the poll results to the real world. Can’t do this until Tuesday.
Arguing which poll is more accurate is an (non-)academic exercise right now. Fine hobby to have, but not very productive.
I emphasize that these comparisons are only marginally academic. Informed scholars have been taught that you don’t compare models to models. Rather, you compare models to the real world. If you do the latter, you can attempt to develop a model that compares closely to the real world. If you do the former, you are performing an academic version of what Christine O’Donnell campaigned against in 1996.
even Tuesday’s results can’t be directly compared to any earlier polls because the earlier polls only reflect what the results would have been if the election were held the day the poll was taken. As a predictive tool, they (polls) have limited utility. People seem to change with the winds…
Now exit polling is directly comparable and is used to determine whether there are improprieties in the election results. These are very strong indicators.
Don’t know what he’s saying because I’m checking for his sig before accidentally reading even one more of his inane comments. Only know that you are still aggravating yourselves needlessly. Think about joining our support group for avoiding the temptation to pay an iota of attention to meaningless regurgitated nonsense. Since the Beej has no influence as an opinion leader, none, zip, nada, there is really no higher need to refute him. Trust me. Just saying “no” is very soothing and good for the blood pressure.
a few days after I quit responding. I feel like an organ grinder who just got off work. It’s very liberating to not be chained to a monkey.
“It’s very liberating to not be chained to a monkey.”
that it would be OK to respond to Republicans as long as I put no more effort into my posts than they did. Spending 15 minutes debunking some crazy offhand remark is indeed an aggravation, but making a quick joke is no real burden.
P.S. I wonder how many people now have “The Greatest Love of All” stuck in their heads.
I just can’t stand even reading Beej anymore.
The poll Pols touted yesterday included a 3% R “voter” advantage (that is, their pool had 39.6% Rs and 36.4% Ds, if I got the numbers right), and Bennett squeaked out a 1% “win.” Assuming the poll is accurate within the three groups, doesn’t that suggest that a 4% R voter advantage in the actual election is the largest Bennett can overcome? If so, how is the 6%+ advantage as of yesterday good news for him or Ds generally? Where do we close that 2% gap? If you can’t tell, I’m desperately looking for a reason for confidence here, so help me out (and yes, H-man, I know you think I have no reason for confidence.
You hit on the crux of the Dem problem. If it is a small differential, small stuff can make a big diference. If it is a big differential all the small stuff does not matter.
The real number as I see it will be Dem 34, R 41.
If it is 39.6 R to 36.4 D, the Dems got a chance.
The early returns tell us what the answer is likely to be.
More Republicans tend to vote either by early voting or through mail-in ballots while Democrats vote more on election day. If that happens the percentage margin may be closer and Senator Bennet wins.
ColoradoPols is correct there isn’t any wave yet but there could be on election night depending on how the unaffiliated voters vote. Many of them either don’t vote or vote on eleciton day. If there is a wave, it will come from the unaffiliated voters.
The Senate election really comes down to turnout and a good GOTV could make all the difference.
Last election, 2008, Dems were ahead of Republicans in early voting when it ended, not the other way around. Now Republicans are ahead by 6% and growing.
Most people will have already voted by election day.
The current vote percentages are:
R: 41.53% D: 35.56% I: 22.31%
A small difference, but significant becuase it holds steady with the 6% you show as the last spread, rather than growing. (the missing .6% is the “other” not shown in Pols’ numbers above)
That ought to be an infraction.
Most people will have already voted by election day? 1.6 million people voted in 2006. That total should be higher in 2010. As of yesterday, about 675,000 ballots have been counted.
You’re basing all of your ideas on prior assumptions. We all would have expected, before ballots were sent out, that most people would have voted by Election Day. But it isn’t happening that way. This depends on your definition of “most,” perhaps, but there should be a hefty percentage of people voting on Tuesday when you consider the voting trends thus far. Either there is a big E-Day turnout, or turnout is historically low and hundreds of thousands of people don’t vote at all. We’d guess the former, and not the latter.
“Permanent mail-in” status could be elected, I believe.
even on the best system for keeping up. Many ballots may have been received since Monday that are not yet showing up. I know I dropped off my husband’s and son’s Monday . Mine was dropped off a week before. And we still got a robo “you haven’t sent in your ballot yet” call today, Thurs. Ballots received Monday and since ought to be a pretty big chunk. There is usually a big influx of early returns, the people who fill it out and mail or drop off almost immediately, and again during the home stretch which is where we are now. Many of these may not be showing up yet.
I did not say most people have already voted and are part of the 675K votes we have seen.
I would guess somewhere in the range of 55% to 70% of the votes will have been cast before Tuesday. What number say you?
I’m guessing its closer to 70 pct this year, just because I think there is less enthusiasm. But I gotta admit, I don’t know.
Early voting ends tomorrow, so we should have hard data soon on numbers cast, not necessarily total turnout. But then mail ballots will trickle in through tuesday by snail mail or drop-off.
6% more Republicans voted in 2006 and the Democrats won a resounding victory.
This year the polls show the Democrats are voting for Bennet and the Republicans are voting for Buck. Therefore the independent voters (primarily made up of unaffiliated) will decide the election. If there is a wave, or even a ripple, toward the Republican candidates in close races it will decide the election in favor of people like Mr. Buck.
One of the polls the other day, I think it was the PPP poll, attempted to poll those who had already voted and that poll had Bennet up 49% to 46% among those voters. Senator Bennet has undoubtedly closed the gap between himself and Mr. Buck but its so close I can’t predict who will win.
will carry the day, as they usually seem to in Colorado.
that’s for sure.
it is the only chance they seem to have based on CPs astute analysis of early voting trends so far compared to ’06.
quite frankly, the ones I am talking to aren’t all that enamored of the Republican Party, either. They are just pissed off so if I were the Republican Party, I wouldn’t bank my future on the results of this one election.
There’s one other red flag for me with U’s this year–their turnout, so far, is awful. It looks like they are sitting this one out altogether compared to past elections. We Dems have a lot of work to do to bring them back into the fold by 2012.
To quote H-Man: “If it is a big differential all the small stuff does not matter.”
H E A V Y Republican crossovers erase any “two percent gap.”
Or at least hope.
day. We’ve got about 29% of active registered voters voting so far, and 63% in 2006.