October 21, 2010 04:18 PM UTC

DCCC - No money for Markey

• 6 Comments
• by: H-man

If you want to know what is really going on, don’t pay attention to what people have to say, look at what they do.  

This week the DCCC spent $236K on behalf of John Salazar in CD-3.  They spent $ 147K on behalf or Ed Perlmutter in CD-7.  They spent $0 on behalf of Betsy Markey in CD-4.  In fact, that is the same amount they spent on her behalf to date.

There are three competitive Congressional races in Colorado, all seats held by Democrats.  One district, CD-4, the voter registration by party favors republicans by 12%, 39% to 27%; another CD-3 favors Republicans by 4%, 37% to 33%; the third CD-7 favors Democrats by 8%, 38% to 30%.

Local true believer Democrats have been posturing that CD-4 in this wave election is winnable.  Indeed the ultimate true believer, ColoradoPols has the race as even in the Big Li(n)e.  That is what people are saying, but what are the people that matter doing?  

The DCCC has limited resources, but acting in the interest of keeping as many seats Democrat as possible, is allocating those resources where it thinks it has a chance of forestalling a republican takeover of Congress.  Currently 538 gives them a 25% chance of keeping the losses to under 38 seats.

So how is the DCCC allocating its resources?

The National Journal reports http://hotlineoncall.nationalj… :  

The Democratic Congressional Committee is spending millions of dollars in key districts around the country on late independent expenditures, demonstrating the districts Democrats believe can be saved from a national wave — and the members the party believes are already too far behind their Republican rivals to save.

In total, the DCCC spent $13.1 million on independent expenditure advertisements in 59 districts, according to FEC filings made late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Democrats are largely playing defense, while targeting only three Republican-held seats.

Where the DCCC didn’t spend money is as indicative as where it did. With two weeks to go, Democrats are using their checkbooks as acknowledgement that nearly a dozen members are beyond saving.

The DCCC did not spend money on behalf of Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Ohio), Debbie Halvorson (D-Ill.), Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), Alan Grayson (D-Fla.), Suzanne Kosmas (D-Fla.), Patrick Murphy (D-Pa.) and Steve Kagen (D-Wis.), the filings show. Republicans believe those seven seats are all but guaranteed to fall their way.

How do the national people in the know look at things?

Here is some prospective.  Most prognosticators expect the Republicans to pick up 50 to 60 seats. Nate Silver over at 538 and the New York Times indicates that CD-4 switches if 16 seats flip.  Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post has it at number 8.  Here is what he has to say:

8. Colorado’s 4th district (D): Just how much trouble is Rep. Betsy Markey (D) in? The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has yet to spend on her bid, making the race state Rep. Cory Gardner’s (R) to lose. (Previous ranking: 8)

http://voices.washingtonpost.c…

Public polling in the congressional races is spotty, but the national parties and the candidates all have quality polling available to them.  None of the public polling in CD-4 has had the incumbent in the lead.  Her national party has failed to fund her down the home stretch.  That tells you all I need to know about how this race ends.