CO-04 (Special Election)
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(R) Greg Lopez
(R) Trisha Calvarese
90%
10%
President (To Win Colorado)
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(D) Joe Biden*
(R) Donald Trump
80%
20%↓
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
90%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
90%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(D) Adam Frisch
(R) Jeff Hurd
(R) Ron Hanks
40%
30%
20%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert
(R) Deborah Flora
(R) J. Sonnenberg
30%↑
15%↑
10%↓
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Dave Williams
(R) Jeff Crank
50%↓
50%↑
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
90%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) Brittany Pettersen
85%↑
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(D) Yadira Caraveo
(R) Gabe Evans
(R) Janak Joshi
60%↑
35%↓
30%↑
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
October 12, 2010 12:51 AM UTC
56 Comments
Here’s another reason why we think some national prognosticators are really off on their assessment of CD-4. From a press release from the campaign of Democratic Rep. Betsy Markey:
I’ll give the Dem base credit. Even when their candidates seem to be past the point of no return – they continue to support them.
I can’t usually say the same about the GOP base.
Why, because a couple Republican shills post results from polls done by a Republican polling firm? This race has been close, with an edge to Cory, but in the real world it’s never seemed the way you characterize it.
This is a major haul for Markey. If this race comes down to TV time, Markey has the edge.
That’s a lot of cash for the 4th CD. Good for Betsy Markey.
Take note, Mr. Maes.
1-Betsy’s cash advantage
2-Betsy is from the Weld/Larimer/Boulder county metropolex that hosts 86 percent of the voters. Cory is from Yuma County.
3-Betsy has the support of the National Rifle Association, highly unusual for a Democrat. The NRA badge proves her conservative stance is for real.
4-It’s a four-way race, with an American Constitution Party candidate, Doug Aden, and an independent splitting the anti-incumbent vote.
5-Cory is sticking with his support of the Fertilised Eggs are People Amendment, anathema to the Soccer Moms who will decide this race.
5-Betsy’s advertising has been much more effective. Now, we know why $$$$$$$$$
6-Republican disarray, and abandonment of the party’s gubernatorial hopes, has to hurt down the ticket.
So, why it’s it a markey blowout?
CD4 is traditionally Republican turf. Cory is far more personable than Marilyn Musgrave. The young and minority voters who turned out for Obama in this district may skip this year.
so, it’s a toss-up.
…you think their endorsement “proves her conservative stance is for real.”
In any case, a “toss up” wherever Voyageur’s from is a blowout here on planet Earth. Cory’s going to win this race by at LEAST 5%. Could easily be double digits.
I mean, if you’re gonna shill, shill big?
By the way, why did his lead drop from 11 points to 3 points — in the latest version of the same poll — if he’s pulling away?
The kind BJ likes.
Could have fooled me…
Buck’s campaign going up in smoke.
Please waste as much money as possible on this race, Dems!
Please keep writing off, Markey, bj! One can only hope all the folks in Cory’s campaign are as arrogant and dismissive as you…I’m sure the last three weeks with a huge cash advantage won’t make a bit of a difference!
You guys should really just concentrate on the victory party!
They ain’t gonna buy it.
But Markey’s people won’t stop working. But like I said…please…keep it up…the sense around the 4th is that Mr. Gardner has taken a little too much for granted. Dems can only hope he continues to do so.
and will continue to do so. I can attest to that.
and that veterans are “pansies.” Somehow, I don’t think your word is worth much.
heard one person say that Gardner has taken anything for granted. They have been working very hard. For example…they have been attending debates!
would you be undecided in this race?
Just curious how a misogynist’s mind works.
I was an avid supporter of Marilyn Musgrave. Is she not a woman? sxp151 you really need to get over yourself on this woman thing. It simply is not true.
You are so caught up in it I have to wonder what kind of a devient you are? It’s borderline weird to be honest.
Oh, and by the way…I love most of the female R elected officials in this great state.
Makes me throw up in my mouth a little.
What a way to out yourself there, Mr. Buck.
I say world class GOTV.
But you get my point.
Do you need the video?
… but it is not going to be more than $800K.
A Republican running in CO-04, with this targeting from the National Party should not get out-raised in the final reporting period of this election. It’s gonna sting if he didn’t out-raise Betsy (which I seriously doubt), and he’ll have to be very unhappy (and maybe a little embarrased) with anything less than $750K.
In campaign speak there’s
faux dough (see Maes, Flerlage)
low dough (see Buck, Coffman)
and
the real deal. This is the real deal+.
Congrats to Team Markey. This kind of overachievement is hard work, worthy of praise. And congrats to Ms Markey – no one would write checks if they didn’t believe. Rock on!
1. She has done a superb job representing her district. Some ofnthe best constituent service ever, incredible outreach to everyone, speaking upmproudly about why she voted the way she did on the key issues.
2. She is a genuinely nice person. It’s hard to kick someone nice (and effective) out of office.
Stimulus.
ObamacareВ®.
Co-sponsor of EFCA?!?!?! What was she thinking?
She can raise all the money she wants. It’s over.
“Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are not all that shocked nor offended to discover that republicans along with trotting out the same old failed ideas. tea bag republicans, will vote against their OWN views if President Obama agrees with them.” ~ Froward69
Buckley is Dead. most likely the last of the intelligent republicans too.
nice trademark there, we haven’t been using that term any way. so no leasing agreement for you LB
“Health Care reform” is the proper term and that’s what it accomplished anyway.
It’s not over until Nov 2. Markey will surprise you LB.
Did you google “DPRK” yet?
Again, I can’t believe I just responded to the parrot on the shoulder of Coloradopols. Shame on me..
the most overrated right-wing racist of all time.
But I will try to put this in perspective. It’s perhaps the most contentious congressional race in Colorado history, thus it was bound to draw LOTS of money from both sides. Second, she is the incumbent, and everyone was aware long ago (ie 2008) that this would be another epic battle in 2010. Cory had to wade through the CD-4 primary, and couldn’t fully kick-start his fundraising until he officially claimed the nomination.
I’m still calling this race over, and I’d still place a wager with any one of you that Cory is sworn into the 112th Congress. So enjoy this silver lining while it lasts.
I’ve suggested dinner with several folks, but thus far, none of the bloggers on this site seem to want to put more than a beer on it. So, my wager is this, though Frascas is outside the district, dinner there (in Boulder, like 18th & Pearl), and a nice bottle of Chateauneuf du Pape. Expect the bill to hover between $325 and $375 for 2.
Seems like a no-brainer if you’re sure. I’ll even let you berate me about my lack of political, or other, accumen, during the entire dinner.
And, I’ll even be so generous as to give you the same odds I’ve offered before. I’ll take Markey -2 (which means, for the uninitiated on this site, that if Markey wins, but by less than 2%, then I pay the bet as though she’d lost).
There’s your wager. Bring it on.
I seem to remember that we did, but can’t remember exactly what over.
My recollection is that I expected a healthcare bill to pass prior to the end of 2009.
In retrospect, it was a silly expectation, and in true Ken Buck fashion, I have worked to learn from that mistake.
By the way, the idea that I actually “pay” the bet, kind went up in smoke at the beginning of the year (with plans other people involved and concerns of in-person meetings, etc. – truthfully, I don’t remember why – I’ve never got to meet an FPE before. It’d be like meeting Sting or something… 😉 ), so what say you attend Frascas after 11/2. I’ll buy for you, and whoever loses the above, can pay for me.
I think you’re off the hook as we didn’t get to have a meet up due to everyone’s schedules. We’ll hopefully do something this year.
…should I win, as I’m not a big wine person. Actually, I don’t really drink much at all.
Cap the damages at $375 for your dinner (I’m not paying for unlimited appetizers), and if I win I’ll tell you where to send the cash.
Although 108 comments doesn’t seem like a long enough history for this offer to have any integrity.
Truthfully, folks to argue politics with over a good meal are worth the risk. It’s a social invitation, with a who-pays wager, not a cash bet.
My expectation here is that we should be friends, arguing about politics as a hobby (or sometimes profession).
And, did you really say that I don’t have a decent history here? Really. October 4, 2010 – October 13, 2010, and you’re criticizing me?
Anyway. Dinner at Frascas (and $375 is for both of us). You don’t have to pay for the wine. No cash. That’s not fun.
And, just so you can’t turn around and say that I’m backing out. If Betsy loses, or wins by less than 2 pts, I will buy this dinner for some well deserving, community chosen, participant on this blog. I’m sure we can do like we do with front page posters and nominate and then vote.
Now take your week-old account and…
This account is a week old. But I only created it because my other account (almost two years old, if I remember right) I lost my password for.
I’ll take your bet though. Dinner at Frascas. $375. Never been there. It better be good, though I imagine nothing will compare to the taste of victory on November 2nd.
And it is friggin’ awesome. A couple guys from Thomas Keller’s restaurant, The French Laundry (Google that), opened it. May well be the best restaurant in CO.
Drop me a line at dave@lofdev.com, and we can figure out timing.
I’ll shoot you an e-mail soon. Might have to wait til tomorrow, but it would appear we’ve got plenty of time.
…joining us, although that would be up to Dave, and you would have to pay your own way.
Kidding… Any Polsters who want to join us would be welcome, as far as I am concerned. You’ll be on your own for dinner (unless you’re Laughing Boy), but the restaurant is awesome!
The DCCC has written off Markey and is not spending money on this race. The RNCC is engaged and is up with this.
It does not matter where the money comes from, just that it is spent well on your behalf.
DCCC has more than $700k reserved for TV in CD4, so let’s stop pushing that lie, k?
And hate to tell you, buddy, but if the race was already won, NRCC would not be running commercials.
The NRCC is famous for handicapping capable Dem candidates, and this provides the perfect forum for that in CD 4. They don’t just want her to lose, they want her our of the picture forever.
Betsy is smart, and she can fundraise. They are simply ending her career vs. a “bump” in the road for her.
I did compliment her, but in no way shape or form do I agree with how she has represented that Dist. I philosophically disagree with her, and I philosophically agree with kicking a “blue” dog when it’s down. This is smart politics on the part of the NRCC. Put her out of commission forever!