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October 06, 2010 09:02 PM UTC

DLCC Targets 4 state legislative seats

  • 7 Comments
  • by: Phoenix Rising

( – promoted by Colorado Pols)

The DLCC (Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee) each year picks the top races they feel are key to retaining or gaining control of the various State Legislatures.

Out of this year’s 2010 DLCC Top 40 Races, a full 10% (4 seats) are from Colorado – the most of any state.  They list HD-23 (Max Tyler), HD-27 (Sara Gagliardi), SD-5 (Gail Schwartz), and SD-20 (Cheri Jahn) as “critical” seats.  All are currently in Democratic hands; SD-20 is an open seat race.

They note in their blurbs that Colorado is a top target for the redistricting battle next year, though I think their panic over the GOP possibly gerrymandering themselves a couple of extra seats in the House is slim given our redistricting mechanisms.

Comments

7 thoughts on “DLCC Targets 4 state legislative seats

  1. GOP possibly gerrymandering themselves a couple of extra seats in the House is slim given our redistricting mechanisms.

     We use an independent commission to reapportion seats in the legislature itself.  But the legislature retains the power to redistrict U.S. House seats.  As the GOP Midnight Gerrymander proved, the results can be pretty vicious.  Of course, it would take an all GOP lege and the gov’s office to do that…and only H-man believes that will happen.  the more interesting possibility is what the Ds could do if they win the trifecta.  In that case, I’d expect an effort to make the current 5-2 division fairly permanent, probably by shedding some of the surplus democratic majority in Denver tothe 4th and 7th and maybe buttressing the 3rd by joining more Republicans to the G giveaways in 5 and 6.

    1. with some that are more competitive is a tough one, strategically, if the Democrats get to make the choice.

      Democrats hold CD-3 strictly on the force of Salazar’s personality and moderate politics, proven by his actions while in office.  The moment that someone else runs for that seat, the GOP will reclaim it.

      Markey won CD-4 through the utter incompetence of Marilyn Musgrave and through her own reputation for moderation.  If she wins this time around, it will be by a nose with a plurality made possible by third party candidates, and the Democrats will have to work to make her district safer for her.

      But, if Markey doesn’t win, there is going to be a temptation to trade some of Salazar’s more conservative turf in CD-3 for more moderate turf areas in the mountains that are now in CD-2 or CD-5, to bolster CD-2 and CD-7 with some of the liberal leaning urban areas in the I-25 corridor, and to sacrifice CD-4 in exchange for safer districts for the incumbents that Democrats have in office already.

      Perlmutter, Polis and Salazar aren’t going to come out and say that this is necessary after having won re-elections in their respective districts, but party leaders involved in the redistricting effort may favor caution if they only have four incumbents.

      1. Democrats hold CD-3 strictly on the force of Salazar’s personality and moderate politics, proven by his actions while in office.  The moment that someone else runs for that seat, the GOP will reclaim it.

        If Salazar weren’t running this year, there’s little doubt the Republicans would win the seat. But because he’s pretty much the embodiment of the district (and has some sway in Congress, if that counts for anything with voters), he’s favored.

        But that doesn’t mean it’s naturally an R seat. McCain won the district barely, as he did in the 4th, but the registration balance is almost even. Ontop of that, in roughly the same shape, the district has been represented by Democrats as much as it has Republicans stretching back to the 1970s. (Despite what the carpers might say, Campbell was a Democrat when he held the seat, as most certainly were Kogovsek and Evans.)

        The right Democrat has as much of a chance of taking it as the right Republican does.  

    2. for the state legislature, through the reapportionment commission, I recall the process last time being quite political.  I remember attending (at least) one meeting at which there was a string of incumbent legislators testifying before the commission, making every effort possible to make their own districts safer – for them.

  2. Those seats are good picks as the swing seats in this election for the General Assembly.  They are winnable, but are seats where extra resources could give the candidates that are being supported a boost.

  3. It would be interesting to know how they picked those seats.

    Does anyone seriously think that either Schwartz or Jahn are in peril of losing?  I don’t know anyone who is predicting either of them to lose.

    Tyler is in a swing district that has seen both R’s and D’s hold it, but he had a pretty good head start because of the vacancy appointment and did not do anything dumb during the session.  It may be close, but he should prevail.

    The R’s want the Gagliardi seat, and it is another one that might be close.  But isn’t there a Libertarian in that race who might dampen the R votes?  Besides, she has done well by the unions and they will carry her through.

    I don’t see any of these 4 flipping – am I missing something?

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